The Padres are making serious moves that make them heavy contenders for a World Series. How do these moves affect other teams in the fight for NL West, National League, and MLB supremacy
Trading for Snell and Darvish bolster the Padres rotation, so how are the Dodgers and other teams going to respond to the Padres going into win-now mode.
The Padres are making serious moves. They already traded for front-end starter Mike Clevinger last season, but after he opted to get Tommy John surgery and won’t play this upcoming season, the Padres have bolstered their rotation to help push them over the hump in the NL West.
The Padres finished the 2020 MLB season with a 37-23 record, the second-best record in the National League. They didn’t win the division though because the best record in the league went to the division-rival Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have won eight straight NL West division titles since 2012, and the Padres last season were the closest team to dethroning the Dodgers during that 8-year span. The crazy thing is that the Padres will be even better next season after trading for both Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, not to mention also signing highly coveted South Korean Infielder Ha-Seong Kim(which may be the most underrated signing of the offseason).
The Padres had to give up top prospects Luis Patino and Cole Wilcox for Snell, but not that much for Darvish, who had an amazing year last season but many concerns and inconsistencies for him remain. These moves put the Padres fully in a win-now mode following a five year rebuild period. Their lineup should be even better this upcoming season with Francisco Tatis Jr. slowly becoming one of if not the best player in the National League and Manny Machado continuing to play like his All-Star self. Trent Grisham, Wil Myers, and Tommy Pham will be good again this upcoming season not to mention the addition of Kim as I mentioned earlier. More importantly, their rotation will be one of the best in baseball lead by Snell, Darvish, Lamet, and Paddack. The Braves with Fried, Morton, Soroka, and Anderson are the only other team I can think of that could challenge the Padres now elite rotation.
What do the Padres’ deals mean for the NL West rival Dodgers? The Dodgers will be a World Series contender next season even if they do nothing and sit quietly this offseason. However, that’s not the Dodgers’ prerogative, and if you know the Dodgers they will try and one-up the Padres and every other teams’ offseason additions. The Dodgers will be all in on Trevor Bauer now as they should be and I seriously think that Bauer sings with the Dodgers.
Bauer has openly said he wants to play for a contender and now since the Padres are out of the mix on Bauer(pretty much) and the Angels and Mets don’t project to be contenders next season at least yet, the Dodgers seem like a likely destination for Bauer. Bauer will not sign with the New York Yankees because of his beef with Gerrit Cole that dates back to their rivalry in college. Either way, the Dodgers will definitely give a huge offer to Bauer and will almost certainly try to bolster their rotation and bullpen even more. I see the Dodgers being in on Liam Hendricks, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Brad Hand, and Corey Kluber. The Dodgers will also inquire about front end starters on the trade market. Either way, the Dodgers are already good but will get even better by the end of the offseason because that’s what the Dodgers do.
How does this affect the Braves and the NL Central? The Braves will be just fine and make the NLCS again. The Dodgers will play the Padres again in the NLDS and the Braves will await the winner of that series, considering they have the easy route with playing the NL Central division winner.
Let’s be real here. With Darvish out of Chicago, and with the consistent struggles of star players Javy Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant, the Cubs don’t look like a contender at all. Lester is also a free agent, and I don’t see them re-signing him. The Pirates will suck per usual and the Brewers will be okay but nothing special. The Reds could do something, but I highly doubt it unless they can re-sign Bauer or bring in a front-end starter via trade. I think the Cardinals will win the division based on them being the best organization in that division. Either way, whichever team comes out of the central will lose to whoever they play(most likely the Braves), so this Padres big splash offseason doesn’t mean much to any of these teams unless the Padres beat the Dodgers and play the Braves in the NLCS.
What about the power balance between the American League and the National League? Has that changed at all? Yes. The White Sox seem to be poised for a World Series contending year after trading for Lance Lynn and expecting Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez to take a stardom leap. They already have reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu and Lucas Giolito, Lynn, Dylan Cease, and others to provide a great rotation and a decent bullpen.
The Yankees will be good as always(assuming they re-sign D.J. LeMahieu which seems like a forgone conclusion). The Oakland Athletics will be good again and somehow win the division regardless of who suits up for them. The Twins, Blue Jays, and Rays should also be pretty good, but none seem to be World Series contenders. The Rays will be good but not as good as last year after trading Snell. The Astros may lose Brantley and Springer which would make their team obviously substantially worse. Even if they were to re-sign both Springer and Brantley(which is a longshot) they still won’t have enough pieces to compete for a World Series title.
With the Padres, Dodgers, and Braves all being better than any team in the American League, there is an obvious power balance in favor of the National League, especially after the Padres’ moves this offseason. We obviously have to see who Trevor Bauer signs with, but even if he ends up signing with an AL team, I don’t think it makes a big enough difference to shift the power balance. This upcoming MLB season will be dominated by the National League.
Will the Padres be able to win the NL West crown? I still don’t think they do. I believe that the Dodgers sign Bauer and bolster their pen with a Liam Hendricks or Brad Hand type guy, countering the Darvish and Snell moves that the Padres made. I have a feeling that no matter how good this Padres team looks to be, the Dodgers will find a way to win their 9th NL West crown in a row.
However, in the playoffs, it may be different. The Padres have a better rotation than the Dodgers now, which will be crucial in a 5-7 game playoff series. That is what matters. The Padres picked up two dominant pitchers with playoff experience, and are hoping that their young guys can get even better this season, using last year’s playoff experience to their advantage to possibly win a division series, a championship series, and maybe even a World Series. I think this roster as of now would beat the Dodgers in the playoffs next season. However, if the Dodgers get Bauer and bolster their pen it’s a completely different story. It is obviously too early to make a prediction, but what is certain is that the Dodgers and Padres will be two of the best teams in the MLB next season.
I will end on this. The Padres remind me a lot of the 2019 World Series Champion Washington Nationals with their elite rotation and star-studded lineup lead by a young superstar. In 2019 for the Nats, those rotation guys were Corbin, Strasburg, and Scherzer. For the 2021 Padres, it will be Snell, Darvish, and Lamet(but maybe Paddack as he still has front of the rotation stuff). In 2019 the Nationals had young superstar Juan Soto ascending to go along with Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner in their lineup. For the 2021 Padres, the young superstar ascending will be Fernando Tatis Jr. and he will be helped by Manny Machado and Tommy Pham/Wil Myers/Jake Cronenworth.
As we remember the star-studded Nationals had a rough start to the 2019 MLB season but turned on the jets toward the end of the season to squeeze into the playoffs. They upset the heavily favored Dodgers, the St. Louis Cardinals, and the Houston Astros resulting in the World Series crown. This Padres team projects to be oddly similar. They may start off slow and have to figure out their star power, team chemistry, and how to use it, but by the end of the season, they will be ready for a deep playoff run similar to the Nats in 2019. Mark my words. This Padres team is legit and no one should be surprised if they finish 2021 with a World Series title.