Should people be concerned about the Warriors?
Even without Klay Thompson, the Warriors should be much better than they are playing right now but it doesn't mean we should give up hope just yet.
If you read my NBA season predictions that were posted last week, I had the Warriors securing the #5 seed in the Western Conference this season even without Klay Thompson. Many people were critical of putting the Warriors in that position while also leaving the Trailblazers out of the playoffs. I’m going to own it and stand by my predictions regardless of how the season plays out.
People have been very concerned about the Warriors’ first three games as they got run out of the gym by Brooklyn and Milwaukee, while barely winning their third game against the Bulls on a game-winning shot by Damion Lee. Steph Curry didn’t shoot like Steph Curry in any of the first three games, regardless of the many points he has scored. Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre have both been awful on the offensive end especially. Most notably Wiggins and Oubre have been atrocious from behind the arc, even though they were supposed to step up and try to replace some of Klay Thompson’s elite 3PT shooting production. Oubre is 0-17 and Wiggins is 4-13 from 3PT this season. In total field goals this season Oubre is 7-40 and Wiggins is 16-49. Not to mention Steph Curry’s bad field goal percentage to start the year only being 24-63 from the floor.
They won a thriller against the Bulls but the Bulls haven’t been good in over four years so it shouldn’t have even been a thriller in the first place. In fact, they should have lost that game as the Bulls outplayed them in every single way. If it wasn’t for Damion Lee’s last-second three, the Warriors would be 0-3 with their last loss coming to a team that won’t even be close to making the playoffs this year.
Should the Warriors have been blown out by Milwaukee and Brooklyn? No. But at least those teams are playoff teams. Steph Curry is still a superstar and even though he scored 36 points in the win against the Bulls on Sunday night, he still shot 11-25 from the floor and got the majority of his points from the free-throw line.
Damion Lee has played well in minimal minutes and so has James Wiseman. So why have they not gotten even more minutes? Damion Lee should at least be getting more minutes than Oubre at the moment, who has had one of the worst starts to a season by any player in NBA history. I don’t care how good Oubre was and can be…he needs to receive fewer minutes. Plain and simple. He may get into a rhythm at some point and continuing on his minutes per game may force him out of his slump, but I just don’t see that happening any time soon. I’m not saying he should be benched, but I have also noticed a lack of effort on Oubre’s part on the defensive end, not just the inconsistencies on the offensive end.
For example, with 54 seconds to go in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game vs. the Bulls, Zach Lavine missed a jump shot, and Oubre and others had a chance for the rebound. Once Wendell Carter got the rebound, Oubre seemed to have given up on the play not closing out on an open Otto Porter Jr. in the corner who obviously made the wide-open 3 pointer. This could have been catastrophic considering the Warriors were at this point now down 126-121 instead of 123-121. They did pull the game out but still, Oubre is not playing with much effort and Steve Kerr needs to hold him accountable by decreasing his minutes. Damion Lee seems to be playing hard so Kerr should perhaps start him instead of Oubre on Tuesday night against the Pistons.
I have also noticed that in important situations of games, Kevon Looney and Eric Paschall are in the game instead of #2 overall pick James Wiseman. Can Kerr explain this? Wiseman has been virtually the only bright spot for Warriors so far this season, but Kerr decides to not play Wiseman at the end of the third quarter and almost all of the fourth quarter on Sunday against the Bulls. Luckily, the Warriors won, but it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Wiseman is much better off playing down the stretch instead of Looney and Paschall, especially with talented center Marquese Chriss out for the year with a broken leg.
There is no way even in Steve Kerr’s now 11 man rotation that James Wiseman should only play 23 minutes in a game as he did on Sunday night. If Kerr wants to improve this already struggling Warriors team, he is going to have to trust the rookie Wiseman to come up big on both ends of the floor, which he has already proven in his first three NBA games. Kerr is also going to have to trust Damion Lee to play big minutes until Kelly Oubre figures everything out. Wiggins can stay on the floor even with his shooting struggles because he plays good defense and is experienced enough on the offensive end to do more than just score.
I truly believe that this Warriors team can still be a playoff team in the West. Draymond Green has yet to come back and his playmaking ability will take some of the load off of Steph Curry. No matter how bad Curry is playing at the moment, he is still the best point guard in the league and at least still a top 7 player in the NBA. Draymond will have a bounce-back year, which will improve this team dramatically. James Wiseman is playing great and there is no reason to think he won’t continue to do so. Wiggins and Oubre are also bound to play better eventually.
However, this team lacks a solid bench. Looney, Paschall, and Lee are okay, but Poole, Wannamaker, Mulder, Mannion, and Bazemore aren’t good at all and they significantly lower this team’s ceiling. Juan Toscano-Anderson is playing well in his limited role. He is playing hard-nosed basketball and showing serious effort unlike other guys on this team. I think that Kerr should give Toscano-Anderon more minutes right now, but the Warriors need more than just Looney, Paschall, Lee, and Toscano-Anderson providing valuable minutes off of the bench. Even if this team figures out their shooting struggles, they have no bench depth which will prove to be a serious issue especially late in the game when guys get tired.
After watching this team play their first three games, I do not think they will be the #5 seed in the Western Conference like I previously said in my NBA season predictions before the season started. However, I do think that they can be a fringe playoff team and can compete for a #6-8 seed once Steph, Wiggins, Green, and Oubre get going. To make any jump into the top 5 of the Western Conference though, the Warriors need to improve their depth either by trading Oubre or Wiggins for solid role players or by trading future draft picks for solid role players. It will be interesting to see if that win against the Bulls gives the Warriors any confidence going into Tuesday’s game against the 0-2 Pistons. Green should come back and play on Tuesday, and everyone should be paying close attention to seeing how this team plays with him on the floor. Everyone seems very concerned about the Warriors right now, and that is definitely warranted by their lackluster play, but until this team is playing at full strength and to the best of their ability I wouldn't count them out yet.