NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 15
Here are how teams are stacking up in the final stretch of regular-season games
With only 4 weeks to go in the NFL season, we are starting to get a feel for which teams are best equipped to compete for the Super Bowl and which teams are so far into purgatory that they are simply waiting until next season.
Expected dominant teams Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3), Green Bay Packers (10-3), and Los Angeles Rams (9-4) have been as good as advertised, while typical juggernauts Buffalo Bills (7-6), Cleveland Browns (7-6), and Baltimore Ravens (8-5) have struggled to live up to expectations.
Some surprises this season have been the New England Patriots (9-4), Los Angeles Chargers (8-5), Cincinnati Bengals (7-6), and Arizona Cardinals (10-3).
Furthermore, now that we have an idea of how dominant teams have been throughout the course of the year, we can properly rank them. Using advanced team metrics like how many yards per game a team is giving up both rushing and passing, and how many yards per game a team is putting up offensively passing and rushing, has also helped better dictate which teams are as dominant or as weak as their record shows.
Detroit Lions, 1-11-1
Now the Lions do not have the worst advanced metrics in the league ranking 26th in offensive yards per game (not 32nd!) and ranking 28th in yards given up per game (not 32nd!), but they still have the worst record in the NFL and it is hard to rank them any higher than 32nd. They have had their slew of injuries this season including missing their top Cornerback Jeffrey Okudah all year, but even without him the Lions are only giving up 244 passing yards per game (which ranks 17th in the NFL), which is very promising for the future of this defense.
It only makes sense that when they get Okudah and others back next season, that their passing defense will only further improve. On offense, Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson have played amazing, while D’Andre Swift has become an elite Running Back as well. Yes, the Lions have a ton of issues, but for the first time in years, the Lions are actually moving in the right direction.
Houston Texans, 2-11
If we are looking at the advanced metrics, the Texans are the worst team in the NFL. The only reason why they rank higher than the Lions is that they have a slightly better record, which obviously matters tremendously. The Texans give up 147 rush yards per game (last in the NFL) and only put up an average of 264 total yards per game (also last in the NFL).
Davis Mills actually looks promising at Quarterback with a 310 passing yard 1 touchdown 0 interception game against the Seattle Seahawks last weekend. Remember though, the Seahawks have a bottom 3 defense in the NFL, but the results for Davis Mills are still promising.
Brandin Cooks has been the only stable offensive player all season, and it looks like the Texans will be able to select either Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux with one of the top 3 picks assuming they continue to lose. They play the Jaguars this weekend and both teams should want to lose to help secure a top 3 pick. Whoever wins may only get a top 5 pick, not a top 3 pick!
Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-11
Aside from the Urban Meyer scandals all season long, this Jaguars team should be much better than 2-11. Thankfully, Urban Meyer was fired since he was stunting Trevor Lawrence’s growth and not playing Star Running Back James Robinson. Meyer also never got second year standout Laviska Shenualt involved, which was not good for the development of this team.
Sure, the defense hasn’t been as bad as the offense thanks to Josh Allen, but this team should at least be a 4 win team with the talent they have on both sides of the football. This season the Jaguars are only putting up 300 yards per game on offense and rank 30th in offensive yards per game (with Lawrence, Robinson, Shenault, Marvin Jones, and others on offense).
The Jaguars actually rank in the top 20 of both defensive categories and anyone who knows football can tell you that for this team, the offense should not be the problem, and yet it is with all the weapons they have.
New York Jets, 3-10
The Jets were ranked 32nd in my last Power Rankings, but the advanced metrics show that their offense isn’t as bad as we think it is. They rank 20th in offensive yards per game thanks to Zach Wilson, Michael Carter, Elijah Moore, and others. The Jets rank 15th in passing yards per game (237) but rank 30th in rush yards per game (84) which is bringing their offense down. Anyone who says the Jets have a good defense needs to lose all credibility immediately.
Just because they have a defensive-minded coach in Robert Saleh does not mean that their defense is automatically good. Too many times I hear on social media that the “Jets have a pretty good defense actually” by legitimate employed media sources.
Can you believe that? Well, these employed media people don’t follow metrics and analytics apparently since the Jets rank 31st in yards given up per game (392.8). They really have the worst defense in the NFL. Even the Texans have a decent passing defense ranking 16th in the NFL to balance their horrid rushing defense.
The Jets rank 29th in both passing and running the defense and those combined put them second to last in overall yards given up per game in the NFL this season.
Interceptions and fumbles have been a reason this offense has never been able to get going even with decent passing numbers. Zach Wilson has 11 interceptions in only 10 games, while Mike White has 8 interceptions in only 4 games. The turnovers are killing this team and will continue to kill this team, even with an improving offense.
Chicago Bears, 4-9
The Bears were supposed to have a dominant defense at least to balance their anemic offense. Well, that hasn’t been the case, as the Bears are giving up 120 rush yards per game (ranks 24th in the NFL). Even though their passing defense has been as good as advertised, teams are exploiting the Bears by running the football resulting in a loss almost every single week for the Bears.
They have given up at least 33 points in each of their last 2 games and their defense doesn’t look to be getting any better from here on out. Obviously, the big flaw of this team has been the offense as they rank 31st in yards per game (302 total on average).
A lot of this has to do with Justin Fields being hurt until the last couple of weeks and having to rely on Andy Dalton, but Fields big-time performance against the Packers actually catapulted the Bears up 1 spot from last in the NFL in yards per game to 31st so hats off to Fields and Co.
Either way, Matt Nagy will be gone at the end of the year and the new coach will have to figure out a way to get Allen Robinson II, Darnell Mooney, David Montgomery, and Justin Fields all working together. They have enough pieces to be a decent football team, they just need a new engineer to get them going.
New York Giants, 4-9
The Giants have struggled in almost every game this season. Yes, Daniel Jones has been out recently and you can’t trust Mike Glennon to win you football games. We all know that. However, this team had the makings of a very good NFL team before the year started.
Saquon Barkley has been fine, but really hasn’t looked even half as good as he did his rookie season in the NFL, and the receivers picked up in the offseason Kenny Golladay (in free agency) and Kadarius Toney (through the draft), haven’t been implemented into the offense as expected.
Toney is a special receiver and he has proved that this season, but the Giants refuse to get him involved in the offense. The playcalling is arguably the worst offensive playcalling in the NFL (along with maybe the Browns, Ravens, and Jaguars), and it has shown in the advanced metrics as the Giants rank 25th in offensive yards per game (312).
The so-called “dominant” defense the Giants were supposed to have hasn’t been good at all either giving up 370 yards per game on average (26th in the NFL). This has been a very disappointing team and a lot needs to change in the offseason. I am still not sold on “Danny Dimes” and I think that Matt Corral could change this organization for the better if they decide to draft him and move on from Jones (which they should!).
Seattle Seahawks, 5-8
Some people may think it’s unfair to rank them this low considering they have won their last two games and Russell Wilson and Rashaad Penny look amazing, but if you look at the advanced metrics, this is probably too high in the rankings. The Seahawk rank last in NFL defensive yards per game giving up a whopping 395 yards on average.
They give up 280 passing yards per game (which is last in the NFL) and give up 116 rush yards per game which rank in the bottom 10 percent of the NFL as well. The offensive numbers are misleading because Russell Wilson missed a ton of games, and the team has looked much better since his return, but they rank 28th in overall yards per game with 302 yards on average.
This number will likely go up with Wilson continuing to play well, but the Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and that is why they can’t put together many wins, even with a Superstar Quarterback.
Carolina Panthers, 5-8
This has been a typical Panthers year, starting off the year 4-0 like every season, then proceeding to look awful the rest of the season. Cam Newton had a great first game but has been awful since, D.J. Moore hasn’t been as involved in the offense as he was in the first half of the season, and Christian McCaffrey’s season-ending injury has really hurt this team’s confidence and offensive scheme. McCaffrey makes this team run, and without him, this team has a 0 percent chance of making the playoffs and I mean 0 percent.
The Panthers have the defense everyone expected them to have (2nd overall in the NFL in yards given up per game with only 293 on average), but their offense has been so bad recently that it’s losing them almost every single game (27th overall in the NFL only putting up 310 yards per game on average). Sam Darnold wasn’t the answer, Cam Newton isn’t the answer, so who is? Do the Panthers pick a Quarterback in this year’s draft? They really need a good one since they don’t want to squander this elite defense much longer.
Atlanta Falcons, 6-7
The Falcons may be the worst 6-7 team of all time at this point in the season. They have had a cupcake schedule, but they finally get to play a decent team this weekend in the 49ers, who desperately need to win that game to maintain their position in the playoffs. Atlanta is one of those teams with a subpar offense and a subpar defense but somehow has won 6 games so far.
They rank 24th in team offense putting up 316 yards per game on average, and they rank 25th in team defense giving up 365 yards per game on average. This recipe doesn't lead to wins normally and I think that the Falcons’ luck is going to run out with their remaining schedule.
Cordarelle Patterson has been fantastic this season as the WRB1 having almost 500 yards receiving and rushing, but not even his stellar season can save this offense with an aging and awful Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley out for the year for personal reasons, Kyle Pitts not getting involved much, and Mike Davis regressing as well. I would be surprised if the Falcons finish with 8 wins as their final four games include the 49ers, Bills, and Saints.
Las Vegas Raiders
When Derrick Carr throws for over 300 yards the Raiders and 6-0 and when he throws for less than 300 yards the Raiders are 0-7. What a statistic right? Well, the Raiders haven’t gotten Darren Waller involved enough in the offense as he is catching the least amount of receptions he has had in two years, while Hunter Renfrow can’t carry the offensive load by himself. It doesn't help that Josh Jacobs fumbles the ball on occasion and can’t run as he used to either. This organization is in shambles, and the advanced metrics really don’t matter here.
They just got pummeled by the Chiefs after disrespecting them and meeting on the logo to get hyped before the game. After the Henry Ruggs incident the team has only won 1 game, and after Jon Gruden was fired the team has only won 2 games. This organization has no identity.
Is Derrick Carr the problem? I don’t think so as he is one of the most efficient Quarterbacks in the NFL this season with a 55 QBR, almost 4,000 passing yards, and 18 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Is the defense the problem? Not really as they rank 20th overall in yards per game given up (356 per game on average). The offense can’t be the problem, right? Nope, as they rank 10th in overall offense this season (373 yards per game) and 2nd in pass yards per game (290 yards per game on average).
Like I mentioned earlier in this passage, advanced metrics can’t explain everything and the Raiders are the enigma. They are in shambles due to a bunch of unfortunate incidents happening this year to the team, and the team itself really isn’t that bad. The question remains, how do they translate this great team to winning football games next season because it seems like this season is already over for them.
New Orleans Saints, 6-7
The New Orleans Saints always play well against the Buccaneers, but this weekend will go drastically differently. The Buccaneers will stomp on them and will leave the Saints well out of the playoff picture. Alvin Kamara has been great when healthy, and the defense has been one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The Saints rank 10th in overall yards given up per game with 339 on average, but it’s their run defense that has been the recipe for winning games. The run defense ranks 5th in the NFL only giving up 95 rush yards per game. The Saints also are 4th in team interceptions with 14 total on the year.
This has helped them win some close games. Nonetheless, the Saints still lost Jamies Winston for the year and Taysom Hill is possibly the worst passing starting QB in the NFL this season. The Saints defense isn’t as dominant as it’s been in past seasons (even though it is still very good) and this team will miss the playoffs because of it.
Philadelphia Eagles, 6-7
The Eagles have the easiest schedule of the remaining teams in the NFC playoff hunt, but knowing the Eagles this season, a team filled with inconsistencies, I’m not confident that they can capitalize on this opportunity. Jalen Hurts has been one of the best dual-threat QB’s in the NFL this season, but the passing attack has lost its touch.
The Eagles aren’t getting DeVonta Smith involved enough or Miles Sanders, which is concerning. They can’t rely on winning games by solely running the football with their QB.
They need to be able to pass the ball more. The Eagles rank 15th in overall offense (putting up 356 yards per game), which is really good, but that is all reliant on the running attack from Jalen Hurts (1st in the NFL in rush yards per game with 160 on average). They rank 30th in passing yards per game with only 196 yards per game on average.
Their defense is pretty dominant ranking 10th in the NFL this season only giving up 336 total yards per game, but it’s not good enough to win them games if the running attack isn’t working.
This team is not balanced at all, and if Hurts, Sanders, and Jordan Howard cannot get the run game going every single game, they will falter. Head coach Nick Sirianni has to get his talented playmakers open in the passing game, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert more often, otherwise this team will blow it in big games.
Washington Football Team, 6-7
The Washington Football Team has had an up and down season, sometimes looking like one of the worst teams in the league, and sometimes looking like one of the best teams in the NFL.
The defense hasn’t been the same this year, especially since Chase Young went down with a season-ending ACL injury. They rank 19th in overall defense, giving up 352.7 yards per game on average, and their offense has been even worse, only putting up 336.2 yards per game which ranks 20th in the NFL.
They really need to get Antonio Gibson more involved who looked like one of the best Running Backs in the NFL last season and in the last 3 games before last weekend where he only had 30 yards rushing on 10 attempts.
If they can get Gibson more involved in the offense along with Terry McLaurin, then this team may have a shot to get into the playoffs. If they continue to rely on their 20th ranked defense and an inexperienced Taylor Heinicke, then this team probably won’t make the playoffs.
They are truly a mediocre team and their final 4 games include the Eagles twice, and the Giants and Cowboys once respectively. They have a serious opportunity to win 3 out of those 4 games, and they also are a team that could lose all four of those games. No one knows the outlook of this team, but their final 4 games aren’t too hard to win other than the Cowboys game.
Pittsburgh Steelers, 6-6
The Steelers are another team that was supposed to have a dominant defense but have severely underperformed as they rank 27th in total defense giving up 371 yards per game on average.
I get that T.J. Watt and other star players on defense missed a ton of time this year, but that is just unacceptable for a team that relies on its defense to win games. Ben Roethlisberger simply isn’t the same player anymore, Chase Claypool has become a villain in the clubhouse after calling out his teammates, and not even Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris can save this team from its fate of missing the postseason.
Their 19th overall ranked offense (putting up 329 yards per game on average) cannot win them games, especially close ones. It has to be the defense like I said before. With T.J. Watt hitting his stride, maybe this team can squeeze into playoff consideration, and I am not foolish enough to count out a Mike Tomlin-coached team this early in the season, but let’s just say it’s not looking bright for this Steelers team.
Miami Dolphins, 6-7
The Dolphins are on a serious 5 game win streak right now, but the path to the playoffs is tough. They will get a free win this weekend against the Jets, but after that, they play a tough Saints defense then the Titans and Patriots to finish off the year. Although the schedule is not ideal, the Dolphins have put together a positive season after starting off the year looking like one of the biggest disappointments.
The Dolphins' advanced metrics are a little bit misleading since they were one of the worst teams in the league in the first half, and have picked it up on offense and defense in the second half of the season. Nonetheless, the Dolphins rank 29th in total offensive yards per game (309 per game) and rank close to last defensively in pass yards given up per game (254 ranked 27th) as well.
Like I mentioned previously, before the win streak, this team was last in virtually every category on offense and defense, so they are definitely making improvements. In fact, their run defense has been terrific as they are only giving up 103 yards per game (8th in the NFL) this season.
Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle have a special connection, Myles Gaskin is starting to flourish in this new sparked offense, and the defense is playing dominant. All of these positives need to continue after they play the Jets this weekend because when they are 7-7, that is when the pressure is on and they are in the thick of the AFC playoff picture.
Minnesota Vikings, 6-7
The Vikings have been in every single game this season, and they have won a lot of big games and have lost a lot of bad games (the Lions being the worst). However, they have one of the best offenses in the NFL (391 offensive yards per game ranking 3rd) and that could get them into the playoffs.
They lost a battle for the 6 seed three weeks ago to the San Francisco 49ers, which hurt the teams confidence tremendously since they proceeded to lose to the Lions the week after. At least last Thursday night they beat the Steelers (who have been playing pretty well recently).
Kirk Cousins is having his best season in the NFL, Adam Theilen is great when healthy, Justin Jefferson has been his usual All-Pro top 5 Wide Recieiver self, and Dalvin Cook is coming off of a legendary performance, but the defense has been terrible (29th in overall yards per game with 381 yards given up on average) leading to big time losses.
If they can keep riding their high powered offense while playing good enough defense to keep them in the game over the last four games of the season, they will be in the playoffs. However, that is a pipe dream considering nothing has gone the Vikings way in close games this season and their last four games are against the Rams and Packers once each, and the Bears twice, not an ideal 2 out of 4 games for the Vikes.
Denver Broncos, 7-6
Led by a dominant defense even without Von Miller (7th in the NFL in total yards per game given up with 324), the Broncos have mostly flourished against awful NFL teams and have folded against good ones (besides the impressive win against the Cowboys).
Teddy Bridgewater is definitley an upgrade over Drew Lock, the tandem of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are finally healthy and playing well, and Javonte Williams is dominating in the backfield and peaking at the right time in the season. Although the offensive rankings are concerning for a team with playoff aspirations (19th in overall offensive yards per game with an average of 345), the Broncos have rode a dominant defense to key victories this season.
The final 4 games are tough as the Broncos play the Bengals, Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers (all tough opponents besides maybe the Raiders), but at least they are in charge of their destiny in the AFC.
If they can beat the Bengals, Raiders, and one of the games against the Chiefs and Chargers, then they will be in the NFL postseason. That is promising for Broncos fans who have gotten used to losing over the past couple of seasons.
Cincinnati Bengals, 7-6
The Bengals came back from a 20-6 deficit against the 49ers last weekend but lost in overtime in what was definitely a heartbrreaking loss for a team that would have liked a win to put them in first plcee in the division. Instead the Bengals sit outside the playoff rankings and will need to pick up some big wins against tough teams over their last four games (Denver, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Cleveland) having arguably the hardest final four game schedule of any team in the league.
They have surprised many people this season by even getting 7 wins, and Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow, and Ja’Marr Chase have played like All-Pros all season long. Defensively, the Bengals are average, ranking 16th in overall yards per game given up (349 on average), but offensively they rank 13th putting up 359 yards per game. They are a very balanced team all around, but they don’t do anything elite to consider them a safe bet to make the playoffs.
In fact, they could lose their last four games and finish 7-10 with their schedule coming up. Realistically, they will probably win two of those games and finish the season 9-8 on the cusp of a playoff berth. Nontheless, no one expected them to even get close to the playoffs, so hats off to Joe Burrow and this Bengals team for making serious progress in Burrow’s first year back from a brutal injury.
Cleveland Browns, 7-6
One of the biggest disappointments of this season has been the Browns and a lot of that does not have to do with their players, but instead their coaching. For a team that was good last year, their offense is stagnant and can’t do anything unless Nick Chubb runs wild. Baker Mayfield claims to be dealing with an injury, but I think it is time to move on from him and his lackluster Quarterback play this season.
When Odell Beckham Jr. was on the team, they didn’t get him involved. Now look what he is doing on a Rams team that has great playcalling. Sure, Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb have been great for the most part this season, but without their dominant defense they would have 0 wins.
Their defense ranks 4th in overall yards given up (321 per game on average), and Myles Garrett is the Defensive Player Of The Year as he is second in the league in sacks with 15 and 5th in tackles for loss with 15 as well on the season.
Offensively, the Browns need more consistent performances out of not only Nick Chubb and Baker Mayfield, but whoever is calling the plays. One week they can put up 40 points and the next only score 7 points. That is unacceptable with that type of talent on the team.
A 7-6 record for a team talking about being the best team in the AFC before the season started is truly embarrassing. With their last four games being against the Raiders, Packers, Steelers, and Bengals, there is a clear path to the playoffs as they could win all 4 of their games. It all depends on the Brown's’ offensive consistency.
Indianapolis Colts, 7-6
It has been a legendary season for MVP frontrunner Jonathan Taylor as he leads the NFL in rushing (1,348 yards) and touchdowns (16). He has helped take a lot of pressure off of Carson Wentz in his first season in Indianapolis. Wentz has flourished this season with a 58.6 QBR, 5th in the NFL this season. The offense in general ranks 11th with 368 yards per game, and 2nd (151 yards per game) in rushing yards as well.
The defense ranks 13th in the NFL giving up 341 yards per game on average, and only 230 passing yards per game (12th in NFL) as well. DeForest Buckner has been elite as a pass-rusher, and the Colts are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL with both a really good offense and a really good defense.
They started 3-5, which undoubtedly made the path to the postseason tougher for them, but they are now 7-6 with a clear opportunity to make the playoffs. Their last four games are against the Patriots, Cardinals, Raiders, and Jaguars. They will 100 percent win the final two games against Las Vegas and Jacksonville, but the first two games against the Pats and Cards will be tough.
Possibly the best team in the AFC and the NFC, the Colts know that Jonathan Taylor will play fantastic and will need to rely on Carson Wentz to make good decisions and trust his arm to win the next two games. Finishing with 11 wins is certainly possible for this Colts team, but they really need 3 out of 4 to make the playoffs. I am confident in this team sliding into the playoff picture and they are built to make a run once they get there.
San Francisco 49ers, 7-6
One of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL, the 49ers have flourished in the second half of the season and seem to have found their stride for the most part. Originally viewed as a lock to make the postseason before the NFL season started, the 49ers went off to a 3-5 start, before destroying the Rams and winning 4 out of their next 5 games.
Their pass defense has been elite all season long, ranking 6th in the NFL with 213 passing yards given up per game. Their run defense certainly hasn’t been good as they give up 113 rush yards per game (18th in the NFL), but their overall defense ranks 8th in the NFL because of their elite pass defense.
Their offense has also performed better than many expected as they rank 8th in rush yards per game, 124 on average, and 12th overall in offensive yards per game with 364 on average.
Deebo Samuel is the only player in the history of football to rush for 5 touchdowns, catch 5 touchdowns, and have over 1000 yards from scrimmage in a season. Talk about Offensive Player Of The Year? Look no further than Deebo Samuel. In fact, he is the most important player on this team and possibly in the NFL.
If he continues to dominate games the way he has over the last 5 games, the 49ers will be a very tough team to beat, especially with George Kittle returning to being the best Tight End in football over the past couple of games. Nontheless, the loss to the Seahawks two weeks ago hurt, but they were without Samuel and Jimmy Garroppolo threw 2 interceptions.
They came back and won a big game against the Bengals last weekend in overtime, and now will face the Falcons, Titans, Texans, and Rams over their last four games. They need to win 3 out of those 4 games to get into the playoffs, which will only happen if Jimmy Garropolo limits his interceptions and if the 49ers can get a healthy Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle out on the field to dominate both facets of the offense.
Los Angeles Chargers, 8-5
The Chargers have the second worst run defense in the NFL giving up a whopping 140 rush yards per game, which has obviously limited the win total for this team filled with Superstars.
Justin Herbert has been fantastic, Austin Ekeler has been healthy for most of the season, and Mike Williams’ breakout year has really transformed this team into one of the elite offenses in the NFL. They rank 6th in overall offense (385 yards per game on average) and 5th in pass yards per game (283). Their pass defense is also actually really good ranking 4th with only 207 pass yards per game given up on average.
However, like I mentioned earlier in this passage, they have the second worst run defense in the NFL which is limiting this team’s upside. If they can continue to establish their offensive firepower and get better at limiting the run, this team will be dangerous in the playoffs. They have the Chiefs tonight, which will be a tough game, but if they win tonight, they will almost lock in a playoff spot.
Baltimore Ravens, 8-5
Another juggernaut that has been inconsistent is the Baltimore Ravens, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL against the run, but also the worst passing defenses in the NFL as well, not to mention how many turnovers they have given up on offense this season.
The Ravens give up 266 passing yards per game (31st in the NFL) and only 85 rush yards per game (1st in the NFL). That is quite a disparity for a team hellbent on getting to the AFC championship game for the first time under Lamar Jackson. Speaking of Jackson, his 13 intercetpions are a career high and his 49.8 QBR would be the worst QBR he has had since his rookie season.
Even though the Ravens offense ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per game (388 total yards per game) due to their stellar run attack, it seems like they can’t rely on Jackson as much this year to win them big games as they have in the past.
I know that Jackson is dealing with an injury at the moment and that the Ravens will likley squeeze into the playoffs, but it isn’t looking bright once they get there. This team rides on Jackson and he will need to improve immensely for this team to have any shot at a title.
Buffalo Bills, 7-6
Anotjher disappointing team has been the Buffalo Bills, a team many thought would be the best team in the AFC this season after last years AFC Championship appearance. They haven’t played like an elite team in the second half of the season losing to the Jaguars, Chiefs, Colts, and Bucs over their past seven games. They have one of the most balanced teams in the NFL, ranking 8th in total yards per game putting up 383 on average and 1st in defense only giving up offensive 288 yards per game this season.
Josh Allen is having a great season, but hasn’t done enough in any big games to win besides the first game against the Chiefs earlier in the season. The loss to Tampa Bay in overtime was heartbreaking, and playing the Patriots again will be a tough game to win. However, they also get to play the Falcons, Jets, and Panthers over this final four game stretch, making it arguably the easiest final four games of any team in the NFL.
The Bills at worst will finish 10-7 and get a Wild Card berth. However, their destiny is in their hands and they could finish 11-6 and win out, but they will need Josh Allen to dismantle a Patriots defense that hasn’t been dismantled all year long.
Tennessee Titans, 9-4
I know that the Titans will likely win their division pretty handily, but I seriously doubt that they can win a playoff game without Derrick Henry. Ryan Tannehill has been good, not great, Julio Jones has underperformed, and so has A.J. Brown for most of the year.
The Titans are winning games this year due to their defense which ranks 10th in yards per game given up (341 on average) and 2nd against the run (only giving up 90 rush yards per game).
Their pass defense is nowhere near as good as their run defense, but Ryan Tannehill and Co. are good enough to win close games building off of their defense.
Their final four games include the Steelers, 49ers, Dolphins, and Texans, but they only need to win two of those games to win the division and get a top 3 seed in the AFC, which they will undoubtedly do. They are going to have to find something more on offense to win a playoff game though.
Dallas Cowboys, 9-4
The Cowboys have been way better defensivley this season than the previous two seasons combined thanks to All-Pro Rookie Micah Parsons and All-Pro Cornerback Trevon Diggs, who leads the league in interceptions. Still, they rank in the middle of the pack defensively as a whole (23rd in overall yards given up per game with 361 on average).
However, that is enough for their offense to go win them games as the Cowboys rank 2nd in total yards per game (409) and show no signs of slowing down throughout the rest of the season.
The Cowboys have played well all season long (Execpt for the Broncos blowout of them), and will win the division pretty easily as their last four games include the Giants, Washington Football Team, Cardinals, and Jaguars, three of which they will likely win easily. The Cowboys have a serious chance to be the 3 seed in the NFC if they continue to play consistently, especially on the offensive end.
Los Angeles Rams, 9-4
Coming off of a huge win against the division leading Cardinals (who beat them pretty good at home earlier in the season), the Rams confidence must be at an all-time high. Odell Beckham Jr. is hitting his stride and playing amazing, Matthew Stafford has looked elite most of the season, but especially during the last two weeks, and Aaron Donald and Von Miller are picking up sacks and tackles for losses like nobody’s business.
Will the Rams make the playoffs? Of course, but what seed will they get and what will they do when they get there? Offensivley, the team ranks 6th in overall yards per game with 385 on average, and defensively the team ranks 15th giving up 343 yards per game on average (which is better than the first 8 games of the season where their defense wasn’t even ranked in the top 20).
The Rams are improving, and if they continue to click on all cylinders and play well, this is a trap game for any top NFC seed going into the playoffs. The Rams have a team that is built to win now, and definitely could make the Super Bowl if they can keep up their offensive consistency.
Arizona Cardinals, 10-3
The Cardinals have managed to stay afloat somehow without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins most of the second half of this season. Hopkins will be out until the playoffs start at least, and Murray is coming off of an injury as well and threw 2 interceptions against the Rams last weekend.
The Cardinals rank 5th in overall defense only giving up 321 total yards per game, and offensivley they rank 9th, putting up 375 yards per game on average (which is misleading since they rank in the top 3 when Murray actually plays). Nonetheless, the Cardinals should still be able to win the division even with the Rams and 49ers starting to heat up.
Their final four games include the Lions, Colts, Cowboys, and Seahawks, and the only easy win will be against the Lions. Even the Seahawks are playing good football right now. James Conner has been great this season, and the Cardinals need to rely on Conner and Murray, alongside their defense to be able to make a run in the playoffs.
However, health is a big concern for this team and they could lose in the first round if they don’t get the NFC’s top seed at this rate. Who knows if Murray is legitimately 100 percent or if Hopkins will be back for a Wild Card game if need be.
Green Bay Packers, 10-3
Aaron Rodgers is playing like the best QB in football this season, and the tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the backfield is working to perfection over the past two weeks. The Bears gave the Packers a run for their money in the first half, but Rodgers as he self-proclaims “owns” the Bears and that was further on display in the second half of the game.
The Packers rank 13th in overall offense averaging 361 yards per game, and 9th in pass offense with 254 yards passing per game. These offensive statistics are misleading considering the Packers offense has played much better during the second half of the season.
Nonetheless, the Packers have a much better defense this season than they did last season, ranking 6th in overall yards given up per game with 323 on average. This has catapulted the Packers into Super Bowl contention and they may be tied with the Bucs at having the best shot at making the Super Bowl in the NFC because of that.
This Packers team is much more equipped at beating the Bucs than last seasons team, which quite frankly should have beaten that Bucs team. Furthermore, this team ranks as one of the best offensive and defensive teams, and has arguably the best QB in all of football right now behind center. I would be surprised if the Packers don’t finish as a top 2 seed in the NFC considering their final four games are against the Browns, Ravens, Lions, and Vikings, all of whom they will probably beat.
New England Patriots, 9-4
Sparked by a 7 game win streak, it may be disrespectful to not rank the Patriots #1 in the NFL right now. They can’t lose and they won’t lose at the moment due to their smart offensive playcalling and dominant defense.
They rank 3rd overall in defense on the season giving up (only 310 total yards per game on average), but during their 7 game win streak they rank 1st in defense (only giving up 250 yards per game over that stretch on average).
The offensive weight is carried by the Running Backs Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden, and Rhamondre Steveneson, as they rush for close to 124 yards per game (9th in the NFL).
Their overall offensive numbers are not the best, but they have the best coach in the NFL which bolsters their chances of getting to another Super Bowl, even with Rookie Mac Jones (who has been phenomenal this season). Their final four games aren’t ideal as they play the Colts, Bills, Dolphins, and Jaguars, and even though they will beat at least two of those teams, I am pretty confident they will win at least three to secure the #1 seed in the AFC.
Kansas City Chiefs, 9-4
Ahead of their big game tonight, The Chiefs are in the midst of a 6 game win streak where their defense has actually carried the weight. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce haven’t played well in three weeks and this team is still dominating because of their defense, and, well, of course Patrick Mahomes being their QB offensively as well. Like the Patriots and their defense, the Chiefs defensive metrics are misleading.
They rank 24th in overall yards given up per game (361 on average), but over their 6 game win streak, like the Patriots, they have only given up 310 yards on average which would rank in the top 5 of the NFL. If the Chiefs defense continues to play like this, and Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Patrick Mahomes get back on the same page, there may be no beating this team in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 10-3
Tom Brady is at it again and the Bucs are coming off of an exhilarating win against the hard-fought Bills in overtime. Brady leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns with 4,134 and 36 respectively, and the Bucs have benifeted off of Leonard Fournette’s elite run attack and now elite receiving game as well.
Not only do they have the #1 offense in the NFL putting up a whopping 410 offensive yards per game, they also have a top 10 defense (even though they are ranked 14th overall right now due to giving up a ton of yards over the last three games against Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Atlanta).
The Bucs just need to play good enough defense, like they did in the playoffs last year, to allow Tom Brady to go win you football games. That is exactly what they are doing and it will be tough to beat this team in a playoff game, and they could be on their way to the NFC’s #1 seed and another possible Super Bowl berth by the end of this season.
Great article B