Mock Lakers GM Part 1: Exactly what Rob Pelinka and the Lakers front office should do this offseason
Based on cap space and advanced statistics of the incoming free agent class, here is exactly what the Lakers can realistically do to fix the mess they are in and turn back into title contenders
Advanced Statistics used in this article are gathered from “NBA.com”, “StatMuse.com”, and “ESPN.com”. Salary Cap information is gathered from “Spotrac.com”.
If you have watched “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” on HBO Max, you have witnessed exactly how a championship contender was built even in the midst of chaos. At that time, the Lakers were a joke of an organization but still had the #1 overall pick (who they used to select Magic Johnson) and an already 5-time MVP of the NBA NBA Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
Was that situation more fixable than this current Lakers team? Absolutely, but like Abdul-Jabbar, 4-time MVP and 4-time NBA champion LeBron James is still on the roster and despite him being 38, can still lead a team to an NBA championship and defy father time yet again.
The Lakers don’t have the #1 overall pick as they did in 1979, nor do they have any first-round selections until 2027, but they do have a healthy superstar to coexist with James in Anthony Davis.
Yes, he has spent more time in street clothes than playing NBA games throughout the last two NBA seasons, but when he is on the floor he still puts up 24+ points, 9+ rebounds, and 2+ blocks per game with extreme efficiency from the field. The main problem is that he is never on the floor.
Nonetheless, let’s get one thing out of the way; The Lakers are not trading Anthony Davis since his trade value is at an all-time low and has sunk like the titanic over the past 16 months.
Although there are question marks about him being able to play even 60 out of 82 games next season, if there is any slim chance he is able to stay healthy, the Lakers will undoubtedly be a playoff team even with the same roster (yes with Westbrook believe it or not).
With Davis and James on the floor, the Lakers had a .500 record this season which would have resulted in at least the 9 seed (something the now 8 seeded Pelicans had entering the Play-In Tournament).
That still would have been a colossal disappointment considering the greatness of both James and Davis, but health was a huge reason the Lakers fell out of the Play-In Tournament and there is no denying it.
Regardless, although speculation about trading both LeBron and Davis continues to ensue, the Lakers gave up everything for a championship window with those two and will not sacrifice that at this point of the process. Whether anyone wants to believe it or not, the Lakers have a championship core with James and Davis and a rebuild certainly doesn’t make sense with no first-round picks until 2027.
Stanley Johnson and Austin Reaves are under contract for next season and will undoubtedly be back unless the Lakers have to include Reaves in a Russell Westbrook trade (which would be devastating for Lakers fans who have watched Reaves’ development, especially in the last game of the season where he had a 30 point triple-double).
Wenyen Gabriel and Kendrick Nunn will also return assuming Nunn opts into his player option. Russell Westbrook and Talen Horton-Tucker will start the offseason under contract, but will both likely be traded (I will get to that) along with the 2027 first-round pick that the Lakers certainly don’t want to part with but will have to in a Westbrook deal.
Odds are that this Lakers team starts with this roster and these salaries for the 2022-2023 season before free agency:
PG/SF/PF: LeBron James, Salary: $44,474,988
PF/C: Anthony Davis, Salary: $37,980,720
SF/PF: Stanley Johnson, Salary: $2,351,521
PG: Russell Westbrook, Salary: $47,063,478
PG/SG: Austin Reaves, Salary: $1,563,518
SG/SF: Talen Horton-Tucker, Salary: $11,020,000
SF/PF: Wenyen Gabriel, Salary: $1,878,720
PG/SG: Kendrick Nunn, Salary: $5,250,000
Total salary already for 2022-2023 NBA season: $151,582,945
Remaining Cap Room before Luxury Tax: -2,582,945 since they are already 2.58 million over it.
At this point, the Lakers still have a Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception of 6,339,000 which they will use to hopefully get a versatile 3 and D wing if they miss out on Monk. Even though Monk is not a good defender by any means, he has gotten better defensively every single year and has the 3-level scoring ability to change the game. Since Robert Covington signed a 2-year extension with the Clippers, the wings that the Lakers can sign for the MLE aren’t the best.
Now, Otto Porter Jr. is the best two-way wing that the Lakers could afford for 6.3 million. This is concerning because Porter Jr. is the 8th man off of the bench for the Warriors and he would be the 4th best player for a Lakers team that wants to contend like the Warriors next season. Monk will likely sign elsewhere in free agency, but he could be persuaded with a promise of a contract extension the following offseason once Westbrook is off the payroll.
Nonetheless, if Monk leaves in free agency, I have mentioned in earlier articles on the Lakers that with a 38-year-old LeBron James and a slow but elite defender in Anthony Davis, they need to be surrounded by 3 and D wings that play D more than they can hit 3’s. The Lakers won a championship with the third-best defense in the NBA in 2020 and made the playoffs, but lost in the first round in 2021 with the #1 ranked defensive rating in the NBA.
What remains clear here is regardless of which coach the Lakers hire (and it should not be Quinn Snyder or Doc Rivers, but instead a defensive-minded wizard) they need to prioritize defense in free agency. Everyone that watched Lakers games knows that and hopefully Rob Pelinka, Kurt and Linda Rambis, and others within the organization understand the importance of defense as well.
Unless the Lakers can space out some of Westbrook’s contract or cut some salary in trading him alongside other pieces such as Talen Horton-Tucker and/or the 2027 first-round pick, they will only have that taxpayer midlevel exception of just over 6 million and six roster spots for the leagues veteran’s minimum.
This is part 1 of a 3 part Lakers Offseason Mock GM series so I will only explore the options through the Taxpayer MLE in this article. In the next article, I will discuss players the Lakers can get on Veteran Minimum contracts, and then in part 3, I will discuss who the Lakers can acquire in a Westbrook trade/and give a realistic mock roster for entering next season. So remember to stay tuned as this 3-part series is very important and informative as many people are interested in what the Lakers can REALISTICALLY do in free agency. Well, I am here to provide that for you so here we go.
Let’s begin with what players the Lakers can and should consider using their $6,339,000 MLE on.
Malik Monk: Expected salary: Anywhere from 6.3-14 million annually.
Monk will have the opportunity to get paid this offseason, but there is a chance he will turn down more money to run it back with the Lakers considering they are the organization that believed in him when no one else did. Monk was coming off of two up and down seasons where his production fluctuated, but the Lakers envisioned a dominant scoring wing that could coexist with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
That is exactly what they got as Monk proved to be an elite bucket-getter who could become a sixth man of the year candidate as soon as next season depending on where he signs. Monk was the most efficient player on the Lakers last season as he averaged 13.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.9 steals per game in 28.1 minutes per game with an eFG% of 57.8 and a TS% of 59.7 (some of the best-advanced shooting metrics of any guard in the NBA this season).
What is even more remarkable is that Monk shot that well attempting 6 3-pointers and 11 total attempts per game this season. He took a lot of shots and made most of them. Yes, Monk is still a liability on defense, but he showed drastic improvement in his playmaking and defense throughout the year and that should be promising for the Lakers as they will make him the #1 option for the 6.3 million MLE. Monk could be persuaded with the promise of a bigger contract next offseason once the Lakers aren’t paying Westbrook's salary.
Bruce Brown Jr., SG, Expected Salary: Between 5-10 million
The Nets won’t be able to offer Brown anything more than their own MLE because like the Lakers, they have 3 guys making over 35 million dollars next year (Durant, Irving, Simmons). Brown Jr. is a do it all guard/forward at 6-4, but he plays like he is 7 feet tall with his elite inside scoring and ability to get offensive rebounds. He is exactly the type of guy the Lakers need, a high-motor, ultra-athletic, young wing who can defend numerous positions and still has a lot to prove.
Last season, Brown Jr. averaged 14 points and 5 rebounds per game with an out-of-this-world TS% of 67.6, an eFG% of 54.3, and a 3PT% of 40.4. He is an elite free throw shooter too, and the Lakers desperately need better free throw shooting. Even though Brown Jr. had an extremely productive season and the advanced stats back that up, he doesn’t have a big enough sample size in the NBA yet to demand over 10 million annually.
Unless one team wants to risk a lot of money on Brown Jr, he should be attainable through any team’s MLE. This could end up being a bidding war between the Lakers and Nets and although Brown Jr. is not super tall, he makes up for it by doing everything else. This would be a home-run signing for the Lakers.
Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, Expected Salary: anywhere from league minimum to 10+ million.
Young has consistently shown that he plays elite defense, can play multiple positions, and does all the little things right (like running for loose balls, making the extra pass, hustling to get back on defense) which is exactly what a team that lacks effort and heart like the Lakers needs.
Young’s only downside is that he is almost 34 years old, and the Lakers desperately need to get younger. Nonetheless, because of Young’s age and him not playing a lot on the Raptors this year, the Lakers could be able to pick him up on a vets minimum contract, which would be an absolute steal.
It is hard to dictate Young’s market at the moment as teams could give him anywhere from a vets’ minimum to almost 10 million a year, but Young seems attainable regardless. Young only played 16.3 minutes per game on a good Raptors team but averaged 6.3 points, and 1 steal per game with an eFG% of 55, all while being able to defend multiple positions.
The only question here is whether Rob Pelinka agrees with me, which he should. This is a low-risk, high reward signing that you can likely obtain for only 1.8-2 million dollars and a player that can play elite defense and defend multiple positions.
Nicolas Batum, SF, Expected Salary: Minimum- 6 million
Batum has always been a consistent 3-point shooter and good perimeter defender but this is a reach for the Lakers considering Batum has been instrumental in the Clippers’ success over the past few seasons. Rob Pelinka has also expressed his desire to get the team younger and Batum (33 years old) isn’t the youngest guy on this free-agent market.
Batum averaged 8.3 points per game with a TS% of 60.8, an eFG% of 60.2, and a 3PT% of 40. Batum has reached the 40% mark from three over the past two seasons and will likely reach it again next year. Batum should be one of the Lakers’ priorities this offseason and although he will likely return to the Clippers, it is worth a shot to get a guy like Batum.
Kyle Anderson, PG/SF/PF, Expected Salary: 10 million+
This is a pipe dream for the Lakers considering Memphis has the most money of any team to spend this offseason and will likely give Anderson even more than he is worth. However, if there is any magic the Lakers can work to get Anderson on the mid-level exception, that would be another home run signing. Anderson averaged 7.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game with a 3PT% of 33, and an eFG% of 48.4, all while being able to defend multiple positions.
Now I know Anderson is more D than 3, but he can defend multiple positions and pass at an elite level as well, something that will complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis very well. He also plays at a slower pace, something that both LeBron James and Anthony Davis do as well.
He is basically a 6-9 point guard who can defend multiple positions and he would be a fantastic addition if the Lakers can somehow snag him with the mid-level exception. More likely than not though, Anderson will sign a multi-year deal with the Grizzlies as he is crucial to their success and depth as championship contenders.
Taurean Prince, PF, Expected Salary: Anywhere from 5-15 million
It’s hard to read Princes’ market considering he got paid 12.65 million dollars this season to be the 8th man off the bench for the Timberwolves. Prince is a legitimate threat from 3PT range (37.6% this season for the wolves) and is highly efficient from the field (56.4 eFG%, 58.9 TS%). He would fit in perfectly for the Lakers because of how efficient he is from the field, and his ability to guard positions 2-4, not to mention him being YOUNG (28 years old).
It’s crazy how important youth is to this Lakers team, who were exposed in many 4th quarters because they couldn’t hang with younger and faster teams. The Mid-Level exception could be in play here depending on how teams value Prince, but it’s hard for me to believe that teams will continue to give him 12+ million dollars a year to only play 17 minutes per game.
I think if Covington, Anderson, Young, and Batum are gone, Prince is a guy that would thrive with James and company on the Lakers and I know Pelinka is adamant about getting younger (hence Reeves, Johnson, Gabriel…etc).
T.J. Warren: SF, Expected Salary: Anywhere from 6-16 million
Warren’s market is probably the toughest to gauge. Once a star offensively of in the bubble regularly putting up 30+ points per game and willing his Pacers’ team to victories on countless occasions, Warren has dealt with serious injuries and questions whether he will ever be the same player remain.
That may work to the Lakers’ advantage as Warren would be a picture-perfect fit alongside James and Davis because of his playmaking ability, obvious 3-level scoring, and defensive capabilities.
He is most known for his offense and isn’t the greatest defender in the world, but he certainly isn’t a liability on the defensive end either. Warren is still young (28 years old) and should still have a long career ahead of him. This is a huge high-risk-high reward signing but it could turn into a home run signing as well.
Isaiah Hartenstein, C, Expected Salary: Between 5-10 million
It remains to be seen what the market will be for Hartenstein but he has already established himself as a crafty interior scorer on offense and a good shot-blocker on defense. He tends to get into foul trouble, which limits his value. However, Hartenstein is only 23 years old (turning 24 this offseason) and averaged 8.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game with a TS% of 66.4, and an eFG% of 64.5 this season for the Clippers.
The Clippers seem to be the favorites to resign him if they want to, but it remains to be seen what it will cost to sign him. Will he be affordable for the Lakers at a minimum contract or a mid-level exception? I don’t think it makes sense for the Lakers to waste their MLE on a center so unless Hartenstein is attainable on a minimum contract he is probably not going to be under consideration for the MLE unless it is a last resort.
Victor Oladipo, SG, Expected Salary: Mid Level Exception
Victor Oladipo’s value is only going to increase with continued stellar play this postseason, but as of right now questions still remain if Oladipo can ever become half of the same All-Star player he was three-four years ago.
The market for Oladipo shouldn’t be that substantial considering he hasn’t played over 36 games since his All-Star season in the 2017-2018 season. That could work to the Lakers' advantage though as Oladipo is still a gifted scorer who can guard multiple positions on the defensive end, which is exactly the type of wing that they are coveting this free agency. Chances are though that the Heat are impressed with Oladipo and he will re-sign with them.
Gary Payton II, PG/SG, Expected Salary: 4-6 million
Sources still believe that the Lakers would prefer to use the MLE on a versatile wing instead of a guard or a big, but if none of them sign with the Lakers, Payton II is a versatile guard that is an elite defender and an improving 3 point shooter. He is going to be recovering from an elbow injury and the Warriors will likely re-sign him, but if there is any chance that Payton II is available, the Lakers should take a hard look at him considering he can change the game with his elite defense and athleticism.
This is a funny predicament considering the Lakers had Payton II in their G-league system years ago and let him go for no good reason, but maybe they can persuade him to return to the purple and gold, this time on the NBA roster.
Tyus Jones, PG, Expected Salary: Between 6-10 million
Another two-way guard who is an elite playmaker with the highest Assist/ Turnover Ratio in the history of the NBA is Tyus Jones, who is showing out during the NBA playoffs by hitting big-time shots, getting guys open looks, and locking down the 1 and the 2 on the defensive end.
The only issue here is that I don’t think a team like the Grizzlies (who have the most to spend this free agency) will let Jones walk just like Kyle Anderson.
Jones has been an amazing second point guard option and the Grizzlies will likely offer him close to 10 million dollars a year making Jones an almost impossible option for the Lakers. Nonetheless, the Lakers have to shoot their shot even though it probably won’t work.
Delon Wright, PG/SG. Expected Salar: Between 5-10 million annually
Here is a wild card. Wright didn’t play well this year (8.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists in 18.9 minutes per game) but he is still an elite playmaker that can take pressure off of LeBron James to get shooters open. Wright is also an elite rebounder for his size and has developed into an extremely underrated defender as well.
I know the Lakers want wings, but Wright can guard multiple positions and help take some of the playmaking duties off of LeBron James. This could end up being a great signing even if the Lakers get frustrated that they missed out on Otto Porter Jr., Bruce Brown, Malik Mink, Nicolas Batum…etc.
Chris Boucher, PF/C, Expected Salary: Between 5-10 million
In all likelihood, the Raptors will retain Boucher and give him 7-10 million annually despite a “down” season, but if they don’t the Lakers can jump on the opportunity to sign a forward who is an elite defender and can hit 3’s more often than not.
Although Boucher had an amazing 2020-2021 campaign averaging 2 blocks, 14 points, and almost 7 rebounds per game with a 3PT% of 38.3, a TS% of 63.4, and an eFG% of 59.5, he struggled to get going this season only averaging 9 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 block per game with an abysmal 3PT% of 29.7, a TS% of 57, and eFG% of 52.3.
However, like the other free agents who are uber-talented but had a down year, Boucher may be expendable for the Raptors considering they have a multitude of forwards and Boucher struggled to get going this season. If the Raptors let him walk, Boucher would be another great signing for the MLE.
Otto Porter Jr. SF, Expected Salary: Between 5-10 million
Porter Jr. is exactly the guy the Lakers should be and probably are looking at. He is expendable for the Warriors with their depth and it’s unlikely they will resign him for anything but exactly the same thing the Lakers can sign him for. Porter Jr. may sign with the Lakers for the same contract if he is promised a bigger role which is highly likely.
Porter Jr. averaged 8.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game with a TS% of 58.1, an eFG% of 56, and a 3PT% of 37. Porter Jr. can defend multiple positions and should fit in perfectly alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
The only downside of this is that it’s hard to be a championship contender when Porter Jr. is your starting small forward. The reason why the Warriors are so good this year is because they only play Porter Jr. 22 minutes per game as he is the 7th or 8th man off the bench.
The Lakers’ goal is to get back to contention as soon as possible and although this would be a good signing, there would still be plenty of work to be done for the Lakers to contend again and the only other way is to acquire good players for Westbrook, which is a tall task.
Jeff Green, SF/PF, Expected Salary: Between 4-6 million
If everything goes wrong for the Lakers this offseason and they can’t sign any of the guys they want (Covington, Warren, Batum, Anderson, Jones, Young) Jeff Green is a decent compensation prize as he fits the bill of a versatile wing that can defend multiple positions, and provide value all across the floor.
His 3PT shooting has been up and down in recent years (41.2% for Brooklyn in 2020-2021 and then just over 31% this season for the Nuggets), but he is always a consistent two-way player wherever he goes. The only problem is that he continues to age (going to be 36 years old next season) and get slower, and the Lakers desperately need to get younger.
Although Green should be able to give a team good value for two more seasons, this would be a risky signing given his age. On the bright side, Green averaged 10.3 points per game this season with an elite TS% of 62.7 and an eFG% of 57.4.
In conclusion, I think the most viable option for the Lakers is Otto Porter Jr., who could be persuaded by being promised a larger role in the Lakers’ offense. He is affordable and attainable for the Lakers. However, since the Warriors have a better shot to contend next season, Porter Jr. may choose the upside of winning a title (or a second in a row title if Golden State accomplishes that feat this year as well) with the Warriors over the Lakers.
Victor Oladipo would be another solid pickup for the Lakers but he is proving this postseason that he is still worth 8-10 million dollars per year at least and the Lakers don’t have that money. Even if Oladipo does sign for an MLE it would be with the team that was most loyal to him in the Heat, so this he a longshot for the Lakers.
I already gave my doubts about Tyus Jones and Kyle Anderson, both probably unaffordable for the Lakers, and they would prefer to not give their MLE to a guard or a high-risk player such as Joe Ingles or T.J. Warren.
Therefore, the most realistic signing for the Taxpayer MLE is Thaddeus Young, who will be interested in having a bigger role on the Lakers next season. Young is a bit older than the Lakers prefer (34 years old), but he is a veteran with experience that can defend multiple positions, hit the 3-ball, and he plays hard and does all the little things in games that translate to wins (making the extra pass, extra offensive rebounds, rotating on defense, going for loose balls).
Young is the guy I think that the Lakers will convince to join the team and turn this team back into contenders. Young should be up for the challenge to do whatever is necessary to provide that for the Lakers.
Taxpayer MLE of $6,339,000 singing result: Thaddeus Young, SF/PF