NBA Mock Draft: Full Two Rounds
We're just one week away from the NBA Draft, but where are these prospects going to end up? Let's get into it
Advanced statistics used in this article are gathered from ESPN.com and NBA.com
This draft class has grown on me a lot since the combine last month. I really don’t think that this is a top-heavy draft anymore. I am enamored with the sleepers in this draft which include Nikola Jovic, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Jake LaRavia, Max Christie, Jaden Hardy, and Kendall Brown. This draft will also feature some of the best second-round talents in recent memory as the depth of this draft is very impressive.
There also could be multiple superstars from this draft class. Chet Holmgren, Jaden Ivey, and Shaedon Sharpe have the most upside of any prospects in this draft and could become NBA stars sooner rather than later. There is a multitude of good 3 and D wings in this class that includes A.J. Griffin, Jalen Williams, Keegan Murray, and Dalen Terry to name a few.
Shaedon Sharpe is arguably the biggest boom-bust prospect in the history of the NBA despite his physical tools since he sat out last season at Kentucky. I was low on Sharpe earlier this year, but the more tape I watched from him, I would take the gamble and draft him in the top 5. Not over Jaden Ivey, but definitely over Keegan Murray, Bennedict Mathurin, and anyone else in that 4-8 range. Sharpe has the explosiveness and offensive prowess to become a 20-25 point per game scorer, and the only question is where he will end up and if that organization can help him reach his potential. He was the #1 player in the country out of high school for a reason.
The Orlando Magic are selecting first overall in this year’s draft and almost all signs point to them taking Jabari Smith Jr. out of Auburn. To me, this doesn’t make sense. When an organization is not close to competing and needs a franchise-altering player, why take a player that doesn’t have as much upside as other prospects at the top of this list? Chet Holmgren should be the clear selection for the Magic because of his upside, but for whatever reason, they won’t select him. In fact, if I was drafting #1 Jaden Ivey and Chet Holmgren would be the only two players that I would consider since they have the most upside in this draft.
I’m not as high on Paolo Banchero as others for one reason: What is he elite at? Scoring? No, even though he is a good scorer, he isn’t elite. Shooting? Absolutely not. Passing? He is okay for a big wing, but far from elite. Defense? He can’t guard anyone to save his life at the moment. I would stay far away from him, but since Houston doesn’t have a good defense anyway (last in the NBA), maybe he will end up being a good fit and prove me wrong, who knows. I wish nothing but the best for all these guys, even if I am harsh at times on their outlook.
I am also curious to see how far Nikola Jovic out of Serbia falls. I think he is by far the biggest sleeper in this draft and could become the draft’s best player as a perenial All-Star if developed correctly. It is all about finding the right organization for him to thrive in. He has all the tools and makings of the next great Serbian basketball player and I would be surprised if he falls outside of the top 15. In fact, I would consider him at #3 overall. That is how high I am on Jovic.
Jalen Williams is the other guy I am enamored with. He is a 6-6 wing who can get to his spots with ease, hit the 3-ball with consistency, and find open teammates when he needs to. Not to mention he is also one of the best defenders in this draft. One team in the 15-25 range will get extremely lucky by drafting Williams. Nonetheless, here are the selections that I am predicting two weeks before the big day.
1. Orlando Magic: Jabari Smith Jr., 6-10 PF Freshman, Auburn
Jabari Smith Jr. can make shots from anywhere on the court, has an extremely smooth jumper, and is one of the more versatile defenders in this draft. So why is this the wrong pick for the Magic? Well, even though the Magic are in dire need of a forward that can shoot, Holmgren’s upside outweighs all. Sure it would be riskier to select Holmgren, but how can an organization in the gutter expect to improve dramatically without taking risks?
Smith averaged 16.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1 block, and 1.1 steals per game with a 3PT% of 42 in his one year at Auburn. Smith will also be a good NBA player and should get a lot of touches immediately with high-end creators as teammates in Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs. I can see him winning Rookie of the Year, especially if he can be as consistent from 3PT range in the NBA as he was in college. I just don’t think Smith is a franchise-changing prospect like Ivey, Sharpe, and Holmgren are.
NBA Comp: Jaren Jackson Jr./lesser talented Chris Bosh
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren, 7-1 C Freshman, Gonzaga
Skinny, frail, and overly cocky is what you’ll hear about Holmgren from half of the league’s evaluators. The other half will describe him as a “unicorn”, an elite shot-blocker and 3PT shooter, and as versatile of a prospect as we have seen in years on both ends of the floor. I am with the half that praises Holmgren’s game and overall outlook. Sure his frame is an issue, especially against bigs like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, and Joel Embiid.
However, Oklahoma City is a picture-perfect fit for Holmgren, as he can take his time to develop his frame at the NBA level with a bunch of other young and talented pieces around him that are all willing to grow with him. There is no denying that Holmgren is one of the more talented prospects the league has seen in years because of his “unicorn” qualities mentioned above, all at 7-1.
Holmgren averaged 14.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks per game with a 3PT% of 39. He is the prototypical modern NBA big as he can hit 3’s, dribble, create for himself, and has positional versatility. I would take Holmgren #1 if I were the Magic, but Oklahoma City gets lucky as Holmgren falls to them.
NBA Comp: Kristaps Porzingis
3. Houston Rockets: Paolo Banchero, 6-10 SF/PF Freshman, Duke
Known as the “safest” pick in the draft, Banchero has more questions about his game than people think. He is a forward/big that can’t shoot 3’s with consistency (yet at least) and cannot play a lick of defense. Yet somehow because he can just go get a bucket when you need him to he is a top 3 prospect? I mean what’s his upside? 15-20 points per game with no defense? I am sure he will be a fine NBA role player but if I am picking in the top 5, I want a franchise-changing prospect with extreme upside.
I think Banchero has the biggest draft bust potential of anyone and I certainly wouldn’t select him at 3rd overall. The Rockets don’t need another guard like Jaden Ivey because they already have Kelvin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, and Josh Christopher, but don’t count out Shaedon Sharpe with this selection. Sharpe is the prototypical athletic wing that the Rockets have selected in recent drafts and has the ability to be an NBA superstar. The Rockets’ front office has their work cut out for them and they should be taking a longer look at Banchero and how he will fit in long term before the draft next week.
NBA Comp: Taller Julius Randle
4. Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray, 6-8 PF Sophomore, Iowa
The Kings will consider Ivey but pass on him because they have Davion Mitchell and De’Aaron Fox. They will also look at Shaedon Sharpe here because of his upside. Although the Kings have had two good drafts in a row with Tyrese Haliburton (who they traded) and Davion Mitchell (who is a bulldog defensively and will only improve his offensive game), they will not take Shaedon Sharpe here even though I think that has to be the pick.
Keegan Murray is more NBA-ready and the Kings legitimately think that they can compete in the Western Conference. How funny is that? I appreciate the confidence and stubbornness that the Kings organization displays, but even with Sabonis, Fox, Mitchell, and now Keegan Murray, they still aren’t a top 9 team in the West. Maybe Murray helps them get into the Play-In Tournament, but I would look long-term here and select Sharpe who has loads of superstar-type upside. I also wouldn’t have traded my franchise centerpiece in Haliburton for Sabonis, who is great, but much older than Haliburton and is already developed as an NBA player.
I am not saying that Murray isn’t going to be good. In fact, I think he will be a very good NBA player. I just don’t see him or anyone for that matter in this draft helping the Kings get into the playoffs as soon as next season. Murray averaged 23.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game last season at Iowa and is the prototypical 3 and D NBA 4 who can also play the 3 when he wants to.
One of the only prospects in this draft that can guard positions 3-5, Murray has both offensive and defensive versatility and is a plug-and-play prospect that will be in the Rookie of the Year conversation. His offensive game is polished, he is one of the strongest and most mature prospects in this draft, and he is a very high IQ basketball player, qualities that all teams could use. Nonetheless, Murray will be good for the Kings but not a long-term franchise-altering player like Ivey or Sharpe would be.
NBA Comp: Khris Middleton
5. Detroit Pistons: Jaden Ivey, 6-4 PG/SG Sophomore, Purdue
I would consider selecting Ivey at #1 overall depending on what my organization needs. Yes, Ivey needs to improve defensively, but he also has a Ja Morant-type upside where he can take over a basketball game in a matter of seconds with his athleticism, body control, scoring, and playmaking abilities. Ivey is also a much better 3PT shooter in college than Morant was which is promising to many evaluators. Ivey averaged 17.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game with a 3PT% of 35.8 in his Sophomore season at Purdue. He is the definition of an offensive superstar and will likely become the best player from this draft.
The Pistons get lucky here and take the best player available, which is Ivey to pair with last year’s #1 pick Cade Cunningham. Sure, Chet Holmgren may fit in better with Cunningham and the Pistons, but an Ivey and Cunningham backcourt would wreak havoc on defenses for a decade and that will be too hard to pass up. Cut Killian Hayes immediately. I will be truly furious if they mess this selection up and take someone other than Ivey.
NBA Comp: Ja Morant
6. Indiana Pacers: Shaedon Sharpe, 6-6 SG/SF Freshman, Kentucky
Sharpe falls to the Pacers at 6th overall and the Pacers, along with the Pistons, win the NBA Draft. The Pacers are desperately trying to get younger and accelerate their rebuild around Tyrese Haliburton. They will likely move Malcolm Brogdon and Buddy Hield this offseason or at the very latest next year’s trade deadline, and with the 6th overall pick will look at the best long-term value prospect available. That is Sharpe, who has the ability to become a 20-25 point per game scorer with game-changing explosiveness and offensive stardom.
Sharpe has a rare mixture of athleticism, scoring ability, and explosiveness, not to mention a really good jump shot that will only improve at the NBA level. Yes, he didn’t play at Kentucky this year and is the mystery man of this draft, and yes Sharpe isn’t a great defender by any means yet (but the effort is there), but the upside is too much to pass on here for the Pacers. They get the man they want to pair with Haliburton long-term in Sharpe.
NBA Comp: Zach LaVine
*TRADE ALERT* Blazers trade 7th overall pick to the Detroit Pistons for Jerami Grant, Killian Hayes, and a future second-round pick.
7. Detroit Pistons: Johnny Davis, 6-6 SG/SF Sophomore, Wisconsin
The Pistons jump back into the top 10 to select Johnny Davis, another extremely athletic prospect with loads of upside. Davis is an elite on and off-ball defender, who too many times falls in love with the mid-range jumper. To optimize his potential at the next level, Davis will need to improve the 33.3 percent mark from 3 point range that he had at Wisconsin.
Nonetheless, Davis is extremely shifty and smart at getting to his spots and making shots, despite his shooting limitations. He’s oozing with star potential and even though recent reports suggest a drop in the draft for him, I think someone like the Pistons jumps up to go get him. Davis could legitimately become one of the 5 best players in this draft if he develops a 3PT jumper that is reliable.
NBA Comparison: Josh Hart
8. New Orleans (from Los Angeles Lakers): A.J. Griffin, 6-6 SF Freshman, Duke
Mathurin and Griffin are the only options for the Pelicans here. Thanks to the Lakers, the rare instance of a contending team such as the Pelicans having a top 10 pick comes to fruition and they will use it to address a need, which for them is a 3 and D player that can play big minutes right away.
Perhaps Mathurin is more NBA-ready as an all-around player, but A.J. Griffin is the prototypical 3 and D wing at 6-6 225 pounds and is an elite defender who knocked down over 48% of his 3’s at Duke. He won’t have to do much on this Pelicans team in the first couple of years except play defense and catch and shoot, both of which he is elite at. I expect the Pels to take Griffin here, though I wouldn’t be surprised if they go with the uber-athletic guard from Arizona in Mathurin.
NBA Comp: Cameron Johnson
9. San Antonio Spurs: Dyson Daniels, 6-7 PG/SG 19 years old, G League Ignite
The Spurs do a fantastic job developing players and Dyson Daniels is one of the most gifted prospects in this draft, even though he is still very raw of a prospect. He is an elite playmaker and passer with size (6-7), and he is already an elite on-ball defender with more toughness than half of the prospects in this draft combined.
Arguably the highest IQ player in this draft, Daniels is catapulting himself up draft boards because of his improved jumper that many scouts have seen recently. Yes, the Spurs have Dejounte Murray, but now without Derrick White, they need another young guard to develop and Daniels is that guy if he is available here.
NBA Comp: Marcus Smart/Lonzo Ball
10. Washington Wizards: Bennedict Mathurin, 6-6 SG Sophomore, Arizona
A gifted offensive player that can take over games, Mathurin should be able to transition into purely a 3 and D role with some occasional creation on offense in his rookie year for the Wizards. Still set on trying to contend with Beal (which will unfortunately never happen), they will select a player with enough upside to feel good about but also enough NBA readiness to help their lofty goals come true.
The only issue I have with Mathurin is effort. At times when his shot wasn’t falling at Arizona, he would become lackadaisical, lazy, and get in his head on defense solely focusing on shooting his way out of a slump. He has all of the athleticism and tools to become a good defender, but consistency and IQ is the big issue. Is he mature enough to stay level when things aren’t going his way? That is my only knock on the PAC-12 Player Of The Year.
NBA Comp: Gary Trent Jr.
11. New York Knicks: Jalen Duren, 6-11 C Freshman, Memphis
Duren is one of the best interior defenders in the draft and can take Mitchell Robinson’s role in New York right away and succeed. His offensive game isn’t yet polished, but the strength, athleticism, and hustle for his age are remarkable. He already looks like he is 27 in his prime (like Dwight Howard did coming into the league), but he is only 19 years old.
That is a good sign regarding his development, and although he may struggle to develop a jumper or an advanced offensive game, he will always be on an NBA roster because of his elite shot-blocking, interior scoring, and athleticism. I love the selection here for the Knicks who also save money here by not paying Mitchell Robinson.
NBA Comp: Dwight Howard/Deandre Ayton
12. Oklahoma City (from LA Clippers): Nikola Jovic, 6-11 SF 19 years old, Real Basket (Serbia)
A bit high for Jovic? No shot. Jovic is by far the biggest sleeper in this draft and it’s really not close. Jovic is perfect for the positionless NBA with his point-guard skills at 6-11 and the ability to get to the rim with ease. Sure, he lacks elite athleticism and “isn’t a consistent defender”, but those were the same draft notes that many scouts had for Nikola Jokic entering his draft year. Don’t get it twisted: Jovic is not even close to being the same prospect Jokic was. He isn’t as big or as gifted of a playmaker. However, Jovic should be able to develop into a good defender and a gifted enough offensive wing to carry a team once he reaches his potential.
He played for the same team as Jokic, Real Basket in Serbia, has all of the tools to become an NBA superstar, and he has the same name minus one letter as the reigning two-time MVP, yet everyone is sleeping on him? I would select Jovic higher than this as he is my 5th ranked NBA prospect, but hey people will call me crazy for that. You live with your evaluations and I am putting all of my money on Jovic’s stock and I expect my bet to hit. Not to mention that Oklahoma City is doing a fantastic job developing young players (even Pokusevski!).
NBA Comp: Franz Wagner
13. Charlotte Hornets: Mark Williams, 7-1 PF/C Freshman, Duke
Easily one of the best interior defenders in the draft and one of the biggest sleepers, Williams will enter the NBA averaging close to 2 blocks per game and isn’t a finished product yet on the offensive end of the floor. He is agile and athletic enough to create for himself on the offensive end at times and is an immediate lob threat with LaMelo Ball in Charlotte.
For a team that ranked 22nd in defensive rating, Williams alone probably makes them a top 20 defensive team even without the Hornets upgrading elsewhere (which they undoubtedly will). Williams has the ability to become a sneaky good offensive player once he develops his offensive game a little bit further.
NBA Comp: Hassan Whiteside
14. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jeremy Sochan, 6-9 SF/PF Freshman, Baylor
Known primarily as an elite defensive prospect, in fact, the best defensive prospect in the draft, Sochan will need to develop a jumper to avoid being labeled the “Issac Okoro” of this draft. Okoro is an elite defender that hasn’t yet developed a jumper and Sochan will enter the league as one of the best young on-ball defenders in the game with the same issue.
However, that can only take his career so far. His hustle and work ethic though lead many evaluators to believe that he will become a good jump shooter with time. As Cleveland is likely going to be a playoff team next season, Sochan’s job will be very simple: Play defense in limited minutes as a rookie and work on developing a jump shot.
NBA Comp: Issac Okoro
15. Charlotte Hornets (from New Orleans): Ousmane Dieng, 6-9 SF/PF 19 years old, France
Dieng is rising up all draft boards and this may be too low of a prediction for a guy that many go in the top 10 because of his size and versatility on both ends of the floor. Some scouts even compare Dieng to Paul George because of his body type and knack for scoring to go along with above-average defense, but I don’t see it. Dieng is more like a Nicolas Batum or a quicker Kyle Anderson and there isn’t anything wrong with that. Both of those guys are solid NBA players that have an impact on both ends of the floor.
Dieng can’t shoot like Batum but has similar size and can defend multiple positions. Dieng isn’t as slow as Anderson, but he can pass and create at an elite level. Dieng’s inefficient shooting numbers are kind of concerning, but so were LaMelo Ball’s numbers before coming to the NBA as well. I just think comparing a good point forward that can play defense to a top 15 NBA player who is leaps and bounds a much better defender is dangerous. Dieng should become a decent NBA player if he is developed right, but I don’t see him as a “sleeper” in this draft as everyone else does.
NBA Comp: Nicolas Batum/Kyle Anderson
16. Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Williams, 6-6 PG/SG Junior, Santa Clara
The Hawks desperately need to improve their 26th-ranked defense while painting their 8th-ranked team eFG% and 6th-ranked team TS% and Williams checks both of those boxes. Williams is one of my biggest sleepers in the draft because of his 3-point shooting, elite scoring ability, and the ability to defend multiple positions with ease. Williams can create at an elite level for his size and gets to his spots on the floor with no disruption.
Once he gets into a zone, there is no stopping this man on either end of the floor. Williams’ offensive game continues to dramatically improve every year and that leads me to believe that he should become one of the better 3 and D players in the NBA if developed by the correct organization. The only knock on Williams is that he went to Santa Clara, didn’t play anyone good, and is slower than other prospects. What scouts and evaluators fail to see is the multitude of ways that Williams can score and create for his teammates, something that will translate immediately to the NBA.
Williams may fall lower than this, but Atlanta knocks two birds out with one stone by improving their defense and maintaining their elite shooting and scoring output here.
NBA Comp: Spencer Dinwiddie
17. Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn): Malaki Branham, 6-6 G/SF Freshman, Ohio State
Branham really shouldn’t fall this far in the draft because of his toughness and ability to score in a variety of ways. Branham is a certified bucket getter and averaged close to 14 points and 4 rebounds per game with a 3PT% of 41.6 in his freshman season at Ohio State.
Branham has the body of an NBA player already and his toughness and shot-making ability should translate to the NBA very smoothly. The Rockets have a multitude of young guards that can score, but it certainly isn’t a problem to have too many of them… that is for sure. They add Branham here at an extremely good value.
NBA Comp: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander without the elite passing
18. Chicago Bulls: Jaylin Williams, 6-10 PF Sophomore, Arkansas
The Chicago Bulls desperately need to improve their 23rd-ranked defense if they want any shot at competing next season and Jaylin Williams is the next great Robert Williams/Mikal Bridges type of elite defender. He is that good on the defensive end and what makes Williams even more special is the tenacity, hustle, and effort he brings on every play. Williams is the epitome of a glue guy that can spark a team on both ends of the floor, primarily as a lob threat on offense.
If teams were smart, Williams would be long gone by this point in the draft, but because of his offensive limitations, there is a strong possibility that Williams will be available for the Bulls. Williams will get big minutes right away and will try to solidify an improved defense with a healthy Lonzo Ball and Patrick Williams next season. A home run pick for the Bulls here.
NBA Comp: Robert Williams III
19. Minnesota Timberwolves: Ochai Agbaji, 6-6- SG Senior, Kansas
Another guy that is unlikely to fall this far is the incomparable Ochai Agbaji, who could have played in the NBA two years ago if he wanted to. His offensive game just continues to mature and his defense has gotten astronomically better throughout the years at Kansas. Agbaji culminated his tenure at Kansas by helping the Jayhawks win a national championship and the shot-making ability that Agbaji brings is the most advanced of any prospect in this draft.
Will he ever average more than 15 points per game in the NBA? Who knows, I don’t like putting limitations on anyone, even the prospects I am not high on. What I do know though is he won’t need to average 15 a game if he comes off of the bench for a playoff team that will draft an NBA-ready player. There is arguably no one more NBA-ready than Agbaji in this draft and the Wolves add depth and great value at 19.
NBA Comp: Gary Harris
20. San Antonio Spurs (from Toronto): Blake Wesley, 6-4 SG Freshman, Notre Dame
Wesley had a very interesting freshman season at Notre Dame some games looking like a future NBA star and other games looking like an NBA bust. Wesley has all of the tools to become a very good NBA player (size, athleticism, explosiveness, and defense) but simply isn’t consistent enough yet to bet on in the lottery despite his evident upside.
Wesley was underrated going into his freshman year at Notre Dame not even seen as a draft prospect for this year but proved his worth with multiple 20+ point bursts where he singlehandedly took over games. However, for every 20-point burst, there was a 3-15 5-point dud that followed within a couple of games. Wesley is far from efficient and one of the rawest prospects in this draft. Nonetheless, Wesley is one of the bigger boom/bust picks in this draft and it will take a smart organization like the Spurs to develop him into an NBA Star. I think it is possible.
NBA Comp: Victor Oladipo
21. Denver Nuggets: Dalen Terry, 6-7 PG/SF Sophomore, Arizona
The Nuggets also traded for the 30th overall pick in this year’s draft, but there is no denying that they will want to improve their wing depth and defensive versatility as they ranked 15th in defensive rating despite being ranked #1 in eFG% and TS% and 6th in offensive rating.
Terry is a big body that can defend multiple positions and is more of a point guard/ball-handler on the offensive end. He can create at an elite level and get to the basket with a variety of moves. However, Terry needs to develop a better 3-point jumper to get serious minutes in his rookie year, but he should fit in perfectly in an organization that develops players very well like the Nuggets.
22. Memphis Grizzlies (from Utah): Kennedy Chandler, 6-0 PG Freshman, Tennessee
An extremely raw and athletic guard like Chandler needs a mentor that can teach him the ropes in the NBA. A mentor that has a similar never give up, I am always going to beat you type of mentality that Chandler has. Slot in Ja Morant to help Chandler improve his shot-making ability (since Morant entered the league a spotty shooter and developed into a more diverse offensive player). Chandler and Morant are both gamers and have elite athleticism and playmaking ability. Like Morant, Chandler’s game just needs to be refined and once he does that, he will become the next underrated star in the Grizzlies’ deep lineup. I am very high on Chandler’s upside.
NBA Comp: Kenny Anderson
23. Philadelphia 76ers: Tari Eason, 6-8 PF Sophomore, LSU
Primarily a defensive-first player, Eason brings versatility on both ends of the floor and will be known as the ultra-reliable guy in the NBA, especially defensively. His offensive game is developing and he is a very similar prospect to OG Anunoby (even though Anunoby is much more of a true wing than Eason is). Eason can guard 1-4 defensively, which is where his value is, but offensively is a 4 that can’t shoot yet.
Sure, he is reliable enough to catch a lob and make the extra pass, but he would really do some big-time damage if he developed a jump shot. The 76ers ranked in the 12-15 range in just about every advanced category, but improving the defense and finding ways to hide James Harden on that end of the floor is crucial to their success. Eason comes in and will play 20+ minutes immediately to impose defensive versatility.
NBA Comp: OG Anunoby
24. Milwaukee Bucks: Christian Braun, 6-7 SG/SF Junior, Kansas
Bruan had a heck of an NCAA tournament and is one of the better 3 and D players in this class because of his athleticism, size, and 3PT shooting. Sure he is more of 3 than D at this time, but his length and athleticism will project him as an above-average defender that will give more value on the offensive end of the floor.
He reminds me of a taller Pat Connaughton, who has had a ton of success on the Bucks the past couple of seasons. Slot in another wing that knocks down the 3 ball and is a proven winner and the championship-contending Bucks will have even more depth than last season.
NBA Comp: Pat Connaughton
25. San Antonio Spurs (from Boston): Dominick Barlow, 6-9 PF 18 years old, Overtime Elite
Barlow is opening a lot of eyes after an impressive season for Overtime Elite where he proved he can guard positions 2-4 and showed off a solid mid-range shot as well. His 3-point shot is improving tremendously and he is becoming a 3 and D NBA PF as we speak.
However, he is still 18 years old and extremley raw of a prospect. How perfect to go to an organization like the Spurs that can take their time developing him like they have been doing with Joshua Primo and others. Barlow will likely have to develop in the G-League first before playing in the NBA but there is a ton of upside here and the Spurs will capitalize on that.
NBA Comp: Jalen Smith
26. Houston Rockets (via Dallas from Christian Wood trade): Jaden Hardy, 6-4 SG 19 years old, G-League Ignite
Once viewed as a top 5 pick because of his elite scoring abilities, Hardy struggled tremendously in his lone season for G-League Ignite and questions remain about his jump shot and efficiency. Hardy shot just 27 percent from 3 and 35 percent from the floor for Ignite, but there is optimism about how his game will translate because of a much better second half of the season from Hardy.
Hardy will need time to develop into the star that many people believe he can become but the Rockets could throw Hardy right into the fire like Jalen Green and Josh Christopher, allowing Hardy to work through his shooting slumps and improve his efficiency as the year goes on (just like Green and Christopher did). I believe Hardy can become a top 5-10 player from this draft class, but he just needs a good fit who will embrace his style of play like the Rockets. They love high upside guards that are athletic and Hardy fits that mold.
NBA Comp: Anfernee Simons/Damian Lillard
27. Miami Heat: MarJon Beauchamp, 6-6 SF 20 years old, G-Legue Ignite
Beauchamp showed a lot of improvement on his 3-point shot for G-League Ignite last season and it has solidified him as a first-rounder. Beauchamp has a 7-0 wingspan and has shown defensive versatility and toughness. A lot of times when Jaden Hardy and Dyson Daniels were cold from the floor, Beauchamp took over and kept G-League Ignite in the game by himself.
He has the ability to become more than just a 3 and D wing in the NBA because of his work ethic and consistent improvements in his overall game every year. The only knock on Beauchamp is that he is 20 and turning 21 relatively soon, but that won’t stop certain teams from developing such a great talent. He fits “Heat Culture” and if Beauchamp is developed correctly I can see him becoming one of the best players from this draft class.
NBA Comp: James Anderson
28. Golden State Warriors: Ty Ty Washington, 6-3 Freshman, Kentucky
Washington falls to the perfect team to develop him. Washington is an elite playmaker who has a knack for getting to the rim and finding open teammates. He will be able to develop for a couple of years before even stepping on the court if need be and that will be crucial to his future in the league. Getting him some minutes in the G-league to develop as Jordan Poole did is crucial to Washington’s longevity in the league as he is still relatively small and won’t be able to hang with bigger guards immediately in the NBA.
He can develop a better jumper and improve his defense and decision-making in the G-League while also getting stronger and building out his frame. I am not particularly high on Washington as a prospect as what he accomplished at Kentucky leaves much to be desired (12.5 points, 3.9 assists, 1.3 steals per game last season). However, I can’t think of a better landing spot for Washington than this, and it’s almost certain he won’t be a bust if the Warriors select him.
NBA Comp: Jameer Nelson
29. Memphis Grizzlies: Kendall Brown, 6-8 SF Freshman, Baylor
Brown is an ultra-athletic defensive first wing that has the potential to become a 3 and wing with development. What a perfect scenario for Brown to not only learn under a wizard in Taylor Jenkins that teaches defensive versatility, but also that he won’t be rushed into playing in the NBA.
In fact, since the Grizzlies are so stacked and are arguably the deepest team in the NBA, Brown may spend 1-2 years primarily in the G-league because he is more of a “project” than most prospects in this draft. Nonetheless, I like what Brown brings to the table in size, defense, toughness, and athleticism and I wouldn’t be surprised if he develops into a good offensive player at some point in his career.
NBA Comp: Patrick Williams
30. Denver Nuggets (via Oklahoma City Thunder from Phoenix): Jake LaRavia, 6-8 SF Junior, Wake Forest
Dallas needs to improve its 3PT shooting further so why not take a proven, knockdown 3-point shooter that will fit perfectly alongside Nikola Jokic, who will be able to get LaRavia so many open looks.
He averaged close to 15 points on 38% shooting from 3-point range in his Junior season at Wake Forest, not to mention he also averaged 1 block and 1.7 steals per game showing defensive versatility. He will give the Nuggets a defensive boost. An underrated passer and one of the highest IQ basketball players in this draft, LaRavia should be in the NBA for a long time. He does all the little things right.
NBA Comp: Austin Reaves
2nd Round:
31. Indiana (from Houston via Cleveland): Max Christie, 6-6 SG Freshman, Michigan State
Arguably one of the smoothest players to come into the NBA in recent years, Christie has been rising up draft boards and might not even be here for the Pacers with this selection. With a mid-range game like C.J. McCollum and a finesse to his game that certainly can’t be taught, Christie could end up being one of the best players to come from this draft. The maturity he shows on the offensive end of the floor for his age is rare and the intensity he plays with on both ends of the floor is impressive.
Christie also has a 6-9 wingspan and projects to become an elite defender at the NBA level based on what I saw his freshman year at Michigan State. The Pacers need complementary pieces in the backcourt besides Tyrese Haliburton, especially if Malcolm Brogdon and Buddy Hield are moved and Christie would fit in nicely with Haliburton and Sharpe for the Pacers’ future.
32. Orlando Magic: Jean Montero, 6-2 PG, 18 years old, Overtime Elite
Montero’s draft position is one of the mysteries of this draft with some mocks having him as high as top 20 and others having him fall to the middle of the second round. I think that Montero is a first-round prospect that could turn into a well-above-average offensive player, but I have him falling right outside the first round at the top of the second round. Montero is one of the youngest players in this draft still being 18, and that will entice a lot of teams to take a chance on him sooner rather than later in this draft.
Montero isn’t the best defender yet, but his quickness and speed lead me to believe he will become a good defender eventually despite his 6-4 wingspan and 170-pound small frame. Montero wreaks havoc against defenses with the ball in his hands, especially in the open floor as he has a rare mixture of quickness and body control.
Montero can attack defenses at the rim and with his jumper that can extend well beyond the arc. His decision-making is advanced for his age, but it may take time for his game to translate to the NBA because of his small frame. Oklahoma City gets a guy they can develop in the G-League and take their time with him since Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have the backcourt locked down.
33. Toronto Raptors (from Detroit via San Antonio, Washington and Chicago): Christian Koloko, 7-1 C Junior, Arizona
One of the best shot-blockers in the country, Koloko brings elite interior defense directly to the NBA. Besides the elite defense, Koloko is a lob threat on offense and a tenacious offensive rebounder with a good motor.
Toronto has expressed the need to improve at the center position especially defensively, and Koloko would fit right in if the Raptors don’t explore a Rudy Gobert or Deandre Ayton trade.
34. Oklahoma City Thunder: Peyton Watson, 6-9 SF Freshman, UCLA
Watson had a year to forget at UCLA as a freshman really only showing off his defensive prowess in very limited minutes. Watson averaged 3.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 0.6 steals, and 0.6 blocks in just 12.3 minutes per game last season, but scouts still remember that 5-star recruit with all of the tools to thrive in the modern NBA. Similar to Ziaire Williams, but to a much lesser extent, Watson is a very raw prospect that has the ability to become an extremely athletic 3 and D wing with development.
I personally think he is leaving UCLA early and would develop more under Mick Cronin next year against kids his age rather than grown men in the G-League, but that’s just me. Nonetheless, we all have to live with our decisions, and Watson’s career may go in a completely different trajectory because he left UCLA too early. Or he could become Zach LaVine who was also criticized for leaving UCLA too early. Time will tell, but Oklahoma City has the time and resources to develop him.
35. Orlando Magic (from Indiana via Milwaukee): Trevor Keels, 6-5 PG/SG Freshman, Duke
Another raw prospect that the Magic will draft, Keels showed good on-ball defense and above-average defense in his Freshman year at Duke. Keels averaged 11.1 points and 1.2 steals per game, but shot just 31.2% from 3-point range and struggled to be consistent on the offensive end.
Many evaluators including myself believe that Keels is one of the weakest members of this draft class and would be much better off returning to Duke and receiving tons of NIL money as one of the Blue Devils’ top players. Well, he can’t turn back now as he kept his name in the draft and hired an agent. Nonetheless, Keels is a long-term project that the Magic can take a gamble on because they have so many draft picks in this year’s draft. Keels will likely spend 2-3 years in the G-League before even touching an NBA floor.
36. Portland Trailblazers: E.J. Liddell, 6-7 PF Junior, Ohio State
The Trailblazers say they are in win-now mode despite an underwhelming roster. After trading the 7th overall pick in this year’s draft for Jerami Grant and Killian Hayes, the Blazers take an experienced workhorse in Liddell who reminds me a lot of Montrezl Harrell: An undersized big that can score at will in the interior.
However, Liddell is a better defender than Harrell was at Louisville and is already fit for the modern NBA with a good 3-point jumper( 38% at Ohio State last season). He will fit in perfectly as the modern-day big man and Portland gets a first-round player in round 2.
37. Sacramento Kings: Wendell Moore, 6-6 SF Junior, Duke
One of the more polished players in this year’s NBA draft, Moore developed into an elite playmaker this season at Duke to go along with already being an elite defender who can get to his spots and score when he wants to. Again, the Kings think they can compete this year and they will want someone more NBA-ready. Slot in Moore and he will immediately get 25 minutes per game and provide great depth for the Kings.
38. San Antonio Spurs (from Los Angeles Lakers via Chicago and Washington): Walker Kessler, 7-1 C Freshman, Auburn
San Antonio has done wonders with Jakob Poeltl and will do the same with Walker Kessler, one of the most dominant college shot-blockers in recent memory (4.6 blocks per game in his freshman season at Auburn). That is if they keep this selection. They already have close to a full team and unless they send two of these picks to the G-League will likely be trading this selection to a team like the Lakers or Clippers, both of whom want selections.
He terrorizes defenders down low and we could be looking at one of the best interior defenders in the NBA eventually, especially if San Antonio does what they always do in player development: Get the absolute most out of guys. Kessler has a very primitive offensive game and he is very slow, but that shouldn't derail a team like the Spurs to overlook that because of his elite interior defense.
39. Cleveland Cavaliers (from San Antonio via Utah): Bryce McGowens, 6-6 SG Freshman, Nebraska
McGowens could be a first-rounder from what I am hearing and Cleveland gets very lucky here if he falls to them. McGowens is an ultra-athletic guard that plays above the rim and can defend at a high level as well. His jumper needs work, but he has so much size, strength, and athleticism that not having a dominant outside shot shouldn’t affect him immediately in the NBA.
Yes, he will have to develop it eventually to reach his potential, but he is good in every other facet of the game that it’s not as big of an issue as it is with other prospects. One of the true sleepers of this draft, McGowens could turn into a very good NBA player with a more consistent 3-point jumper.
40. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Washington via Cleveland): Andrew Nembhard, 6-4 PG Senior, Gonzaga
The eventual replacement to D’Angelo Russell? Probably as soon as this offseason. Russell is a special offensive player, but he still doesn’t play good enough defense to stay on a contending team with a substantial contract.
Minnesota will probably look to move Russell either this year or next year, but either way, Nembhard is a polished offensive player, an excellent decision-maker with a high IQ, and is already a better defender than D’Angelo Russell. Slot him in as the primary backup to Russell in year one (if Russell stays put) and PG1 in Minnesota at the start of the 2023-2024 NBA season.
41. New Orleans Pelicans: Caleb Houstan, 6-7 SF Freshman, Michigan
Still viewed as one of the best 3 and D prospects in this class, Houstan struggled from downtown at Ann Arbor (35.5% which isn’t bad, but Houstan is supposed to be elite from 3PT range). Houstan is an above-average defender that turn into the prototypical 3 and D wing with time and development. The Pelicans will be enticed by Houstan’s long-term potential and develop him to be a part of their core within a couple of seasons.
42. New York Knicks: Josh Minott, 6-8 SF Freshman, Memphis
Minott keeps rising up draft boards because he improved every single game for Memphis, displaying continued development with his jump shot and ability to play above the rim. He should become a really good defender if developed correctly and will need time for his offensive game to come to fruition at the NBA level. Because of his size and athleticism though, Minott is a tantalizing prospect because of his upside.
43. LA Clippers: Scotty Pippen Jr, 6-3 PG Junior, Vanderbilt
A great decision-maker who can get to the rim with a multitude of shifty moves, Pippen Jr. is going to have an impact on an NBA team at some point. The Clippers drafted Jason Preston last year, but need another young point guard to bank on if Preston never improves. Pippen Jr. will spend some time in the G-League first, but once he shows everyone how dangerous of an offensive player he is, the Clippers will be waiting for him to make an impact in the NBA sooner rather than later.
44. Atlanta Hawks: John Butler, 7-1 PF/C Freshman, Florida State
Not another lottery pick for Leonard Williams and Florida State but still an impressive, extremely athletic prospect in this year’s NBA Draft in Butler. Elite shot-blocking and defensive versatility with a developing 3-point jumper that continues to improve, Atlanta can develop Butler in the G-League before giving him NBA minutes. Butler has one of the highest upsides for second-round prospects and the Hawks get a steal in Butler here at pick #44.
45. Charlotte Hornets: Iverson Molinar, 6-3 PG Sophomore, Mississippi State
Rising up draft boards is crafty lead guard Molinar who has a “picture perfect” jumper according to a lot of evaluators. Molinar is a late-bloomer who has astronomically gotten better each year evaluators have looked at him. Molinar also has that hustle and toughness that you can’t teach and that should give him plenty of opportunities to show off at the NBA level.
46. Detroit Pistons (from Brooklyn): Patrick Baldwin Jr, 6-9 PG/SF Freshman, Milwaukee
The former 5-star recruit had a miserable season before he got injured for the University of Milwaukee (where his dad coached until he was fired mid-season) shooting just 34.4% from the floor and only putting up 12.1 points per game in a very weak conference at a small school.
Nonetheless, the potential is still there as Baldwin has a rare mixture of size (at 6-9) and point guard-type skills. Baldwin Jr. should become an above-average defender at the NBA level because of his size, but it is very concerning that he didn’t display much effort in that facet of his game last season. A long-term prospect with huge upside, Baldwin Jr. will need good developmental coaches at the NBA level and hopefully, the Pistons can provide that for him. The Pistons take a huge gamble here, but one that could pay off.
47. Memphis Grizzlies (from Cleveland via New Orleans and Atlanta): David Roddy, 6-6 PF Junior, Colorado State
Roddy is a big body, built like a football player, but has the skills of a point guard. Roddy has a polished offensive game and can play the small-ball 4 or 5 at the NBA level. Mixed with toughness and efficient shooting, Roddy has been rumored to go much higher than this. If he falls to the Grizzlies, they wouldn’t mind picking up further depth on the roster, especially if Kyle Anderson or Tyus Jones leaves in free agency.
*Trade Alert* Timberwolves trade 48th overall pick to the Los Angeles Lakers for compensation
48. Los Angeles Lakers: Jabari Walker, 6-8 SF/PF Sophomore, Colorado
The Lakers buy their way into the second round searching for a win-now player that can play elite defense. The Wolves are willing to part ways with this pick since they already have picks 19 and 40, and don’t need the 48th overall pick. Jabari Walker was a possible first-round pick at the beginning of the season and didn’t really do anything dramatically to change that other than prospects passed by him development-wise.
Walker is an elite defender that can guard multiple positions, an above-average 3-point shooter, and an elite rebounder, all of which the Lakers desperately need more of. Walker has that perfect mixture of NBA readiness and some upside that GM’s of possible contending teams look for, and Walker just worked out for the Lakers this week. With the free-agent market having very few good 3 and D players, Walker provides a need and will have to play big minutes right away in purple and gold.
49. Sacramento Kings (from Chicago via Memphis and Detroit): Johnny Juzang, 6-7 SG/SF Junior, UCLA
Juzang is a bucket-getter and that’s really it right now. He displayed how many different ways he can score in the NCAA tournament last year, but struggled with consistency after coming back to UCLA for his junior year.
Juzang didn’t improve defensively to the extent scouts had hoped, and the inconsistencies of his offensive game pose an issue to how well it can translate to NBA-level defenders. Nonetheless, Juzang has size and scoring prowess that few other prospects have and that will be intriguing to teams that need an improvement in scoring.
50. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Denver via Philadelphia): Ismael Kamagate, 6-11 C 21 years old, France
Not much is known about the French prospect other than he is supremely athletic and a really good rim protector. What’s going to make Kamagate draftable despite him being 21 (older than most other international prospects) is the efforts he showed in developing a mid-range jumper.
Unlike the Christian Koloko’s, Jalen Duren’s, or Walker Kessler’s of this draft, Kamagate has expanded his offensive game and could turn into a decent mid-range jump shooter. The Timberwolves are in win-now mode and can take time to develop Kamagate.
51. Golden State Warriors (from Toronto via Philadelphia): Ryan Rollins, 6-3 PG/SG, Sophomore, Toledo
Rollins is an efficient scorer at all 3 levels and moves off the ball extremely well, something needed to play in the Warriors’ offense. With a smooth jumper and an overall versatile offensive game, the Warriors can help turn Rollins into an elite defender as well. This is a perfect fit if Rollins slides this far in the draft.
*Trade Alert* Pelicans trade 52nd pick to the Los Angeles Clippers for Cash considerations
52. Los Angeles Clippers (From New Orleans Via Utah): Trevion Williams, 6-10 PF/C Senior, Purdue
A gifted passer for a center that models his game after Nikola Jokic, Williams is one of the most NBA-ready prospects in this draft and will be able to contribute right away on both ends of the floor. Because of his age Williams has become a second-round pick, but he really has a first-round grade and should be a first-rounder.
One of my “big sleepers” from this year’s draft, Williams will provide much-needed stability down low for the Clippers who have had inconsistent play from Ivica Zubac and foul trouble from Isaiah Hartenstein. Wingstop doesn’t need any more wings. Go after a talented, multi-faceted big in this draft if they end up trading for a pick like I have them doing.
53. Boston Celtics: Jamaree Bouyea, 6-2 PG Senior, San Francisco
A hard-nosed point guard with an underdog mentality that can shoot the long ball and create for his teammates, Bouyea would be the perfect point guard in the second or third unit for the Celtics. He will immediately make an impact on a championship-contending team.
— Milwaukee (forfeited)
— Miami (from Philadelphia via Denver; forfeited by Miami)
54. Washington Wizards (from Dallas): Gabriele Procida, 6-7 SG 20 years old, Bologna (Italy)
The Wizards take a chance on the 3-point marksman with size out of Italy. Procida has been rising up all draft boards because of his size at 6-7 and his elite 3-point shooting. If he falls to the Wizards at 54 overall they will jump on the opportunity.
*Trade Alert"* Warriors trade 55th overall pick Nuggets for cash considerations
55. Denver Nuggets (Via Golden State Warriors): Moussa Diabate, 6-10 PF Freshman, Michigan
The French prospect is known for one thing: defensive versatility and the Nuggets desperately need to improve their 15th-ranked defense in order to win a championship next season. Slot in Diabate who has a developing offensive game and can defend positions 3-5.
56. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Miami via Indiana): Keon Ellis, 6-6 PG/SG Senior, Alabama
Ellis has great size for a guard and has the ability to control an offense with his scoring. His playmaking needs work, especially for an older player like himself, but there is no question that he is one of the more NBA-ready prospects and deserves a chance to play in the NBA after his resume at Alabama.
57. Portland Trailblazers (from Memphis via Utah): Gabe Brown, 6-8 SF Senior, Michigan State
Brown has long arms and plays elite defense, but he has also shown a much improved 3-point jumper. He can join the Trailblazers as a sparkplug that can hit threes and play defense off of the bench right away.
58. Indiana Pacers (from Phoenix): Michael Foster Jr., 6-9 PF 19 years old, G-League Ignite
Foster is a big body that has a natural and advanced feel for the game especially down low in the post where he kills defenders with his strength and finesse. He doesn’t have a 3-point shot yet and he is very limited offensively, especially for the modern NBA, but he is still very young and athletic with tons of room for improvement. The Pacers take a chance on a low-risk-high-reward type of player in Foster Jr.