Whether you want to believe it or not Nikola Jokic is the MVP of the NBA again this season by a mile and advanced stats prove it
The Nuggets superstar is having the best season statistically in the history of the NBA even without Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray
Advanced statistics used in this article are from StatMuse.com, ESPN.com, and NBA.com.
A lot of people who work in sports media have a recency bias and compare NBA stars like Joel Embiid and James Harden to Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant even though they haven’t played even a mere 10 games together yet.
The TV shows on networks such as ESPN and Fox Sports as well as other sports media platforms show highlights of Joel Embiid stepping back for a 3, Ja Morant dunking on a 7-footer, or Stephen Curry hitting a long 3-pointer, all of which make our jaws drop as NBA fans.
Rarely do we see highlights on sports media outlets of Nikola Jokic willing his 6th seeded Nuggets to victory with 40 point triple-doubles, elite passing skills to get guys open, good interior defense, and post up moves to get an easy bucket in crunch time.
Why is that though? Denver is a big market, sure it’s not Philadelphia or San Francisco, but neither is Memphis where they show Morant highlights all the time. It is because the narrative of the NBA is to be exciting, expand the game to new fanbases, and use those exciting players like Embiid, Curry, and Morant to make more money and garner a wider fanbase.
The NBA and media outlets don’t want Nikola Jokic to be the best player in the NBA or the face of the NBA simply because he doesn’t play a “sexy” or “exciting” form of basketball to the common fan. I understand that the NBA is a business and that they want to turn anything into profit at all times, but Jokic’s greatness is being overlooked by sports media platforms and it truly is a shame.
The Nuggets’ second-best player this season is either Monte Morris or Aaron Gordon, who are both solid basketball players but realistically are fringe starters and possibly role players on other teams. The Nuggets’ two other elite level players, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have missed the whole season yet Jokic has led this team to a 42-30 record and the 6th seed in the Western Conference. Based on roster talent alone, the Nuggets should not be in the playoff picture, but they are because of the historic season by Nikola Jokic.
Jokic won the MVP last season averaging 26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game to go along with an eFG% of 60.2, a TS% of 64.7, a 3PT% of 38.8, and an NBA leading PER of 31.36. That 31.36 PER not only led the league in 2020-2021 but also is the 12th overall PER season of all time.
This year, without Porter Jr. or Murray, Jokic has elevated his game to new heights averaging 26.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, 8 assists, and 1.4 steals with an eFG% of 61.2, a TS% of 65.2, a 3PT% of 35, and the HIGHEST PLAYER EFFICIENCY RATING (PER) OF ALL TIME at 32.70.
The only PER’s in a season even close to Jokic’s 2021-2022 mark are Giannis Antetoukounmpo’s 32.31 rating this year (this is also Antetoukounmpo’s best season yet and he should finish second in MVP voting) and Wilt Chamberlain’s 32.1 PER in 1961-1962. Other than Antetoukounmpo’s 2019-2020 season PER of 31.9, Michael Jordan’s 1987-1988 season PER of 31.7, another Wilt Chamberlain season PER in 1962-1963 of 31.8, and LeBron James’ 2008-2009 season PER of 31.8, no one is even close to Jokic or even Antetoukounmpo’s mark this season.
Voter fatigue is another factor to why Embiid and Morant are the hot names in the MVP conversation as Jokic won last season and Antetoukounmpo won the two seasons before that, even though those two players are by leaps and bounds the two best players in the NBA statistically over the past three years. Only LeBron James is close in advanced statistics to those two players over the past three years, not Embiid, Curry, Morant, or anyone else the NBA wants to push the narrative of MVP for.
Furthermore, Nikola Jokic’s 2021-2022 campaign is statistically THE BEST SEASON IN NBA HISTORY and unless Antetoukounmpo catches him in PER by the end of the season (which he probably won’t even though he is close) Jokic should be the unanimous MVP of the NBA regardless of how fun or exciting he is to watch.
It would be such a shame and a huge disappointment for the league if the NBA failed to recognize Jokic as the MVP after having the best season in the history of the game of basketball. However, this just shows you how disconnected sports media platforms are from advanced statistics that legitimately analyze a player’s efficiency and how important that player is to their team.
My mission for “Baller Sports Dialogue” is to use these advanced statistics that are crucial to the present and future of analyzing NBA players and teams to change the narrative on how we view NBA players and teams. Not many other people are doing this but me at the moment and I hope that this newsletter serves as an example, a basis, and an influence to future publications and newsletters on how to cover basketball players using advanced analytics.
Hopefully, the NBA gets it right and rewards Jokic the MVP since the conversation isn’t even a conversation at this point as Jokic is leaps and bounds better than everybody else. His eFG% of over 61 is unheard of for a guy that averages 4.2 3PT attempts and 17.3 total shot attempts per game, his usage percentage of 32.2 has never been utilized to the efficiency and precision that Jokic is utilizing it to, and his ability to take over a game with his post moves, shooting, playmaking, and defense are undeniable. Not to mention again as I said before, Jokic’s 2021-2022 campaign is the best season statistically in NBA history.
Sure it’s exciting to watch Ja Morant, Joel Embiid, and Stephen Curry play basketball, but its time for media outlets and NBA fans everywhere to realize that Nikola Jokic doesn’t just deserve the MVP for the second year in a row, he is the NBA’s best player and Antetoukounmpo is second, not Curry, not Embiid, and even though he is considered to be the greatest ever and he is producing at a level unprecedented for a player of his age, neither is 37 year old LeBron James. This is Nikola Jokic’s world and we’re just living in it.
Fantastic Analysis, Jokic is phenomenal!
Amazing article with such great points!