NBA Full Playoff Predictions: Why people are sleeping on the Grizzlies to win the NBA Championship
Who will win each matchup and the coveted NBA Championship based on advanced statistics?
Advanced Statistics used in this article are gathered from NBA.com, StatMuse.com, and ESPN.com.
With the Play-In Tournament complete and the NBA playoffs officially starting today, it is time to run through some predictions on which team is most equipped to take home the hardware. This is arguably the most wide-open year in recent memory and I can name at least six teams that could win the NBA title this season.
The obvious favorites in the Eastern Conference are the Bucks and the Celtics, while the Western Conference is a little different with Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry’s injuries that could very well dictate how the playoffs will go. Curry is set to return today, but who knows how long it will take for the team to gel together, especially since Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have played limited games together this season.
The Jazz have to be favored by a lot to sweep the Mavericks if Doncic doesn’t play, and even though team representatives have kept quiet about his injury, many media members including myself are almost certain that Doncic will at least miss the first couple of games in this series.
Phoenix and Memphis are the only teams healthy entering the playoffs and have to be considered the easy favorites in the conference at the moment because of their balanced advanced statistics (elite on both ends of the floor) and their extreme depth.
Anyways, we have a ton of good first-round matchups including two juggernauts, the Brooklyn Nets, and the Boston Celtics, facing off in a rematch of their first-round series last season where Brooklyn came out on top.
The Philadelphia 76ers and the Toronto Raptors will face each other in what appears to be easily a 6 or 7-game series regardless of how people view each team. This will be a fun NBA playoffs and I am excited to predict the whole postseason yet again this year. I tried to be unique with my selections since most people will just pick an NBA Finals rematch from last season between the Suns and the Bucks. Let’s get to it!
Eastern Conference First Round:
#1. Miami Heat Vs. #8. Atlanta Hawks
This will be a better series than most people make it out to be because of Atlanta’s #2 ranked offensive rating of 115.4 and their #1 ranked TOV% of 12. The Hawks also own a team eFG% of 54.3 (8th in the NBA), and a team TS% of 58.1 (6th in the NBA). Trae Young is one of the most underrated players in the league as he finished first in both total points and total assists this season and doesn’t look to be slowing down.
Young hasn’t even had John Collins for the last month (and a lot of the season, as well since Collins missed substantial time with other injuries throughout the year). Young and Clint Capela’s pick and roll game is an absolute problem (although Capela will undergo an MRI after leaving the final Play-In game against the Cavs with an injury) and Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, and Bogdan Bogdanovic are all shooting lights out from 3PT range.
Onyeka Okongwu has also provided some interior defense depth to support Capela in Collins’ absence. However, the Heat are just too balanced of a team to lose to the Hawks and they also have better-advanced metrics.
Even though the Hawks have a great offense, their defensive rating of 113.7 is 26th in the NBA whereas the Heat have the 4th best defensive rating in the NBA at 108.4. The Heat also have a 113 offensive rating (12th in the NBA), a team eFG% of 54.7 (5th in the NBA), and a team TS% of 58.4 (3rd in the NBA), some of the best advanced shooting metrics in the NBA.
The Heat’s biggest concern is their 28th ranked TOV% of 14.9, but even that shouldn’t change the result of this series. It will be a 6 or 7-game series in my opinion simply because of Trae Young’s greatness, but I see the Heat coming out on top and living up to their 1 seed billing at least in this series. However, Atlanta is one of the strongest 8 seeds in recent memory and could pull off an upset so don’t be surprised if they do.
Result: Heat defeat the Hawks in 7 games
#2. Boston Celtics Vs. #7. Brooklyn Nets
This will be arguably the best series of any of the first-round matchups. Brooklyn would have had a higher seed if Kyrie Irving were able to play earlier in the year, especially on the road. They are truly a top 4 seed in the Eastern Conference and they are facing the best defensive team in the league. Like I mentioned in previous articles and podcasts, this Celtics turnaround is unprecedented as they almost entered a firesale at the All-Star break with a .500 record two weeks prior to the break.
With Jayson Tatum taking over as one of the best players in basketball, and Marcus Smart and company holding down the elite defensive scheme, the Celtics are now one of the most popular picks to make and even win the NBA Finals. Prior to the injury of arguably the Defensive Player Of The Year before he got hurt, Robert Williams III, the Celtics looked the part of a team that could steamroll through a tough Eastern Conference and destroy teams one by one.
Now their interior defense is a bit spotty with Al Horford and Daniel Theis leading the way instead of Williams III and Horford. Their perimeter defense is still lockdown with Grant Williams, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown, but the interior defense could cause them issues. The Nets don’t have a dominant interior presence (unless casual fans still consider Drummond very good on either end of the floor) and will have to rely on Durant and Irving to be as good as they have ever been to even have a shot at winning this series.
Ben Simmons hasn’t played basketball in a year, and although he is reported to be coming back in this series against Boston, who knows what he will look like on the court when he returns.
Seth Curry and Bruce Brown are the only other reliable guys on the team unless you count Drummond as the Nets have arguably the WORST depth in the NBA (which makes sense considering they are superstar-oriented and paying their 3 stars most of the team payroll). People don’t realize how depth is going to affect the result of this series like this. Yes, Kevin Durant is the best player in the series, but the Celtics are a more balanced team with way more depth.
Anyways, let’s go into the advanced statistics and the comparison really isn’t close. The Celtics have the best defensive rating in the NBA at 106.2 and the 9th best offensive rating in the NBA at 113.6. Their team eFG% is 54.2 (9th in the NBA), their team TS% is 57.8 (also 9th in the NBA), they have a TOV% of 13.9 (13th in NBA), and also own the 2nd-best Net Rating in the NBA at 7.4, right behind the Suns 7.5 Net Rating. Overall the Celtics are arguably the most balanced team in the NBA besides the Suns and that will give them the edge in this series even without Robert Williams III.
Brooklyn’s advanced metrics are obviously misleading considering Kyrie Irving couldn’t play most of the season, and they are a completely different team with him on the floor, especially offensively. The Nets have the 10th overall offensive rating of 113.2 and both the 11th ranked team eFG% and TS% of 54 and 57.9 respectively, all of which is remarkable without Irving all season. The Nets would have had a top 5 offense at least with Irving playing more games, and their defensive rating of 112.3 (ranked 20th in the NBA) isn’t as bad as their even more atrocious 113.2 (ranked 22nd in NBA) defensive rating last season.
This will be a fun series because of the matchup between a top 5 offense (with Irving) against the best defense in the league, who by the way, also ranks in the top 10 of every offensive category as well. Historically if a team has a top 5 defensive rating and a top 10 offensive rating, they will have a good chance to win the NBA title but the loss of Robert Williams III stings and without him, it will be difficult for the Celtics to come out on top in any series.
Again, no one knows when he will return, but speculation suggests that the earliest he could return is in round 2, meaning the Celtics will have to get past this series first. It’ll be difficult considering how dominant and efficient both Irving and Durant are on offense, but the Celtics are too talented on both ends of the floor and too deep to lose this series. Celtics get it done in 7 games at home.
Result: Boston Celtics beat Brooklyn Nets in 7 games
#3. Milwaukee Bucks Vs. #6. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have lost 14 out of their last 22 games, don’t have their most important two-way player in Lonzo Ball, and simply have no momentum going into this series. They are quite frankly lucky to have even avoided the Play-In Tournament with how bad they have been playing recently. This is a testament to how good they played in the first half of the season before the wheels fell off.
Nonetheless, the Bulls have awful advanced metrics for a playoff team as they are ranked 13th in offensive rating at 112.7 and 23rd in defensive rating at 113.2. They are also 10th in team eFG% at 54.1, 8th in TS% at 57.9, and 6th in TOV% at 13 all of which are pretty average in comparison to the playoff teams remaining.
The Bulls had the 4th ranked offense and a top 15 defense prior to Lonzo Ball’s injury, but they have played abysmally since, and once the #1 team in the Eastern Conference, the Bulls have now plummeted down to 6th in the conference and their advanced statistics have diminished with them.
Since Lonzo Ball was confirmed to be out for the rest of the season the Bulls stand no chance against the reigning defending champs. The Bucks have that sweet spot mix of a top 5 offense (3rd in offensive rating at 114.3) and a top 15 defense (14th in defensive rating at 111.1) which makes them arguably the favorite to get out of the Eastern Conference (unless Robert Williams III returns for Boston in the playoffs).
Like the Bulls, the Bucks have a top 10 TOV% at 13.3 but have even better shooting metrics with the 6th ranked eFG% of 54.6 and the 7th ranked TS% of 58 in the NBA. One of the most balanced teams in the league, Milwaukee can only be defeated by juggernauts such as the Celtics, Heat, Suns, Warriors, or Grizzlies. No one else is beating this team in a 7 game series and since Chicago still has DeRozan, Vucevic, and LaVine healthy, I will give them a game because of DeRozan’s greatness and the Bucks will win this series in 5 games, not a sweep.
Result: Bucks defeat Bulls in 5 games
#4. Philadelphia 76ers Vs. #5. Toronto Raptors
Death, taxes, and Doc Rivers choking a playoff series are three things that are certain in life. Doc Rivers may be the worst coach in the NBA, especially in the clutch time and that is evident over his blown leads in playoff series over the past few seasons.
He can blame it on Ben Simmons all he wants and this time around he will probably blame it on James Harden, but we all know whose fault it is with his game managing in the 4th quarter of big games. Even with the best 76ers team in recent memory, history will repeat itself, this time in the first round, not even in the second round.
The 76ers are an average playoff team advanced-metrics wise with an offensive rating of 113 (11th in NBA), a defensive rating of 110.2 (12th in the NBA), a team eFG% of 53.4 (16th in the NBA and behind the 15th ranked Lakers), a team TS% of 57.8 (10th in NBA and this metric is high since the 76ers are a good free-throw shooting team, something that is weighed very heavily in TS%), and a TOV% of 12.9 (which is actually pretty good and ranked 5th in the NBA).
The only positive of this team is that they can limit turnovers and James Harden has actually done a good job doing that so far. The obvious issue here though is how weak of a team this is on both ends of the floor, not even ranking in the top 10 of either offensive or defensive rating. History shows if a team does not have a top 5 offense or defense, much less a top 10 offense or defense, they will have a hard time winning an NBA championship.
It’s never been done as even the teams that won it all and lacked a top 10 defense like the 2016 Cavs and 2017 Warriors also had a top 5 offense. Not to mention Phily’’s eFG% is worse than the Lakers?!?!? I mean come on, if you are worse than the Lakers at anything you have no business making noise in the playoffs and the odds are stacked against you.
The Raptors, on the other hand, are the hottest team in the NBA winning 14 out of their last 20 games without a healthy Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby for part of that time. Pascal Siakam has been a top 5, yes I said it, top 5 NBA player over the past 20 games averaging 27 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.2 steals per game with an eFG% of 56 and a TS% of 59.7.
He has willed this team to victories over the past two months and the train will not stop running in this series as Siakam will dominate the 76ers, especially without Mattise Thybulle being available for half of the series to guard him (due to COVID restrictions).
Scottie Barnes is already one of the better two-way players in the NBA and should win Rookie of the Year over Evan Mobley in my opinion, Precious Achiwua is a center who is shooting close to 40 percent from 3PT range this season, and Gary Trent Jr. is a borderline two-way star in this league if he can just become more consistent on the offensive end. This team is so underrated it is crazy that NBA media isn’t talking about them being a dark horse to win the NBA championship.
The Raptors have the 9th ranked defensive rating in the NBA at 109.9, the 15th ranked offensive rating at 112.1 (not their strong suit), a miserable team eFG% of 51.8 (27th in NBA), an awful team TS% of 54.3 (also ranked 27th in the NBA), but also one of the best TOV%’s in the NBA at 12.8 (3rd in the NBA). The Raptors have very deceiving advanced metrics, and the argument I made about the 76ers could also be made about the Raptors, especially being one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA.
However, I said there could be a possible outlier as long as they have a top 10 defense, not even a top 5 defense, and the Raptors have the 9th ranked defense and have battled injuries all season long. The advanced metrics other than the defense and TOV% haven’t been consistent due to numerous injuries, different lineups, and Nick Nurse having to adjust in real-time.
Now I am not saying the Raptors will win it all, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them beat the 76ers and the Miami Heat en route to an Eastern Conference Finals appearance against the Bucks or Celtics. I am certainly not ruling that out. The Raptors are one of the deepest teams in the league, play elite defense, and take care of the basketball. What more can you want out of a team in a 7 game series as it will be tough for any team to beat them. The Raptors will win in 6 or 7 games, but I am gonna go with 6.
Raptors defeat 76ers in 6 games to advance.
Western Conference First Round:
#1. Phoenix Suns Vs. #8. New Orleans Pelicans (TBD)
I thought this was going to be a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals between the Suns and the Clippers, but Paul George got COVID and missed last night’s final Play-In game, which resulted in a loss against the streaking Pelicans, who have been clicking on all cylinders when both Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are on the floor together.
Congrats to the Pelicans, but I am going to keep this short. The Pelicans aren’t a top team in really any advanced statistical category. Their defensive rating of 112 is ranked 18th in the NBA, their offensive rating of 111.2 is ranked 19th, their team eFG% of 51.7 is ranked 24th, their team TS% is ranked 22nd at 55.7, and their TOV% of 14.9 is 21st in the NBA as well.
Obviously, those metrics are a bit misleading since McCollom has made this team better in every one of those categories throughout the second half of the season when he was traded to the Pelicans. It is also important to note that this team started off the season with a 2-14 record and are now in the playoffs which is a remarkable turnaround. They should be a contender next season with Zion Williamson hopefully back (if he doesn’t get injured again).
Nonetheless, they will get swept by the Suns. The Suns have the 3rd-best defensive rating in the NBA at 106.8, the 5th-best offensive rating at 114.2, the 4th-best team eFG% of 54.9, the 5th-best team TS% of 58.1, the 4th-best TOV% of 12.9, and the best NET rating in the NBA.
They are elite in every facet of the game and their 64-18 record is indicative of that. They have championship experience after playing in the Finals last season and have one of the best coaches in the NBA in Monty Williams as well. The Pelicans won’t even win a game. Suns in 4.
Result: Suns defeat Pelicans in 4 games
#2. Memphis Grizzlies Vs. #7. Minnesota Timberwolves
I don’t think this series is going to be as exciting as many media members are making it out to be. Even without Ja Morant over the past couple of weeks, Memphis has still looked like a top 2 team in the NBA as they have an absurd 20-2 record without Morant. One of the deepest and most balanced teams in the league, the Grizzlies don’t necessarily need to rely on Morant to win big games and that is evident with the 20-2 record without him.
However, that doesn’t mean they don’t need him since Morant is a budding superstar that is unstoppable once he gets into the paint and can affect the game in ways most others simply cannot with his mixture of body control, athleticism, playmaking, and scoring abilities. Nonetheless, there isn’t much pressure on Morant to score 30-50 points in a playoff series like last season.
The Grizzlies are even deeper than last year thanks to the trade for Steven Adams, the drafting of Ziaire Williams, the rise of Desmond Bane offensively, and Jaren Jackson Jr. being healthy and dominant defensively. Jackson Jr’s impact defensively has catapulted the Grizzlies to a top 5 defensive rating of 108.5 (2nd behind the Celtics since January 16th). Coupled with the 3rd (tied with Milwaukee for 3rd) best offensive rating in the NBA at 114.3, the Grizzlies are one of only two teams in the NBA to have both a top 5 offensive and defensive rating (the Suns being the other).
The only concerning thing about the Grizzlies is that their 52.2 team eFG% and 55.3 team TS% are both ranked 24th in the NBA despite their elite offensive rating. How is that possible? Well, the main reason is that the Grizzlies lead the NBA in field goal attempts per game with 94.4 attempts on average.
The Grizzlies’ ability to dominate defensively, continue to play at a high pace and get offensive rebounds (the Grizzlies have the best offensive rebound percentage in the NBA of 33.8) makes them outscore most opponents regardless of percentages. They are also the best overall rebounding team in the NBA with a 52.6 rebounding percentage. The Grizzlies still make on average 43.5 field goals per game which are the second-most in the NBA.
On the other hand, the Timberwolves also have good all-around advanced metrics with the 7th-best offensive rating of 113.8 and the 13th-best defensive rating of 111 in the NBA. The Wolves also have the 12th best team eFG% and TS% of 53.9 and 57.3 in the NBA respectively.
With Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, and Karl Anthony-Towns taking most of the load on offense, Jared Vanderbilt, Jaden McDaniels, and Patrick Beverley dominate the defensive end. Even though Towns had a miserable game against the Clippers in the Play-In Tournament, both Edwards and Russell stepped up showing that the Timberwolves can still compete without their best player on the floor (literally as KAT fouled out with over 5 minutes to go).
However, the Grizzlies aren’t the Clippers, no offense to the Clippers. The
Grizzlies are the second-most dominant team in the NBA right now with their mixture of elite rebounding, high-paced scoring, interior presence, and elite perimeter and interior defense. The Wolves simply won’t be able to hang with them as good as they are. It would be a miracle that the Wolves even take the Grizzlies 6 games. I think this series is over in 5.
Result: Grizzlies defeat the Timberwolves in 5 games
#3. Golden State Warriors Vs. #6. Denver Nuggets
If Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. were playing this would be a completely different series, but they aren’t. The Nuggets even being the 6th seed and finishing the year with a 48-34 record with Aaron Gordon, Monte Morris, Bones Hyland, or Will Barton as their second-best player is remarkable and why Nikola Jokic should win the MVP. Jokic finished the NBA season with the highest PER (Player Efficiency Rating) in the history of the NBA at 32.94 falling just short of the only player to ever receive a 33 PER.
However, the way Jokic is improving every single year, he could reach that mark as soon as next year. I don’t want this to be an article about how amazing and generational of a player Nikola Jokic is though. If you want to see that, go read my previous article detailing why Jokic is the clear MVP of the league this year. I am also coming out with an awards article on Wednesday of next week as well which will be fun.
Nonetheless, this will be a good series because of the Nuggets’ elite offense (1st in team eFG% and TS% at 55.6 and 59 respectively) and the Warriors’ elite defense. The Nuggets have the 6th-best offensive rating in the NBA at 113.8, the 15th-best defensive rating in the NBA at 111.5, and the best assist ratio of 20 percent in the NBA as well.
Most of this is due to Nikola Jokic being the best playmaker in the NBA and getting Morris, Barton, Gordon, Hyland, and others wide-open looks from the floor. The Nuggets are a dominant offensive team because of Jokic but lack the perimeter defense needed to slow down a healthy Warriors team.
The Warriors were the best team in the NBA when both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green were on the floor together during the first couple of months of the NBA season. They had by far the best defensive rating in the NBA at close to 103 (which is incredible), but once Green got injured, and then Curry, later on, the wheels started to fall off of this team defensively, and they still finished with the 2nd best defensive rating in the NBA of 106.6. Draymond Green would have also been the runaway Defensive Player of The Year and Stephen Curry would have been an MVP frontrunner if they had stayed healthy.
The reality is that both of these Hall of Famers complement each other more so than possibly any other two Hall of Famers in the history of basketball. Curry and Green are still great without each other, but when they are on the court together, Green’s offensive numbers flourish and Curry turns into a highly efficient 30+ PPG scorer instead of the inefficient 25 PPG scorer he is when Green doesn’t play. Curry shot the worst he has ever shot from 3PT range with Green being injured and that is due to no one else being able to get Curry open shots the way Green does.
Jordan Poole is a gifted scorer and playmaker, but he is no Draymond Green. The same goes for anyone that is good on the roster. This team desperately needs its big 3 of Curry, Green, and Klay Thompson to be healthy to win a championship, and guess what? They all are healthy right now with Stephen Curry set to return in game 1 of this series.
The advanced metrics of the Warriors really don’t matter since they would have had a top 10 offense and the overall best defense had Green been on the court with Curry most of the year. Their team eFG% and TS% both would have been ranked #1 as well. Even without Curry or Green to get players open shots for most of this season (Green more specifically), the Warriors still finished the year with the 3rd-best team eFG% of 55.2 and the 4th best team TS% of 58.2, which is remarkable and shows how great of a player Jordan Poole has become to take over part of the offensive duties, especially when Curry is out.
As a result, the Nuggets will be able to take this healthy Warriors team 6 games but will fall short because of their lack of health. Jokic will live up to his back-to-back MVP billing, but the perimeter defense will fall apart when Curry, Poole, and Thompson get going late in the game.
Result: Warriors defeat the Nuggets in 6 games
#4. Dallas Mavericks Vs. #5. Utah Jazz
Now, this has become a disappointing series that could result in a Jazz sweep if Doncic’s injury is as severe as it looks to be. We already know that Doncic will be out at least for the first game, but probably the 2nd and 3rd game as well since he is in a walking boot and has yet to practice.
Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are fantastic players and Dorian Finney-Smith and Dwight Powell are both playing good basketball right now as well. However, without Doncic the Mavericks are absolute toast. They will find themselves down 0-2 or 0-3 in this series before Doncic even returns and the Jazz could sweep the Mavericks if he doesn’t return at all.
With Doncic, the Mavericks have the 7th best defensive rating in the NBA at 109.1, something that is overlooked by many people because they are usually known as an offensive-minded team. The Mavericks have the 14th overall offensive rating in the NBA at 112.5, a team eFG% of 53.8 (13th in the NBA), and a team TS% of 57.2 (14th in the NBA) all of which are pretty average metrics for a playoff team.
The Jazz on the other hand have the best offensive rating in the league somehow at 116.2, and the 2nd-best team eFG% and TS% of 55.5 and 58.9 respectively, all of which indicate that the Jazz have the best offense in the NBA. However, this is the one team that I don’t care about how good their advanced metrics are since they will choke in the playoffs and look terrible as they always do. If Doncic does not play in this series, even Utah won’t choke, but they definitely will in the second round.
Another metric about the Jazz that is important to note is that they turn the ball over a lot (14.3 percent, 22nd in NBA), whereas the Mavericks don’t (13 percent, 7th in the NBA). The 1.3% difference is bigger than meets the eye. That is the difference between winning games down the wire or not.
Either way, Rudy Gobert has yet to have a dominant string of playoff series’ in his career, and can Donovan Mitchell carry the Jazz all by himself? Because we know what happens to the rest of the team in the playoffs. Furthermore, I think that Doncic will return in time to save the Mavericks’ season and the Jazz will be going home in round 1 with a historic comeback from the Mavericks.
Result: Mavericks defeat the Jazz in 7 games
Eastern Conference Semi-Finals
#2. Boston Celtics Vs. #3. Milwaukee Bucks
This has the making of a legendary playoff series, especially if Robert Williams III makes his return. The Celtics have the most dominant defense in the league coupled with a superstar in Jayson Tatum that can take over games. whenever he wants. Jaylen Brown has also proven to be great in multiple playoff series’ so far in his career as well.
As I mentioned the Celtics have that rare mixture of a top 10 offense and a top 5, but they lack the experience that Milwaukee has. Giannis Antetoukounmpo keeps getting better, Jrue Holiday is the best on-ball guard defender in the NBA besides maybe Marcus Smart, and Khris Middleton has that clutch gene that simply can’t be taught.
Not to mention Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis are both elite interior defenders that can hit the 3 ball with consistency. The Celtics simply don’t have the kind of depth and offensive versatility that the Bucks have, which is indicative of the Bucks having the 3rd-best offense in the league, while the Celtics have the 9th best offense in the league. Defense wins championships and although the Bucks didn’t finish in the top 10 of defensive rating in the NBA this year, they will step up and play elite perimeter defense in the playoffs, which will be the difference in this series.
The Bucks will simply make more shots down the stretch and use their depth that the Celtics don’t have to tire them out and take over late in the game. It won’t be an easy series win, but the Bucks will get it done.
Result: Bucks defeat the Celtics in 7 games
#1. Miami Heat Vs. #5. Toronto Raptors
The Heat will fare much better against the 76ers than they will the Raptors, considering the Raptors have a much better defense and are just a very big team. They have multiple 6-10 point guards, versatile bigs, and a coach that is arguably a top 3 coach in the NBA.
The problem is that Erik Spoelstra also is a top 3 coach in the NBA and has a Heat team that is hungry to get back to the NBA Finals. Bam Adebayo may be the Defensive Player of the Year, Jimmy Butler isn’t shooting efficiently but can still score at will and create for his teammates at an elite level, Tyler Herro has bounced back and become one of the best scorers in the NBA, and Caleb Martin, Omer Yurtseven, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Dwyane Dedmon, Gabe Vincent, and Kyle Lowry provide depth that very few teams can match.
I just think that the Raptors are playing the best out of any team in the NBA right now and also have a better defense. They also have arguably just as much depth as the Heat with Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., Precious Achiwua, Chris Boucher, Malachi Flynn, Thaddeus Young, Khem Birch, and OG Anunoby alongside stars Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet who lead the way
I like this Heat team a lot, but they haven’t been as dominant as the Raptors over the last 30 games of the season and that will be the difference. Siakam will take over the game more so than Jimmy Butler, Fred VanVleet will get hot in this series and show up his former teammate Kyle Lowry, and Scottie Barnes will turn into a certified star right in front of our eyes. This will result in the Raptors making their first Conference Finals since the departure of Kawhi Leonard. I think it is a danger zone if the Raptors let the Heat get a game 7 at home so the Raptors will have to win in 6 games which I think they are very capable of.
Result: Raptors defeat the Heat in 6 games
Western Conference Semi-Finals
#2. Memphis Grizzlies Vs. #3. Golden State Warriors
Talk about a good series huh? The Warriors are arguably the scariest team in the NBA when they are at full strength and the only team that doesn’t fear them is the Grizzlies, well, because they don’t fear anyone and are playing the best basketball in the NBA since February (other than maybe the Raptors, Celtics, or Suns).
The Grizzlies have the obvious edge on the interior because of their 34% offensive rebounding percentage, length, versatility, and defensive masters in Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. holding down the fort. The Warriors play small ball and Kevon Looney will get outclassed in every single way in the interior. Ja Morant will get what he wants on the offensive end because you can’t stick Draymond on him (he will have to guard Bane, Brooks, or Jackson Jr.), and Jordan Poole, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson can’t guard him.
The Grizzlies are also much deeper than any other team in the NBA including the Warriors as I mentioned in the first passage describing the Grizzlies. They are the most complete team in the NBA and although the Warriors have championship experience, they are older, slower, and turn the ball over more than anyone in the league besides the Rockets (15 percent TOV%). The Warriors will be able to play good enough defense to stay in the series, but as long as Morant stays healthy, the Grizzlies will defeat the Warriors in 6 or 7 games to get to the Conference Finals
Result: Grizzlies defeat the Warriors in 6 games.
#1. Phoenix Suns Vs. #4. Dallas Mavericks
If Doncic is able to stay healthy, this will be a 7 game series. I don’t care how good Phoenix is, the Mavericks are a different animal when Doncic is on the court, and Booker, Paul, and Ayton are all not as good as Doncic, which will be a problem. Nonetheless, the Suns have been the best team in the NBA all year long and ranked in the top 5 of every single advanced metric as I established in the previous passage on them.
They are a better defensive team than the Mavericks, have a better mixture of perimeter and interior offense, and are just better than the Mavericks at just about everything except they don’t have the best player on the court. Doncic is already arguably the best point guard in the NBA (sorry Steph) and who is going to guard him on the Suns? Jae Crowder? Mikal Bridges? Bridges is probably the best bet, but Doncic is still going to be able to give Bridges some work, especially down the stretch of games, which will result in at least 3 wins for the Mavericks in this series.
Chris Paul and Devin Booker will get Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson open shots and they’ll be better coached than the Mavericks, which may be the difference. The Suns will win this series in 7 games at home as it will prove to be a tougher test than previously expected.
Result: Suns defeat the Mavericks in 7 games
Eastern Conference Finals: #3. Milwaukee Bucks Vs. #5. Toronto Raptors
I’ve been super high on the Raptors’ outlook obviously as I have them going to the Eastern Conference Finals (which many of you will think is a stretch) but the buck stops here (or starts here if you get what I am saying). The Bucks have championship experience, are the deepest team in the East, and can match the length and versatility both offensively and defensively that the Raptors possess.
The Raptors will rely on Pascal Siakam to get shots over Giannis Antetoukounmpo, Scottie Barnes to get shots over Khris Middleton, and Fred VanVleet to get shots over Jrue Holiday, all of which is a recipe for disaster since those guys are all so good defensively. The Bucks will get back to the finals, but the Raptors will still make this a 6 game series because of their elite coaching and good depth.
Result: Bucks advance to the NBA Finals as they beat the Raptors in 6 games
Western Conference Finals: #1. Phoenix Suns Vs. #2. Memphis Grizzlies
Everyone is picking a rematch of Suns Vs. Bucks and I can see why. The Suns now have playoff and NBA Finals experience and are one of only two teams that sports a top 5 offense and defense. But guess who the other team is? The Grizzlies, who also have better rebounding and an interior presence with Jackson Jr. and Adams down low, a better point guard (this season at least) in Ja Morant who can get to the hoop whenever he wants, and depth for days.
The Grizzlies also are the quickest team in the NBA, and because of their offensive rebounding and pace of play, they get 94+ field goal attempts up per game. They will have to be more efficient in this series as their advanced shooting metrics aren’t great and they certainly won’t put up 94 shots a game against a dominant defense in the Suns, but I expect them to get it done since they aren’t scared and are the deepest team in the league.
I may be the only one predicting it since they have no playoff experience (besides a first-round exit last year) but this team is special as they will defeat the Suns in 6 games and celebrate in Memphis on getting to their first-ever NBA Finals
Result: Grizzlies defeat the Suns in 6 games and advance to the NBA Finals
NBA Finals: #2. Memphis Grizzlies Vs. #3 Milwaukee Bucks
An NBA Finals that no one except me will predict (mostly because of the Grizzlies and their lack of experience) this has the possibility to be one of the most exciting and even NBA Finals in recent memory. Both of these teams literally have the same offensive rating of 114.3, but the Grizzlies have the Bucks beat by a mile with their defensive rating and offensive rebounding percentage. Yes, the Bucks have championship experience and with another ring, Giannis Antetoukounmpo could enter the GOAT conversation just simply because of his age and what he has accomplished already in the league.
The Bucks could very well win this series, but the way the Grizzlies have put Memphis back on the map with their fearlessness and swagger shows that they won’t be scared of the moment. I wanted to pick a unique champion and I truly believe that Memphis is the team that people are sleeping on because they have yet to win a playoff series with this roster.
Ja Morant will score 30+ in every game and win Finals MVP, Jaren Jackson Jr. will lockdown Antetoukounmpo in game 7 down the stretch, and Desmond Bane will hit some big-time 3’s including the dagger in game 7. This will result in the Grizzlies completing a turnaround from a lottery team to a championship winner within a 3-year period, which is remarkable and should be celebrated as one of the most impressive championship runs of all time.
Result: Grizzlies upset the defending champs Bucks in 7 games to win the NBA Finals and secure Memphis its first-ever championship.