Mock GM: New Orleans Pelicans
What should the Pelicans prioritize this offseason to build off a successful season that featured an unprecedented turnaround?
Advanced Statistics used in this article are gathered from “NBA.com”, “StatMuse.com”, and “ESPN.com”. Salary Cap information is gathered from “Spotrac.com”.
This will be the first team of my “Mock GM” series, where I gather all of the salary cap and upcoming free agent information and then, using advanced statistics and team fit, decide which players will bolster the teams’ talent ceiling.
The New Orleans Pelicans are coming off of a 4-2 series loss against the Phoenix Suns where they surprised everyone, using their grit and elite scoring production (primarily from Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum) to give the Suns a run for their money.
There was a time when many people thought that the Pelicans would win this series, and they didn’t even have Zion Williamson. If you have followed basketball this season then I don’t have to tell you that the future is bright for the Pelicans.
Brandon Ingram ascended into a borderline superstar in the series against the Suns, while undrafted rookie Jose Alvarado and second-round steal Herbert Jones showed off their elite defense and grit that could become the identity of this team.
Ingram has improved as a defender, Valancuinas is an interior monster, and Devonte’ Graham and C.J. McCollum are good playmakers/scorers but need to work on their defense immensely.
Nonetheless, before I get into the team’s 2021-2022 team statistics, you already know where I am going with this: To compete for an NBA title, the Pelicans desperately need to improve their defense with more 3 and D versatile wings that can defend multiple positions.
Their offense is already going to be led by Ingram, McCollum, and Zion Willamson (when he returns to full strength) so to improve this offseason and set up a championship-contending team that can hang with the Suns, Mavericks, and Warriors of the Western Conference, the Pelicans will need to improve their defensive numbers. Or they could just upgrade their offense even further and see if they can develop some of their guys on contract into elite defenders.
In the 2021-2022 NBA season, the Pelicans had the 18th ranked defensive rating in the NBA of 112, the 19th ranked offensive rating of 111.2, a team TS% of 55.7 (22nd in NBA), a team eFG% of 51.7 (24th in NBA), and had the 3rd-best defensive rebounding percentage (DREB%) of 74.2.
However, the Pelicans also started off the year 2-14 and didn’t get their offense going until late in the season when Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum were both healthy.
I have used this statistic many times: The Pelicans were 12-3 to end the NBA regular season when both Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum played together. Therefore, their advanced metrics are misleading since the team ranked in the top 10 in offense and defense during the last two weeks of the NBA season and continued throughout the playoffs.
Therefore, the Pelicans already have two elite defenders in Alvarado and Jones (Jones may already be a top 5 defender in the NBA), and like I mentioned earlier Ingram has turned into a very good defender as well.
The Pelicans already have used much of their salary cap for next season as their roster stands at 14 entering the free agency period: in other words, a full NBA roster. However, the Pelicans are likely to waive/trade Garrett Temple, Larry Nance Jr., Naji Marshall, and Willy Hernangomez, while also sending Kira Lewis Jr. to the NBA G League to free up some cap space and roster positions. They could also part ways with Devonte’ Graham.
Here is the Pelicans’ projected roster entering Free Agency
2022-2023 NBA season roster:
C.J. McCollum, Salary: $33,333,333
Brandon Ingram, Salary: $31,650,600
Jonas Valancuinas, Salary: $14,700,000
Zion Williamson, Salary: $13,534,817
Devonte’ Graham, Salary: $11,550,000
Larry Nance Jr., Salary: $9,672,727
Jaxson Hayes, Salary: $6,803,012
Garrett Temple, Salary: $5,155,500
Kira Lewis Jr., Salary: $4,004,280
Trey Murphy III, Salary: $3,206,520
Willy Hernangomez, Salary: $2,443,581
Herbert Jones, Salary: $1,785,000
Naji Marshall, Salary: $1,782,621
Jose Alvarado, Salary: $1,563,518
Total Salary: $141,185,509
Salary remaining before Luxury Tax: $7,814,491
The Pelicans will already have a non-taxpayer mid-level exception worth $10,264,00 million dollars to sign a player if they continue to remain under the luxury tax threshold and that is very important. They also have 17 million of trade exception credit that they can use to offload some of the bad contracts they have such as Graham’s 11.5 million, Temple’s 5 million, and Nance Jr’s 9.6 million to help acquire another high-level player with a huge contract.
If you are unaware of exactly how a trade exception works, let me explain it because it isn’t easy to understand. The Pelicans made numerous trades last season (C.J. McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas…etc) and they received 17 million dollars in trade exception credit because they dumped more salary than they received, 17 million dollars more in fact.
Therefore, they can use that trade exception credit to take on 17 more million dollars worth of a player/player’s salary than they give out to the team they are trading with. Let's say that the Pelicans want to take on Terry Rozier’s salary (a legitimate possibility) of $21,486,316 for next season.
Rozier is a gifted offensive player who can contribute as a lead and an off guard right away for New Orleans. The Pelicans could send off only Graham’s 11 million dollar contract and throw in a first-round pick for the Hornets to accept, and even without including Nance Jr. or Temple in that trade, they could make it happen and still have over 7 million dollars of trade exception credit remaining.
Terry Rozier will enter the first year of his extension contract of 4 years $96,258,694 next season and the Pelicans would still be able to pay the 2022-2023 season’s worth of Rozier’s contract without it affecting their cap space for the 2022-2023 season because of the trade exception.
Now if the Pelicans actually make this trade, it doesn’t provide much of a financial cushion to extend Zion Williamson to a max contract, unless they see Rozier as a 1-2 year rental before Williamson’s expected contract extension kicks in during the 2023-2024 season.
Despite dealing with a multitude of injuries over the past couple of seasons, Williamson is still one of the NBA’s brightest stars who averaged 27 points and 7.2 rebounds per game with an incredibly efficient TS% and eFG% of 64.9 and 61.6 respectively.
The Zion Williamson contract extension should be the Pelicans’ first priority and when they get that done, they can assess how they can acquire a big-time player to contend for the 2022-2023 season before Williamson’s extension kicks in during the 2023-2024 NBA season.
Nonetheless, 1-year rentals of Terry Rozier, Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, or Jerami Grant are all options after the Zion extension. If they find out that they prefer a Brogdon, Rozier, or Grant over C.J. McCollum then they could look to move other players on the roster for future seasons.
The Pelicans know that they can compete next year and will use the exception to their advantage and pair another big-time player alongside Ingram, Williamson, and McCollum.
So let’s explore who the Pelicans can sign with their non-taxpayer MLE of $10,264,000 once they clear up some roster spots and extend Williamson. They probably won’t have enough roster spots to also sign players to veterans minimum contracts unless they get rid of more than three players. Furthermore, because the Pelicans have limited roster flexibility I am only going to explore who they can sign with the non-taxpayer MLE and who they can acquire via trade.
Bruce Brown Jr. SF, Expected Salary: 5-10 million annually
The Nets won’t be able to offer Brown anything more than their own MLE because they have 3 guys making over 35 million dollars next year (Durant, Irving, Simmons).
Brown Jr. is a do-it-all guard/forward at 6-4, that plays like he is 7 feet tall with his elite inside scoring and ability to get offensive rebounds. Brown could become enamored with a Pelicans offer of 10 million dollars which would probably be over his market value.
I think 10 million is a little much for Brown Jr., but considering what Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado bring with defense and energy, Brown Jr. will be a perfect fit in this gritty Pelicans team that is establishing a new identity.
Last season, Brown Jr. averaged 14 points and 5 rebounds per game with an out-of-this-world TS% of 67.6, an eFG% of 54.3, and a 3PT% of 40.4. He is an elite free throw shooter too that will give a team everything he has.
Victor Oladpio, Expected Salary: Minimum-10 million
Victor Oladipo’s value is only going to increase with continued stellar play this postseason, but as of right now questions still remain if Oladipo can ever become half of the same All-Star player he was three-four years ago. That is a bit concerning for the Pelicans, considering they already have a second-round in the playoffs type of roster even if they do nothing this offseason.
Oladipo remains a high-risk high-reward signing that could prove beneficial for the Pelicans. Oladipo plays tough defense and is a gifted scorer, not to mention he could lead the second unit on the Pelicans when Ingram, Williamson, and McCollum are resting.
The market for Oladipo shouldn’t be that substantial considering he hasn’t played over 36 games since his All-Star season in the 2017-2018 season. The Pelicans may be able to get away with offering Oladipo a lot less money and using the extra cap space to prioritize players in the trade market.
T.J. Warren, Expected Salary: Minimum-10 million
Warren is another guy that’s market is tough to gauge. He is not the same player that consistently dropped 30+ points in the bubble and led Indiana to some crazy wins.
He has been injured much of the last two seasons, but in the time he has been healthy, Warren is still a productive player that should be valued. He probably never returns to “bubble” form, but even if you get half of that production from Warren at 5-10 million dollars annually that is a steal.
The Pelicans would be entering another high-risk high-reward situation with Warren, but it could become a home run signing if it pans out.
Otto Porter Jr., Expected Salary: 5-10 million
Porter Jr. has flourished off of the bench for the Warriors this season averaging 8.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game with a TS% of 58.1, an eFG% of 56, and a 3PT% of 37. He is a good defender, an established scorer, and a guy that does all the little things right.
The Pelicans can surely afford Porter Jr. who made 2.39 million dollars this year for the Warriors and they don’t have to go all the way up to 10 million as long as they can offload the salaries of some other guys and get a roster opening (they are at 14 roster spots right now). They can give Porter Jr. a substantial raise and considering the Pelicans can contend soon, Porter Jr. may be interested.
Malik Monk, Expected Salary: 8-10 million
Monk has improved as a defender and is a serious 3-level scorer who averaged 13.8 points per game with a TS% of 57.9, an eFG% of 57.8, and a 3PT% of 39.1 this season.
The Lakers remain unlikely to re-sign Monk considering they only have a 6.3 million taxpayer MLE while the Pelicans have a 10 million non-taxpayer MLE. Monk would fit in perfectly as a bucket getter for the Pelicans and would only improve their already stellar offense.
If the Pelicans want to prioritize their defense in the free agency period, Monk isn’t the answer, but man would they have a fun offense with his addition.
Chris Boucher, Expected Salary: 5-10 million
Boucher is a 6-10 forward/center that is a good shot blocker with an improving offensive game. Based on how Boucher was implemented this season for the Raptors, they may believe he is expendable and that they don’t need him with Khem Birch and Precious Achiuwa able to play the 4 and 5 alongside Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes. This is where the Pelicans can slide in and offer Boucher above market value.
Although Boucher had an amazing 2020-2021 campaign averaging 2 blocks, 14 points, and almost 7 rebounds per game with a 3PT% of 38.3, a TS% of 63.4, and an eFG% of 59.5, he struggled to get going this season only averaging 9 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 block per game with an abysmal 3PT% of 29.7, a TS% of 57, and eFG% of 52.3.
Boucher played well in the playoff series against the 76ers and will undoubtedly improve in the 2022-2023 NBA campaign. Boucher could be a steal for 5-10 million and would fit in perfectly alongside Valancuinas and Williamson down low.
Tyus Jones, Expected Salary: 8-12 million
Jones will be hard to sign considering the Grizzlies have the most cap space entering this free agency period and have witnessed Jones become a star in the second unit.
Jones finished the 2021-2022 NBA season with the highest assist-turnover ratio in the history of the game and is one of the best playmakers in the NBA. I doubt Memphis lets him go, but the Pelicans should jump on the opportunity to sign the Point Guard if Memphis lets Jones walk.
Taurean Prince, Expected Salary: 5-10 million
Prince made over 12.6 million dollars this past season to be the 8th guy off the bench for the Timberwolves and I don’t see them re-signing him even for a discounted price despite his production.
Prince is a good two-way player who is a legitimate threat from 3PT range (37.6% this season for the Wolves) and is highly efficient from the field (56.4 eFG%, 58.9 TS%). The Pelicans could use another shooter and above-average defender on the roster and they can probably sign Prince for relatively cheap (5-8 million dollars).
Kyle Anderson, Expected Salary: 5-10 million
Like Jones, I doubt Memphis lets Anderson walk, but if they do, Anderson is a great playmaker who can defend multiple positions. Anderson averaged 7.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game with a 3PT% of 33, and an eFG% of 48.4, and he isn’t the most dominant 3 and D guy.
However, his ability to get guys open shots, offensively rebound, and make smart basketball plays sets him apart despite his 3-point shooting struggles. The Pelicans could look to give Anderson a 1 year $10,264,000 that could benefit both sides.
Anderson could improve his 3-point shooting and expand his market as an unrestricted free agent the following season and the Pelicans get a versatile wing who can give them 25+ minutes per game.
Derrick Jones Jr., Expected Salary: 5-10 million
Jones Jr. is extremely athletic and is improving at the defensive end. The only issue is he is supremely overpaid (9.5 million last season) and may demand a similar contract despite the market not being there for him. Jones Jr. didn’t play much for the Bulls this year averaging 17.6 minutes per game.
He wasn’t impressive in those minutes putting up 5.6 points, and 3.3 rebounds with a TS% of 63.3 and an eFG% of 59 on less than 4 field goal attempts per game. This is a guy the Pelicans can probably get for a minimum contract as well as I don’t think Jones Jr. has proven enough to demand 5-10 million a year which is why a minimum contract could suffice.
Delon Wright, Expected Salary: 5-12 million
Wright is a two-way guard who has triple-double-type tendencies. He is an elite playmaker, can defend both guard positions, and would provide a stable addition off the bench to lead the offense.
Wright averaged 8.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.2 steals per game with a TS% of 62.2 and an eFG% of 53.5 in 18.9 minutes per game last season for the Atlanta Hawks. Wright wasn’t given enough minutes to make a substantial difference this year, but if he becomes the 7th or 8th man for the Pelicans, he will become a game-changer off of the bench.
Thaddeus Young, Expected Salary: Minimum-10 million
Young has consistently shown that he plays elite defense, can play multiple positions, and does all the little things right (like running for loose balls, making the extra pass, hustling to get back on defense) which is exactly the identity the Pelicans want to establish with guys like Alvarado and Jones. They want hard-nosed players who do every little thing well and Young definitely checks those boxes.
Young’s only downside is that he is almost 34 years old, but he is a veteran that players can learn under as well. It is always a positive to get a veteran presence in the locker room and Young would provide that.
Young only played 16.3 minutes per game on a good Raptors team but averaged 6.3 points and 1 steal per game with an eFG% of 55, all while being able to defend multiple positions. He would be a great addition for the Pelicans and they can get him for probably less than 10 million dollars.
Options through trade:
Option 1: Larry Nance Jr., Devonte’ Graham, and a 2024 first-round pick (Via Bucks) for Terry Rozier
As I mentioned above, Rozier is a gifted scorer that would add to this amazing offense in every way possible. Although he is a streaky shooter, Rozier has the ability to change the game with his 50-point bursts and above-average playmaking abilities. The Hornets will make major changes this offseason and they want to get rid of some of their bad long-term contracts like Terry Rozier and will have to take on some bad one-two year deals such as Nance Jr. and Graham.
They will likely get a first-round pick for Rozier as well by taking on some of the other team’s bad contracts. The Pelicans could see Rozier as a 1-year rental until the Williamson extension kicks in to immediately bolster their title chances next season. The only downside is that they will have to move on from either McCollum or Rozier to stay under the cap for the 2023 season and will have to find a trade partner since Rozier will be entering his 4-year 96 million dollar contract extension next season.
Option 2: Larry Nance Jr, Devonte’ Graham, and a 2024 first-round pick (Via Bucks) for Malcolm Brogdon
It’s no secret that the Pacers want to move on from Brogdon’s long-term contract that has 3 years and over 68 million dollars left on it and fully rebuild. Many sources believe that the Pacers want an expiring contract Malcolm Brogdon or Buddy Hield, even though the Pelicans will definitely not trade for both of them.
With this trade, the Pacers get rid of Brogdon’s long-term contract and get back a young and relatively inexpensive guard in Graham, an expiring contract in Nance Jr., and a first-round pick in 2024 to accelerate the rebuild around Tyrese Haliburton. Brogdon and Hield have been linked to the Lakers for Westbrook, Talen Horton-Tucker, and a first-round pick and only the Lakers would take on two massive contracts to get rid of one.
This is where it gets interesting as the Pacers will have more than one suitor for Brogdon, but they also want to ship Hield, and paring them together may be the best long-term solution, even for a ball-dominant heavy guard like Westbrook.
Nonetheless, this seems like a win-win for both sides as Brogdon is an elite playmaker who can get to the rim with ease and also plays defense. The same goes for Brogdon that will go for all of the big-time players the Pelicans will try to acquire: Zion Williamson will get an extension and when that kicks in in 2023-2024 they will have to make salary cap room for that so all of these trades explore a possible 1-2 year rental unless the Pels want to move on from C.J. McCollum after 2 years.
Option 3: Larry Nance Jr., Garrett Temple, Kira Lewis Jr., and two future second-round picks for Myles Turner and T.J. McConnell
Again with the Pacers, I know. This is the only team in premier selling mode though if you think about it. Turner is a gifted shot-blocker who has developed a nice offensive game and McConnell is an elite two-way guard who would fit in perfectly alongside Alvarado and McCollum in the backcourt.
The Pacers are only going to take on both Nance Jr. and Graham if they can get rid of a 3-4 year deal such as Brogdon’s contract so with Graham being on contract for 3 more seasons, I don’t see Indiana wanting him in a deal centered around Myles Turner.
Kira Lewis Jr. is still young and has potential on both ends of the floor and the two second-round picks would be a nice consolation prize to get rid of the Turner and McConnell contracts.
Option 4: Larry Nance Jr., Garrett Temple, 2024 first-round pick (Pelicans own) for Jerami Grant
Grant is a gifted scorer whose production is getting overlooked since he plays in Detroit. The Pistons will likely want just Cade Cunningham running the show next season and for no one to stand in his way. As of right now, Jerami Grant does and his contract doesn’t allow for the Pistons to fully rebuild even after they select in the top-3 for the second year in a row.
In this trade, the Pelicans get a nice offensive complement to McCollum, Ingram, and Williamson and a contract that expires after next season (Grant will make $20,955,000 next season and it will not affect the Pelican’s cap because of the trade exception.
This deal makes sense as the Pelicans can feel safe extending Williamson without it backfiring (them having to look for a trade partner next summer if they obtain a larger contract like Rozier or Brogdon) while also getting a player that can help them contend next season.
The Pistons get two not so great contracts in Larry Nance Jr.‘s over 9 million dollars expiring contract and Garrett Temple’s remaining 2 years 11 million dollar deal, but they also get back a first-round pick in the trade that will likely be a lower first-round pick considering the Pelicans’ outlook in the 2023-2024 season.
The Pistons desperately need younger, more talented players and even taking on two bad contracts of veteran players isn’t that bad to get a first-rounder of any caliber. They gotta pay 14 guys anyways and even though both Nance Jr. and Temple are overpaid, they aren’t that expensive in comparison to Jerami Grant and other guys on the roster.