The Raptors have three of the most underrated players in basketball in Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr...so why are they losing so much?
Despite Siakam's career year, Anunoby's development on both ends of the floor, and Trent Jr.'s continued progression as a 3 and D star, the Raptors are having trouble winning
Coming off of a 48-34 2021-2022 season campaign that resulted in the 5 seed in the Eastern Conference and a competitive first round series against the 76ers, there was a lot of hope going into this season for the Raptors. They were down 0-3 to the 76ers in the playoffs last year, and battled back to force a game 6 against all odds.
Then rookie Scottie Barnes was coming off of a brilliant season that cumulated in a Rookie Of The Year win, and in the offseason, the organizations reluctance to include him in a Kevin Durant trade. Fred VanVleet became the first undrafted player in NBA history to make the All-Star team after averaging 20.3 points, 6.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Pascal Siakam was injured in the early part of the season, but had a remarkable second half performance that resulted in his first All-NBA team selection (3rd team).
Gary Trent Jr. came into the NBA a liability on the defensive end, but the Raptors developmental coaches turned him into one of the league’s best perimeter defenders and one of the better young scorers in the NBA last season, as he averaged over 1 steal and 16 points per game for the first time in his career (1.7 steals and 18.3 points per game). OG Anunoby took his scoring up a notch last season, averaging over 17 points per game for the first time in his career as well.
Going into the offseason, the Raptors young core of Siakam, Barnes, Anunoby, VanVleet, and Trent Jr. were virtually untouchable in most trade negotiations (except for Kevin Durant, which only Barnes was made unavailable).
However, this season hasn’t gone as planned as the Raptors are 20-25, 11th in the Eastern Conference Standings, and only have a defensive rating of 114.4 (ranked 19th in the NBA). In comparison, last year’s playoff team had a defensive rating of 109.9 (ranked 9th in the NBA) as defense was the team’s bread and butter to win games.
Last season, the team’s offensive rating of 112.1 ranked 15th and this season the team’s offensive rating of 114.5 ranks 13th in the NBA. Despite their offense improving this year, it doesn’t make any sense that with the same core as last season that their defense has underperformed to this magnitude. Trent Jr. is averaging a career high 1.7 steals per game and is playing some of the best perimeter defense in basketball.
Anunoby has taken his defensive dominance to another level, averaging a career high 2.2 steals per game and has the second-highest odds in Vegas (behind Jaren Jackson Jr., who is averaging 3.3 blocks per game) to win Defensive Player Of The Year. VanVleet is still averaging 1.5 steals per game and playing great on-ball defense, while Siakam has continued his brilliance on both ends of the floor this season.
On the offensive end of the floor, Siakam is averaging a career-high 25.5 points and 6.4 assists per game as he continues to drastically become a more polished and dominant offensive player, Trent Jr. is averaging a career high 18.5 points per game with a TS% of 57.3, Anunoby is averaging a career high 17.6 points per game with a TS% of 55.9, and though VanVleet’s scoring average is down to 18.7 points per game this year, he is still creating at a high level averaging 6.3 assists per game. As a result, this team is the best it’s been offensively with this core, and should be even more dominant defensively with multiple All NBA Defensive candidates.
So let’s get back to the main questions: How is the Raptors defense underperforming to this magnitude and why is a team this talented on both ends of the floor losing so much? First off, it is important to note how remarkable this team is at forcing turnovers as their defense forces turnovers on 17.3% of opposing team’s possessions, ranked 1st in the NBA. So how is their defensive rating so low if they are 1st in forced turnovers? Well, as good as the Raptors have been at forcing turnovers and creating points off of those turnovers, opposing teams have an eFG% of 56.6 against them, the second-worst mark in the NBA.
Although part of the mark from opposing team’s being absurdly high is due to luck, the Raptors have issues rotating out to 3-point shooters indicative of opposing team’s shooting 37.2% from 3PT range, the 7th worst mark for a defense in the NBA. It is also important to note that the Raptors have been the unluckiest team in basketball this season with the 17th ranked Efficiency Differential of +.1, but the worst Win Differential of -2.7 in the NBA. Win Differential can be described as the number of wins expected from a team based on their Efficiency Differential and how many games the team has actually won.
Although it is crucial that Head Coach Nick Nurse implements a way for the Raptors to improve their 3PT defense, the team should win more games consistently based on their Efficiency Differential regardless of what adjustments are made. Raptors fans have been adamant about blowing the team up, but need remain patient as the fact of the matter is that this team still forces turnovers at the highest rate in the NBA, and has a young core that is vastly improving on the offensive end of the floor. Furthermore, the Raptors are the unluckiest team in the NBA this season and should put together an impressive second-half that will result in yet another playoff appearance behind three of the most underrated players in basketball: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr.
Note: Advanced Statistics used in this article are gathered from Cleaningtheglass.com, Statmuse.com, and NBA.com and are updated as of Thursday, January 19th, 2023