Advanced Statistics used in this article are gathered from “NBA.com”, “StatMuse.com”, and “ESPN.com”. Salary Cap information is gathered from “Spotrac.com”.
Coming off of an NBA Finals appearance last year, the Phoenix Suns finished the 2021-2022 regular season with the best record in franchise history (64-18). The Suns were the best team in the NBA for all of the regular season continuing to win the majority of their games even when Devin Booker and Chris Paul would miss games. They were the clear-cut favorite to not only win the Western Conference again but also the NBA championship as well.
Unfortunately the level of dominance that the Suns displayed in the regular season disappeared in the playoffs. The Suns struggled to beat the 8th seeded Pelicans in the first round and got embarrassed at home in game 7 of the second round by the Dallas Mavericks. At halftime, Luka Doncic had as many points as the Phoenix Suns and entered the fourth quarter leading by 42 points.
How could something that went so well all season long go so wrong all of a sudden? Well, going into even just the sixth game of the Mavs series, the Suns ranked 1st in every advanced statistical category this postseason including eFG%, TS%, and Offensive Rating. However, after the Suns’ blowout win in game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead over the Mavericks, they weren’t the same team.
Cam Johnson wasn’t hitting the shots he had knocked down during the season, Deandre Ayton’s production all of a sudden vanished, Mikal Bridges was getting exposed defensively by Luka Doncic (which hadn’t happened all year), Devin Booker was missing wide open 3’s, and Chris Paul had arguably the worst 2 game stretch of his career in games 6-7.
Even though I am a statistics guy, there is no explaining this immediate and unexpected drop-off in production, since they were 1st in every stat category even entering the 6th game of the Mavs series and all of a sudden looked like a lottery team if that.
Maybe there were some internal issues going on in that background before this epic collapse happened, or maybe the Suns’ extreme confidence and trash-talking came back at them (hence Booker making fun of Doncic and the series was over after that).
Nonetheless, the Suns still have the goal of hoisting their first-ever NBA title in mind and they will do whatever it takes to make another run next season. What is important to note before I get into the salaries is that Chirs Paul (37) isn’t getting any younger, and Deandre Ayton could be on another team entering next season as his asking price could go up to 30 million per season and the Suns have been vocal about not paying any center that kind of money. When free agency opens Devin Booker will be able to sign a 211 million supermax extension after he was selected to the All-NBA first team last week.
2022-2023 NBA Roster before free agency
SG: Devin Booker, Salary: $38,833,400
PG: Chris Paul, Salary: $28,400,000
SF: Mikal Briges, Salary: $21,000,000
SF: Jae Crowder, Salary: $10,183,800
PG/SG: Landry Shamet, Salary: $9,500,000
SF/PF: Dario Saric, Salary: $9,240,000
PG: Cameron Payne, Salary: $6,000,000
SG/SF: Cameron Johnson, Salary: $5,887,899
SF/PF: Torrey Craig, Salary: $5,121,951
Total salary under contract: $129,167,050
Room remaining before luxury tax: $19,832,950
Although the Suns still have over 19 million remaining before entering the luxury tax, because they are over the salary cap (like most teams), they will only be able to sign players through their Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception of $10,294,00, their $4,017,00 Bi-Annual Exception, and Veteran Minimum signings. They will also be able to give Deandre Ayton a rookie extension because they have his Bird rights, but at this point, it looks like Ayton will be playing for another team next season. Let’s get into priorities for the Suns this offseason.
Priority #1: Give Devin Booker the supermax extension
I know he didn’t show up in many big games this postseason, but Devin Booker still finished in the top 6 of MVP voting, is the franchise player, and gives the Suns a 25+ point per game scorer who can change the game offensively. Yes, Booker needs to work on his defense as it gets exposed by offensive magicians like Luka Doncic and others, but Booker’s impact offensively outweighs his average defense.
The Suns only have a 1-2 year window left as Chris Paul is 37 years old and Booker is the face of the organization and will help the team contend for a long time. The Suns should and likely will give Booker the supermax extension as soon as free agency opens.
Priority #2: Sign and trade Deandre Ayton. The Suns NEED to get something in return for Ayton’s rumored departure and they will do so. A sign and trade is also the best opportunity to get a marquee player in free agency since the Suns are so limited cap-wise. I will go into specific Ayton sign and trade options in a moment, but that is where free agency needs to start for the Suns.
Priority #3: Find a way to part ways with Jae Crowder. The Suns should look into either finding a trade partner or discussing a buyout with Jae Crowder. The Jae Crowder contract is already hurting them as most executives around the league will tell you that 10+ million is a severe overpay for a wing with limited qualities in his game. Crowder isn’t hitting the 3-ball with consistency anymore and sometimes becomes even a liability defensively despite him being touted for his defensive first mentality.
Cameron Johnson will also be eligible for a rookie extension soon and he definitely deserves it. However, that won’t go into effect next season so it’s relatively unimportant for the time being. They already have Mikal Bridges signed to a rookie extension so they don’t need to worry about him for a while either.
Priority #4: Re-sign Javale McGee
At this point, the Suns could go in a multitude of directions in how to build their roster assuming they ship Ayton in a sign and trade. They could play a Warriorsesque basketball and go with a small-ball lineup with one center that crashes the offensive glass, or they could take small ball even further and use a power forward at center and have wings and guards at every other position on the floor.
Either way, JaVale McGee has to return as his interior defense off of the bench kept them in a lot of games this year. This was arguably McGee’s best season and the Suns could probably retain him on a minimum contract since most teams are under the salary cap and can’t give much more than that.
Priority #5: Sign another versatile 3 and D wing with their MLE
Getting a versatile 3 and D wing has to be one of the top priorities for the Suns as they are a dime a dozen in this free-agent class. Robert Covington was arguably the best one but signed an extension with the Clippers so that leaves very few options. The Suns should have a lot of momentum with their non-taxpayer MLE offer to some of these versatile wings because other luxury taxpayers like the Lakers and Nets, won’t be able to match 10.3 million. I will go into options later for the non-taxpayer MLE.
Although this season ended rough for the Suns and losing Ayton will only make it tougher for them to contend for a championship, they are still a high-end roster with one of the best coaches in the NBA. Let’s start with the Ayton sign and trade options.
Ayton Sign and Trade Options:
Option 1: Phoenix Suns Sign and Trade Deandre Ayton to the Indiana Pacers for Myles Turner and T.J. McConnell
Phoenix Suns Sign and Trade Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder to the Indiana Pacers for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield
The Suns would probably want a first-round pick attached to the first option of this trade but to make the money work they need to take on McConnell’s contract along with Turner’s. This is of course if the 30 million per year Ayton is eyeballing is true. Myles Turner is one of the best rim protectors in the NBA and has a smooth jumper from 3PT range. He will likely be the centerpiece of any trade surrounding these two teams. The Suns could do a small ball lineup with Turner at the 5 as Turner provides a lot of versatility on both ends of the floor.
The Suns could also add Jae Crowder in this trade and instead of getting McConnell in return, ask for Buddy Hield, which is another option. Hield would provide knockdown outside shooting, but would also be a liability defensivley. Nonetheless, Monty Williams is a brilliant coach and should be able to make lineup adjustments depending on every player’s strengths and weaknesses.
For the Pacers, Ayton would cement a dynamic young duo alongside Tyrese Haliburton to accelerate the rebuild process. Jalen Smith could also slide in at the 4 as Turner gets traded to the Suns here.
Option 2: Phoenix Suns Sign and Trade Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder to the Detroit Pistons for Jerami Grant and Isaiah Stewart
The Pistons going to get an All-Star type caliber big man to pair alongside Cade Cunningham and whoever they select in this year’s NBA Draft would be a home run. The Pistons have loads of cap space and would still be under the luxury tax even after giving Ayton 30+ million per year and taking on Crowder’s contract. They would likely give up an expiring contract in Jerami Grant and young big man Isaiah Stewart in this trade, but that could be a win-win for both teams.
The Suns won’t have to pay Ayton 25-30 million a season, get a versatile wing in return, and the Pistons can build around a young core with two former #1 overall picks.
Grant could be used as a small-ball 4 for the Suns as he provides a knack for scoring and defensive versatility. Stewart could then be implemented in Ayton’s role as a tenacious rebounder and interior presence at the 5 position.
Option 3: Phoenix Suns Sign and Trade Deandre Ayton and Landry Shamet to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr.
The Raptors have been linked to Deandre Ayton in the past (as they have to Rudy Gobert as well) and it’s no secret that they want to improve at the center position. Slot in former #1 pick Deandre Ayton and the Raptors immediately bolster their interior defense as well as their post offense and lob threat pick and roll sets.
With Scottie Barnes’ ability to slot in at really any position alongside Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and now Deandre Ayton, all the Raptors would then have to do is find one more scoring wing either in the free-agent market or in the draft. Getting Shamet in this deal provides an average wing who can start at shooting guard, but the Raptors will still have to improve at that position.
For the Suns, they get two 3 and D stars who can provide elite defense and 3PT shooting (more Trent than Anunoby at this point in time). If they slot in McGee at the 5 then the Suns would have a starting lineup of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Javale McGee, with both sharpshooters Gary Trent Jr. and Cameron Johnson coming off of the bench. This trade would raise both the Raptors’ and the Suns’ title chances in my opinion and would be a win-win trade.
Option 4: Phoenix Suns Sign and Trade Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder to the Atlanta Hawks for Kevin Huerter and Clint Capela
This isn’t the ideal situation for the Suns as it is for the Hawks, but Capela is a better lob and pick and roll threat than Ayton and Huerter is another knockdown shooter to pair with Cameron Johnson. Something that gets overlooked is Huerter’s ability to create his own shot as his playmaking has taken a step forward every year since he entered the NBA.
He is a bit overpaid after signing the rookie extension, but the Suns also get rid of Jae Crowder’s 10 million a year contract here while also not having to overpay at the center position. Capela can do all of the things Ayton can do on the pick and roll and he's a better interior defender. For the Hawks, it gives Trae Young another young star that can catch lobs and be an interior presence at both ends of the floor as well as a 3 and D player in Crowder.
Option 5: Phoenix Suns Sign and Trade Deandre Ayton and Landry Shamet to the New York Knicks for another Sign and Trade player in Mitchell Robinson, Cam Reddish, and Immanuel Quickley
I’ve been thinking a lot about this trade and it makes a lot of sense for both sides. New York is starved for star power and Ayton is considered a “young star” by many people despite his inconsistencies on both ends of the floor. Ayton would energize this fanbase alongside R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle and they can slot in young point guard Miles McBride in Immanuel Quickley’s spot. The Knicks don’t play Cam Reddish anyways so he is a throw-in player with loads of upside and they get a good shooter who can play defense in Landry Shamet in return.
On the other hand for the Suns, they get a cheaper and more dominant defensive version of Ayton in Robinson, a young player oozing with potential in Reddish, and a nice young point guard in Immanuel Quickley that can provide depth off of the bench and is continuing to improve every season. This is a win-win trade and I wouldn't be surprised if these teams are on the phone immediately when free agency begins.
Which option comes to fruition? Option 2 as the Suns Sign and Trade Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder to the Detroit Pistons for Jerami Grant and Isaiah Stewart
The Pistons have been linked to Ayton and have been actively shopping Jerami Grant. They also have the cap space to give Ayton 30 million per year without it putting them in the luxury tax territory. Ayton is not worth more than 20 million dollars a year, but someone will overpay for him and the Pistons should be that team. Ayton and Cunningham would provide a fun and exciting young duo and give fans something to be hopeful about in Detroit.
For the Suns, they get another versatile wing in Grant who can take over games offensively, and a tenacious rebounding young center in Stewart who is still finding his full identity in the NBA. There is a lot to like from both sides here and this is the deal I expect to get done. The Suns would also get rid of Crowder’s awful contract.
Now let’s get into the options for the final 4 roster spots in free agency that will be done through the Non-Taxpayer MLE and veteran minimum signings.
Options for the Non-Taxpayer MLE of $10,264,000
SG/SF: Bruce Brown Jr., Expected Salary: 3-10 million
The Nets could lose Brown Jr. this offseason if he thinks Brooklyn isn’t going to contend. The Nets have his bird rights and can offer him a substantial amount even with their financial constraints (3 guys making over 35 million dollars next year (Durant, Irving, Simmons).
However, the Suns offer of 10,264,000 is a lot and could persuade the guard. Brown Jr. is a do it all guard/forward at 6-4, but he plays like he is 7 feet tall with his elite inside scoring and ability to get offensive rebounds. He is exactly the type of guy the Suns want, a high-motor, ultra-athletic, young wing who can defend numerous positions and still has a lot to prove.
Last season, Brown Jr. averaged 14 points and 5 rebounds per game with an out-of-this-world TS% of 67.6, an eFG% of 54.3, and a 3PT% of 40.4. He is an elite free throw shooter too, and the Suns desperately need better free throw shooting.
Unless one team wants to risk a lot of money on Brown Jr, he should be attainable through most teams’ MLE. This could end up being a bidding war of who will offer him the most money and the Suns have a lot of momentum with the 10+ million MLE vs. the 6.3 million MLE.
SF: Otto Porter Jr., Expected Salary: 3-10 million
It remains likely that Porter Jr. will re-sign with the Warriors this offseason for the Taxpayer MLE, but if there is any chance he is willing to leave, the Suns have an extra 4 million dollars that they can give him, which could be enticing.
Porter Jr. averaged 8.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game with a TS% of 58.1, an eFG% of 56, and a 3PT% of 37. Porter Jr. can defend multiple positions and would be a perfect fit alongside anyone, especially with the two-way impact he has had this postseason. Winning a championship seems more enticing though so I think Porter Jr. remains a Warrior next season.
SG/SF: Gary Harris Jr., Expected Salary: 5-10 million
Harris made 21 million last season and he will get nowhere close to that this offseason. He averaged 11.1 points and 2 rebounds per game with an eFG% of 53.9, a TS% of 57.1, and a PER of 10.89. Harris simply isn’t the same player he was just four seasons ago when he averaged over 17 points per game for the Nuggets in the 2017-2018 NBA season.
However, Harris is still a consistent 3-point shooter who will impact any team he joins offensively. Maybe a change in scenery will allow Harris to get back to what he once was and he should get a ton of open shots on a Suns team with a lot of weapons. The Suns could easily give Harris their non-taxpayer MLE of just over 10 million and he would sign.
SG/SF: T.J. Warren, Expected Salary: 2-10 million
Do you take a gamble on a player that hasn’t been healthy in over 2 years? Is Warren even half of the player he once was in the bubble where he regularly put up 30+ points? This is a high-risk high-reward signing and because of Warren’s inability to stay healthy, he could be available for a discounted price.
Returning to the Suns could be beneficial to both sides as Warren would provide a knack for scoring to help alleviate the pressure Devin Booker and Chris Paul have on the offensive end of the floor. However, Warren is still a spotty defender and the Suns prioritize defense. The fit isn’t amazing, but a high-risk high-reward player like Warren is quite enticing.
SF/PF: Thaddeus Young, Expected Salary: 5-10 million
Young has consistently shown that he plays elite defense, can play multiple positions, and does all the little things right (like running for loose balls, making the extra pass, hustling to get back on defense) which is always a positive for a team.
It is hard to dictate Young’s market at the moment as teams could give him anywhere from a vets’ minimum to almost 10 million a year, but Young seems attainable regardless. Young only played 16.3 minutes per game on a good Raptors team but averaged 6.3 points, and 1 steal per game with an eFG% of 55, all while being able to defend multiple positions.
He is a veteran that will help any team win, the only question is whether he will get a veteran minimum deal or 5+ million dollars? The Suns could offer him 10 which could be a stretch.
C: Thomas Bryant, Expected Salary: 5-10 million
Bryant had a very productive season two years ago but since then has struggled with injuries. The Wizards have his bird rights and can offer him more than any other team, but he is another talented center option if the Suns truly decide to move on from Ayton.
PF/C: Chris Boucher, Expected Salary: 5-10 million
In all likelihood, the Raptors will retain Boucher and give him 7-10 million annually despite a “down” season, but if they don’t the Suns can jump on the opportunity to sign a forward who is an elite defender and can hit 3’s more often than not.
Although Boucher had an amazing 2020-2021 campaign averaging 2 blocks, 14 points, and almost 7 rebounds per game with a 3PT% of 38.3, a TS% of 63.4, and an eFG% of 59.5, he struggled to get going this season only averaging 9 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 block per game with an abysmal 3PT% of 29.7, a TS% of 57, and eFG% of 52.3.
However, like the other free agents who are uber-talented but had a down year, Boucher may be expendable for the Raptors considering they have a multitude of forwards and Boucher struggled to get going this season. If the Raptors let him walk, Boucher would be another great signing for the MLE.
SG/SF: Victor Oladipo, Expected Salary: 5-10+ million
In all likelihood, Oladipo will re-sign with the team that gave him an opportunity (the Miami Heat). Oladipo showed out this postseason giving fans glimpses of the old All-Star Oladipo and he will be a great signing for whoever can sign him. However, questions still remain if Oladipo can ever become half of the same All-Star player he was three-four years ago.
The market for Oladipo shouldn’t be that substantial considering he hasn’t played over 36 games since his All-Star season in the 2017-2018 season. That could work to the Suns’ advantage though as Oladipo is still a gifted scorer who can guard multiple positions on the defensive end, which is exactly the type of wing that they are coveting this free agency. Chances are though that the Heat are impressed with Oladipo and he will re-sign with them.
C: Kevin Looney, Expected Salary: Anywhere from 3-10 million
Looney has been a godsent this postseason as an offensive rebounding monster and an elite interior defender. With James Wiseman set to come back next season, do the Warriors see Looney as expendable?
They have to extend Poole at some point and already have the highest payroll in the NBA so they may not be able to give Looney the money he desires this offseason. If Ayton is gone, the Suns should strongly consider giving Looney 5-10 million dollars as he has been a difference-maker this postseason and will only improve.
Options for Veteran minimum contracts
C: JaVale McGee, Expected Salary: Minimum
For all the reasons I mentioned earlier when discussing McGee, the Suns HAVE to re-sign him and I believe that they will.
C: Hassan Whiteside, Expected Salary: Minimum
Whiteside is another center option that is an elite interior defender and one of the most efficient players in the NBA. Whiteside only averaged 17.9 minutes per game, but put up averages of 8.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game with a TS% of 66.2, an eFG% of 65.2, and a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 22.96 (which ranks 11th in the NBA despite playing limited minutes). The statistics don’t lie and Whiteside is one of the most productive and efficient players in the NBA, especially on the defensive end.
On a per 40-minute basis, Whiteside would average over 18 points, 18 rebounds, and 5 blocks per game which is simply remarkable. I think Whiteside signs elsewhere, but this is always an option.
SF: Tony Snell, Expected Salary: Minimum
Experience, experience, experience. Tony Snell does nothing extraordinary, but he is a solid 3 and D option that helps a team more than he hurts a team. Why not give him a minimum contract to provide depth off of the bench?
SG/SF: Wesley Matthews, Expected Salary: Minimum
The Wesley Matthews experiment did not work for the Lakers in the 2020-2021 NBA season as he was only 33.5% from 3PT range and was seen as a liability on defense. He was unplayable once the Lakers got into the play-in tournament and playoffs, but this season for the Bucks he was back up to 39.5% from 3PT range and was much better defensively. The Suns can’t get enough of 3 and D wings so why not get a proven veteran to come off of the bench especially if Jae Crowder is gone.
Danuel House: SF/PF, Expected Salary: Minimum
House doesn’t do anything that jumps off the board, but he is a consistent 3PT shooter (37.6%) and can defend both the wing and the guard positions. He is still young (28 years old) and put up just under 6 points and 3 rebounds per contest while only playing 17.3 minutes per game.
He was an integral part of the Utah Jazz’s top 10 defense and should be able to provide 20+ minutes of good defense and smart offensive basketball plays off of the bench for the Suns. He is expected to be in consideration for a minimum contract from a lot of teams, but he could come over to the Suns if he wants to continue to prove himself on a team looking to contend.
SG: Bryn Forbes, Expected Salary: Minimum
Forbes is extremely consistent from 3PT range (41.4%) and could be available for as low as the league minimum. Shooting is at a premium in today’s NBA and many teams could be looking at Forbes as an option off of the bench. I can see him fitting in perfectly in Phoenix.
SF: Ben McLemore, Expected Salary: Minimum
McLemore has been uber consistent from 3PT range over the past few seasons as he shot 36.2% from 3 this past season for the Blazers and 35% from 3 with well over 5 attempts per game for the Lakers in the 2020-2021 NBA season. A true marksman that isn’t terrible defensively is always going to be wanted by teams, and although Portland probably gives McLemore a generous offer, the Suns could give him the possibility of getting minutes on a contending team. That could convince McLemore to sign with the Suns.
I think that the Suns will use their Non-Taxpayer MLE to sign Gary Harris, who will provide elite scoring and 3PT shooting. They can make up for his liabilities on defense with a more dynamic offense. Then I think the suns sign JaVale McGee for the reasons I mentioned earlier.
He has been electric for them and I see no reason why an agreement from both sides can’t be made, even on the league minimum salary. Bryn Forbes is another marksman that the Suns can get for cheap. Like Harris, his defense is questionable but his knockdown 3-point shooting can open up the game and the Suns need that off of the bench.
Next, I have the Suns using their final roster spot to sign Ben McLemore who has established himself as one of the more consistent 3 and D players in the NBA. He will provide shooting and defense off of the bench. After the Ayton and Crowder trade, Jerami Grant and Isaiah Stewart are both on the roster now, and below is the full 14-man roster entering next season. The Suns will look to contend with this roster and get back to the NBA Finals.
Final 2022-2023 NBA season Suns roster
SG: Devin Booker, Salary: $38,833,400
PG: Chris Paul, Salary: $28,400,000
SF: Mikal Briges, Salary: $21,000,000
SF: Jerami Grant, Salary: $20,955,000
SG/SF: Gary Harris, Salary: 10,264,000
PG/SG: Landry Shamet, Salary: $9,500,000
SF/PF: Dario Saric, Salary: $9,240,000
PG: Cameron Payne, Salary: $6,000,000
SG/SF: Cameron Johnson, Salary: $5,887,899
SF/PF: Torrey Craig, Salary: $5,121,951
C: Isaiah Stewart, Salary: $3,433,320
C: JaVale McGee, Salary: $2,600,000
SG: Bryn Forbes, Salary: $2,600,000
SF: Ben McLemore, Salary: $2,600,000
Offseason Grade: B
Losing Ayton hurts even if they get Jerami Grant and Isaiah Stewart in return. I know that this decision is the best of both worlds considering Ayton wants more money than he deserves at a position that is less valuable in today’s NBA. The Suns do the best they can to maintain in contention despite losing the former #1 overall pick via trade.
They re-sign McGee, take a gamble on Gary Harris and Bryn Forbes despite their up and down defensive abilities, and go all-in on wings. They don’t have a true Power Forward but have 8 players that can slide in at the 3 or the 4. That seems to be a strategy that is working in today’s NBA (just look at the two teams in the NBA Finals). A B grade is the best grade the Suns can get if the offseason goes exactly this way since Ayton did help them a lot despite what people may say about his impact.