NBA Play-In Tournament predictions based on advanced stats
With the matchups set for Tuesday-Friday's Play-In Tournament, what do the advanced stats say about who will come out of each conference?
Advanced statistics used in this article are gathered from NBA.com, StatMuse.com, and ESPN.com.
The NBA Play-In Tournament starts tomorrow, which means it is time for some predictions. Before I go into the Play-In Tournament, we already know that the 3 seed Bucks will play the 6 seed Bulls and that the 4 seed 76ers will play the 5 seed Raptors, one of which should be a good series considering the Bulls have only won 6 out of their last 22 games and are up against the defending champions. The 2 seed Celtics will await the winner of the 7 seed matchup and the 1 seed Heat will face whoever gets the 8 seed in the conference.
Now, if you read my article about the Clippers last weekend, you already suspect who I am picking to come out of the Western Conference Play-In Tournament with the 7th seed. However, I have been thinking a lot about karma and the Clippers giving up on Patrick Beverley for no good reason, and may switch my prediction because of that. You will just have to keep reading and see.
The seeding for the tournament in the Eastern Conference changed every single day this past week, but with Brooklyn’s win over the Indiana Pacers on Sunday afternoon, they are the 7th seed and will host the 8 seed Cleveland Cavaliers who have lost 17 out of their last 26 games since being in the top 4 of the Eastern Conference standings on February 11th.
The injury of Jarrett Allen in early February destroyed the rhythm and momentum of this team despite Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Lauri Markkanen, and Kevin Love all playing well during this rough patch. Evan Mobley also missed a substantial amount of time over the past two months which also didn’t help get this team back on track.
The Cavaliers were once 3rd in defensive rating when they had the lineup of Garland, LeVert, Markkanen, Mobley, and Allen on the floor, but have fallen to 6th over the past few months. This is the reason why Jarrett Allen was a no doubt All-Star, and why I was very surprised to see that he was not selected to the initial roster, but instead as a replacement for the game back in February. What he does on both ends of the floor, but especially defensively, is special and sparks this team to dominate defensively.
The Cavaliers finally got luck on their side on Sunday afternoon with the Bucks sitting their starters, ensuring a Cleveland Victory and the 8 seed instead of the 10 seed if they had lost. The other game in the Eastern Conference features a very good 9 seed Atlanta Hawks vs. a young and deep 10 seed Charlotte Hornets.
Moving onto the Western Conference, the Timberwolves will host the Clippers on Tuesday night for the 7th seed and the Pelicans will host the Spurs in a single-elimination game to see who moves on to take on the loser of the Wolves and Clips.
Once this Play-In Tournament is played out, I will then come out with full NBA Playoff predictions on Friday morning. I couldn’t add my playoff predictions to this article because for the first time ever, depending on who wins the Play-In Tournament, a 7 or 8 seed has a serious chance to knock off a 1 or 2 seed in either conference. Since this is a one-game playoff, anything can happen! Furthermore, here are my predictions for the Play-In Tournament.
Eastern Conference:
8. Cleveland Cavaliers at 7. Brooklyn Nets, Tuesday, April 12th, 4:00 PM Pacific, TNT
This shouldn’t even be a game. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will dominate from the get-go as no one on the Cavaliers will be able to guard them. Factor in Andre Drummond dominating the interior against the team who gave up on him and Seth Curry and Bruce Brown playing well down the stretch, the Nets will win this one easily.
As I mentioned in the introduction, the Cavaliers are the weakest team in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament and will stand no chance to knock off two all-time greats in a one-game playoff.
The Cavs still have the 6th rated defensive rating in the NBA at 108.9, but their offense is horrendous with the 20th ranked offensive rating of 110.8, the 15th ranked team eFG% of 53.6, the 15th ranked team TS% of 57, and an abysmal TOV% of 14.9 which ranks 27th in the NBA. Cleveland’s only advantage in this game is their 6th ranked defensive rating.
The Nets’ advanced stats don’t jump off the board with their 10th ranked offensive rating of 113 being their only asset. They have an abysmal defensive rating of 112.2 (20th in NBA) and like the Cavs, they turn the ball over at an alarming rate as well. This is likely due to Durant and Kyrie Irving being the focus for opposing defenses and it could become an issue in a 7-game series, not in this one.
Brooklyn and Durant thrive under pressure as we have seen over the past two weeks in a battle for seeding in the Eastern Conference. Although the Nets’ depth could give them trouble in a 7 game series, they could beat anyone in a one-game series including Cleveland and they will win a nailbiter.
Result: Nets secure 7 seed to face 2 seed Boston Celtics
10. Charlotte Hornets at 9. Atlanta Hawks, Wednesday, April 13th, 4:00 PM Pacific, ESPN
If you listened to the latest episode of “The Baller Sports Dialogue Podcast” I mentioned that the Hawks could be and arguably should be favored against anyone with their 2nd ranked offensive rating of 115.1 and the lowest TOV% (Turnover Percentage) of 12 in the NBA. Even though it sounds primitive, if a team takes care of the basketball well enough, they are more likely to win, which still remains true today.
Charlotte has an elite offensive rating of 113.5 (which ranks 8th in the NBA), but not as good as Atlanta’s. They also have the 23rd ranked defensive rating of 113.2 which is almost as bad as the Hawks’ defensive rating of 113.7 (26th in NBA).
The Hornets actually don’t turn the ball over as much as one would think with LaMelo Ball being their point guard as they rank 7th in TOV% at 13 and they shoot lights out with a team eFG% of 54.3 (7th in NBA) and a team TS% of 57.1 (13th in NBA).
The only problem is that the Hawks have Charlotte beat in every offensive category besides eFG% (where they are only .1 percent behind them). Since they went to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, they have tons of experience and the Hornets, despite their strong young core and underrated depth on the bench, will not be able to hang with the Hawks even without John Collins.
Result: Hawks beat Hornets and stay alive
9. Atlanta Hawks at 8. Cleveland Cavaliers, Friday April 15th, Time TBD
I have no doubt that this could be a close game filled with electric plays from star point guards Darius Garland and Trae Young. However, Cleveland is still too inexperienced, Jarrett Allen isn’t coming back, and their 6th ranked defense cannot outweigh the Hawks’ high-powered offense. Cleveland turns the ball over a lot and Atlanta does not which will likely result in a big difference in this game.
Trae Young is one of the most clutch players in the NBA as we witnessed in last year’s playoffs and he won’t let them lose this game to this young and talented Cavaliers team. The Hawks will win this one because of their experience and depth. In fact, the Hawks could beat Miami in a 7 game series. Don’t be surprised if they do, even without John Collins.
Result: Atlanta Hawks secure 8th seed to face 1 seed Miami Heat
Western Conference:
8. Los Angeles Clippers at 7. Minnesota Timberwolves, Tuesday, April 12th, 6:30 PM Pacific, TNT
As I mentioned in the introduction, it will be interesting to see the matchup between Patrick Beverley against the team that gave him away for nothing. People who think that the Clippers are going to win this one easily haven’t watched the Timberwolves play all season long.
They've been pretty dominant, especially against teams with worse records than them. They have also stayed in the game and won some close games against the top-tier teams in the NBA this season.
The Wolves have benefited from Karl Anthony Towns’ excellent year where he averaged 24.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.1 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game with an eFG% of 59.1, a TS% of 64, and a 3PT% of 41 on 5 attempts per contest. Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell have also been consistent scorers all season long, while Jared Vanderbilt and Patrick Beverley have wreaked havoc on opposing offenses with their lockdown defense.
The Wolves also rank 6th in offensive rating at 113.7 and 9th overall in Net Rating at 2.8. They aren’t amazing defensivley with the 14th ranked defensive rating in the NBA at 110.9, and they turn the ball over at an rampant 14.1% rate which ranks 18th in TOV%.
The Clippers on the other hand are playing their best basketball of the year and Paul George is coming off of a 23 point, 12 rebound, and 8 assist performance against the Kings on Saturday night. Norman Powell hasn’t missed in the 2 games he’s been back having 20 points on 65 percent shooting from 3 in both of those games. The Clippers have a top 10 defense and now look to have an improving offense with Powell and George back shooting efficiently as well.
They will fare better in a 7 game series against the Suns than they would the Grizzlies as crazy as that sounds. Even though they lost last year to the Suns in the Western Conference Finals, the Clippers are still a mismatch against the #1 seed in the West because of their hard-nosed defense and depth.
This is a tough game to pick, but I am going to give the Timberwolves the slight edge primarily because of the Clippers’ karma for trading Beverley for no good reason and the Wolves being at home where the fans will be extremely loud.
Timberwolves beat Clippers to secure 7 seed and face the 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies
10. San Antonio Spurs at 9. New Orleans Pelicans, Wednesday, April 13th 6:30 PM pacific, ESPN
The Pelicans have been playing great since acquiring C.J. McCollum prior to the NBA’s trade deadline. When Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are on the court the Pelicans could beat most teams in a one-game playoff despite their average advanced statistics.
They are 18th in offensive rating at 111.2 and 19th in defensive rating at 111.7. They don’t shoot the ball particularly well either (24th in eFG% at 51.8, 22nd in the NBA in TS% at 55.7) and they turn the ball over at an exponential rate of 14.3% (22nd in the NBA).
The Spurs have much better-advanced stats primarily because of their 2nd ranked TOV% of 12.6. They are 16th in offensive rating at 111.8, 17th in defensive rating at 111.5, 21st in team eFG% at 52.7, and 23rd in TS% at 55.6.
These stats are for the full season though and New Orleans was arguably one of the five worst teams in the NBA prior to the new year. The Pelicans have won 9 out of their last 15 games and it is remarkable that they even made the Play-In (they can thank the Lakers for that one). The Pelicans started off the year 2-16 and are now competing for a playoff spot.
That just shows how well they have played throughout the final stretch of the season. They have a 9-2 record when Ingram and McCollum are on the court together since the end of February and although the Spurs are well-coached and have a lot of depth, they won’t be able to match the two-man game between Ingram and McCollum in this one.
Pelicans survive elimination to face Clippers for 8 seed
9. New Orleans Pelicans at 8. Los Angeles Clippers, Friday, April 15th, Time TBD
I have a feeling that both the Clippers and Timberwolves want to avoid this game considering how well the Pelicans have played down the stretch. They are clicking on all cylinders and lucky for other NBA teams, it doesn’t look like Zion Williamson will be returning this season unless the Pelicans squeeze into the playoffs.
The Clippers could very well win that first Play-In game in Minnesota but if they don’t, they will flourish in front of their fans. They match up very well against the Pelicans as both Isaiah Hartenstein and Ivica Zubac can guard Jonas Valancuinas and all of the perimeter players on the Clippers (Terance Mann, Marcus Morris Sr., Nicolas Batum, Norman Powell, and Paul George) are lockdown defenders that will shutdown McCollum, Ingram, Jones, and Graham.
Powell and George will handle the offensive duties and score a ton of points despite Herb Jones and Brandon Ingram guarding them. It may not be a pretty game, but the Clippers will find a way to lean on their defense and timely scoring and win a close one. The Clippers will get the redemption matchup that they have yearned for against the Suns.
Clippers advance to face 1 seed Phoenix Suns in the first round, a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals
Amazing stuff