MLB Power Rankings at the All-Star Break. Where do teams stack up against each other going into the second half of the season?
We know that if a team is at least .500 at the break, that they have a chance at competing
Crazy to realize that the MLB All-Star break is already here and that more than half of the season is already complete. We have seen the usual juggernauts like the Dodgers and Padres play as expected, but we have also seen unexpected World Series contenders come out of nowhere like the San Francisco Giants, the Tampa Bay Rays, the Houston Astros, and the Boston Red Sox.
In one of the most competitive starts to the season baseball fans have ever seen, the National League West has 3 teams over 53 wins at the break and all three of them could win the World Series. The Giants have the lowest team ERA in the bigs, while the Padres and Dodgers use their superstar rosters to manhandle teams with less talent.
Jacob Degrom has an ERA just over 1.00 entering the All-Star break and is on pace to have one of the best ERA’s for a starting pitcher in a season. He has established himself as the clear best pitcher in the MLB right now creating a huge gap between 1 and whoever is #2 at the moment.
Even though Mike Trout has been hurt most of the year and the Los Angeles Angels aren’t going to the playoffs again for the 7th straight season, Shohei Ohtani is the AL MVP at the break and has given us one of the most impressive seasons in the history of the game of baseball. His 33 Home Runs lead the league by a lot and his pitching has been fantastic as well. He participated in the Home Run Derby two nights ago and started and got the win on the mound in the All-Star game last night. Ohtani has become the face of baseball and has viewership rising again to almost all-time highs.
Fernando Tatis has established himself this season as not only one of the biggest Superstars in the MLB, but also one of the most exciting players we have ever seen. He is the NL MVP at the break and has the Padres within striking distance of both the Dodgers and the Giants at the break.
Vladamir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays is finally living up to his Superstar ceiling we all knew he was going to reach. It took him some time, struggling in his first two seasons for the Blue Jays, but in year 3 he is in the top 3 in Batting Average, Home Runs, and RBI’s and is Ohtani’s only real competition in the AL MVP race.
Arizona Diamondbacks
I had high hopes for the Diamondbacks entering the season. High hopes meaning ranking 23rd-26th in the league, not 30th! Realistically, Bumgarner, Gallen, and Eduardo Escobar are a better core than what the Orioles, Tigers, or Pirates have! Yet all three of those other awful teams have better records and can actually win some games.
Yes, there is an argument that the Diamondbacks have the worst record in the bigs due to them playing in the best division in baseball, but still, they should be better. The Diamondbacks are sure to move all of their key pieces for prospects at the deadline as this year proves that the only way to compete with the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants(who are all getting better) is to blow up the team and rebuild around prospects.
Corbin Caroll was a great start and drafting Jordan Lawlar with the 6th overall pick in this year’s draft could end up being one of the best picks of the draft. However, they will need many more top prospects to come up and become MLB Superstars for them to compete with the big three of the future in the stacked NL West.
Baltimore Orioles
Cedric Mullins is fantastic this season and has given Orioles fans a season to remember as he has been selected to his first All-Star game. He is hitting .314 with 16 home runs and 16 stolen bases at the break. Trey Mancini is back after battling cancer and is having another stellar season as he has 16 home runs and 55 RBI’s at the break. Other than those two guys though, the Orioles haven’t really had other positives. John Means is a great pitcher when he’s healthy, but has been battling injuries most of the season.
Their team ERA is hovering around 5.50 which is the worst in the MLB, even worse than the Diamondbacks. Their team batting average actually ranks 14th in the league, mostly due to Mullins’ big year and other key contributors helping score a lot of runs. Unfortuantley, the runs they do score cannot outweigh having the worst team ERA in the league. Maybe Adley Rutschman will come up this year and give Orioles fans some more hope? Because the continued misery of the Chris Davis contract certainly is not.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tyler Anderson, Bryan Reynolds, Adam Fraizer, and Ke’Bryan Hayes have been positives for this rebuilding Pirates team. Anderson owns a 4.35 ERA with 5 wins on the year, Reynolds is hitting .302 with 16 home runs, Fraizer already has 115 hits at the break and owns a .330 batting average, and Hayes is the star of the future and has shown that when healthy this season.
This team is in complete rebuilding mode and not being the worst team in the league this year is actually a positive, considering many of their prospects are far from being called up to the bigs. Improving their farm system at the deadline seems likely as Adam Fraizer, Tyler Anderson, and Bryan Reynolds could really help a contending team compete for a World Series. Trading those guys could really accelerate the rebuild.
Texas Rangers
Kyle Gibson was an average rotation guy most of his career, but in 2021 he has turned into a front-of-rotation guy boasting a 6-1 record with a 2.29 ERA over 100 innings entering the break. Gibson was selected to his first All-Star game because of his fantastic season. Both Joey Gallo and Adolis Garcia also made the All-Star team with 24(Gallo) and 22(Garcia) home runs at the break. Garcia has 62 RBI’s while Gallo has 52 RBI’s at the break. Joey Gallo’s .241 batting average is misleading because his OBP is.402. Isn’t that insane?
Gallo walks more than anyone in the league as his 72 walks at the break are the most by far. This team has accelerated its rebuild a little bit as Adolis Garcia and Nate Lowe have been better than expected to go along with Joey Gallo living up to his potential. However, since Kyle Gibson’s trade value is at an all-time high and the Rangers are not competing anytime soon, they should trade Gibson to a team trying to contend this season. They should hold onto Gallo and Garcia who look to be key pieces in their future success. The Rangers seem to be heading in the right direction after selecting Jack Leiter with the 2nd overall pick in this year’s MLB draft. Leiter will be a front of the rotation guy at the MLB level and until then, the Rangers should continue to stock up on prospects for the future.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals have been as good as many people expected them to be. A rebuilding team that ins’t good but also isn’t completely terrible. The Tigers will fall to last place and the Twins will rise to third place in the division leaving the Royals in fourth place this season. The Royals are in complete rebuilding mode and no one expected them to be almost as good as the reigning division champ Twins, but here we are.
Bobby Witt Jr. looks fantastic in the minors and will definitely be called up next season, which should give Royals fans some hope. Salvador Perez has put together another All-Star season already hitting 21 home runs at the break with an average of just under .280. Andrew Benintendi is hitting just under .280 at the break and has been almost as good and consistent as they have hoped from him.
The farm system continues to sport top prospects, even if former top prospect Brady Singer hasn’t lived up to the hype just yet. Danny Duffy seems like a prime candidate to be traded as he is sporting a sub 2.55 ERA at the break and has been one of the bright spots on this Kansas City pitching staff. The Royals need to sell whoever they can for prospects at the deadline because their rebuild is almost complete, but they are not competing this year so there is no point in keeping Danny Duffy and other veteran players.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have been as good as I expected. People thought they’d be the worst team in the league after the Nolan Arenado trade in the offseason, but I predicted that they would only be one of the 5 or 6 worst teams, not the absolute worst since they play half their games at Coors Field and have Trevor Story in their lineup still(who hasn’t even been good yet).
Since Story hasn’t been living up to his top-tier SS level production, the Rockies may actually hold onto Story at the trade deadline because his trade value is down. The Rockies have surp[risngly had some good starting pitching this season, even at Coors field, with German Marquez making the All-Star team with an 8-6 record, 114 K’s, and only a 3.36 ERA this season. Jon Gray and Austin Gomber have also produced surprisingly good ERA’s even having pitched half their starts at Coors Field with a 3.68 and 3.94 ERA respectively.
Brendan Rodgers and Trevor Story need to pick up some of the slack on offense for this team to continuously get better and prevent becoming the worst team in the league. Luckily, they have fared better against the three juggernauts in their division than the Diamondbacks, and since the Rockies starting pitching has been surprisingly good, that should propel them to finishing fourth instead of fifth in the best division in baseball.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers were supposed to be one of the three worst teams in the league this year, but they are only 11 games under .500 entering the break because of their solid starting pitching. Spencer Turnbull, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matthew Boyd have all put together stellar seasons thus far and show no signs of slowing down either. Their lineup hasn’t been great, but Jonathan Schoop’s .277 batting average with 16 homers and 52 RBI’s has been a bright spot in a very weak lineup.
Robbie Grossman is also picking up some of the slack on offense, but their wins are coming from pitching. The Tigers also have four relievers with an under 3.05 or under ERA and over 26 innings pitched each. This team has hit its ceiling for the year, but they are playing way better than they are supposed to be playing and their rebuild all of a sudden is on track to be complete sooner than expected, especially when Spencer Torkelson comes up from the minors. However, they have also lost a ton of games recently and if their pitching staff can’t hold on in big games, the Tigers are heading for last place in their division.
23. Minnesota Twins
A team I originally predicted to be a top ten team has severely disappointed everyone. After high hopes last season ending in a divisional-round loss, the Twins saw Byron Buxton turn into a Superstar overnight, something they had always hoped from him when they drafted him 2nd overall just under a decade ago in the 2012 MLB Draft. He has been hurt much of the year, where his importance to his team has shown in their miserable start to the year. The Twins only have 39 wins at the break and are nowhere near where they are supposed to be or where they would have wanted to be at this point, which means they should sell.
Max Kepler is hitting .222 with only 10 homers in almost 200 at-bats while Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver are underperforming as well. Nelson Cruz, the Twins’ lone All-Star continues to produce like he does every year with a .300+ average and 18 home runs already at the break.
The Jose Berrios project has come to fruition as he has never turned into the elite pitcher they had hoped he’d become. Berrios is pitching dominant as of late and owns a 3.48 ERA with 114 K’s at the break, but he has always had the stuff to become a sub 2.50 ERA guy and win the Cy Young award. Maybe a change of scenery will help Berrios turn into the pitcher that he has the potential to become.
He has one of the best changeups in the MLB and his fastball has some of the best movement in the MLB. Berrios has a tendency to give up a lot of home runs, which can be fixed by a better pitching coach. They need to trade Jose Berrios and Kenta Maeda(who finished 2nd in Cy Young voting last season but has a 4.66 ERA this year) for prospects to accelerate a fast rebuild. This team is not going to compete this season, even if they somehow go on a big-time win streak.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins sport a +17. run differential at the All-Star break, but are still in last place since run differential does not translate directly to wins. They are only 9 games out of first place so maybe their luck will turn a corner and they could make a run at the worst division possibly in baseball this year. Think about that, what was once deemed the best division in baseball has become the worst division in baseball. Jazz Chisholm Jr has been the sparkplug of the lineup as he has 11 home runs and has stolen 11 bags with an average of just under .260 at the break. Jesus Aguilar and Adam Duvall have provided some power as well, but it has been the pitching that has kept the Marlins head above water.
Trevor Rogers is a legitimate ace as he is sporting a 2.31 ERA with 7 wins and 122 strikeouts at the break. Sandy Aclacantra and Pablo Lopez aren’t far behind both sporting an ERA of about 3.00 with over 100 strikeouts each. Rodgers, Alcantara, and Lopez all have pitched 100+ innings and the next pitcher in innings is reliever Dylan Floro with 36.2 innings pitched. The loss of Sixto Sanchez was heartbreaking as he showed last year that he can be a perennial All-Star pitcher. He will come back next year to add another elite arm to an elite rotation. I’m buying that the Marlins will be good sooner rather than later. They are a good organization with fantastic player development.
Washington Nationals
Kyle Schwarber has almost singlehandedly kept this team afloat in the division as he has 25 home runs at the break. Juan Soto is not hitting well this year by Juan Soto standards with a .283 batting average and only 11 home runs at the break. At least Trea Turner is having a great year to go along with Schwarber as he has hit 17 home runs with a .317 batting average so far this season. Other than those two guys, the rest of the lineup has been shaky and the pitching staff besides Max Scherzer has been awful this year.
They sit at 42-47 at the break and show no signs of coming back and winning the division. However, no one is really pulling away with the division right now, and if Schwarber and Turner can keep hitting, their pitching staff starts to get healthy and pitch consistently, and Juan Soto starts to heat up at some point, they just maybe have a lot to win the NL East. However, I don’t think this is Washington’s year.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves were supposed to be amazing as they won the division last season and were only 1 win away from the World Series. Yes, there is something about Atlanta teams blowing big leads as the Braves were up 3-1 on the Dodgers and blew it just like the Falcons did in 2017 when they were up 28-3 and lost to Tom Brady and the Patriots. Ronald Acuña Jr., the team’s best player tore his ACL and is out for the season, and Mike Soroka, one of the team’s star pitchers re-injured his Achillies and won’t be back this season either. Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta’s #4 hitter and a guy who always hits 35+ homers, is also out for the year for domestic violence. All of the injuries combined will result in the Braves not making the playoffs.
Freddie Freeman is playing great per usual with 19 home runs, 50 RBI’s, and a .381 OBP. I know this doesn’t seem like the MVP type statistics like Freeman had last year, but for having a miserable start hitting in the 1’s to get to this point at the break, Freeman’s second half seems very promising as he will have to take much of the load in the lineup. However, even with Freeman playing well, it still seems like nothing can go right for this team this season. They were the team many expected to challenge the Mets for the division title, but now it is the Mets division to lose. The only thing standing in the way of the Mets is the Mets! Let’s see what happens, but this Braves team will be lucky to be .500 at year’s end without Acuña Jr. and Mike Soroka.
St. Louis Cardinals
Another team that was expected to win their division, the Cardinals have been missing Jack Flaherty tremendously since he got hurt at the beginning of the year. Their pitching staff ranks 16th which is okay, but not enough to win the division. If they had Jack Flaherty they would be ranked at least 12th or 13th because he is their ace. Adam Wainwright and Giovanny Gallegos have sub 3 ERA’s and Kwang Hyun Kim is not too far above that mark with a 3.11 ERA. Alex Reyes has also been fantastic with a 1.83 ERA in 40+ innings at the break.
However, even without Flaherty, this team should not be 2 games under .500 at the break. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt have both underperformed both only hitting .265 at the break. Arenado has hit for more power with 17 homers to Goldschmidt’s 13, but they both need to be better to make the postseason. Paul Dejong is hitting under .200 while Tommy Edman, Harison Bader, and Dylan Carlson are all hitting under .260. Tyler O’Neil is one of the only bright spots in this lineup mashing 15 home runs this season while hitting .275 at the break. This team will not win the division if Flaherty can’t come back healthy and Arenado and Goldschmidt both don’t start playing to their potential. Simple as that.
Chicago Cubs
Another team that is all of a sudden lackluster are the Cubs. Once the division leaders only one month ago, the Cubs have been losing almost every game it seems like. They have lost 13 out of their last 15 games and are plummeting down the division standings. Their pitching had been a bright spot up until late June, but everything has fallen apart for this team. Kyle Hendricks ERA has risen to 3.77, Zach Davies’ to 4.37, Adbert Alzolay’s to 4.66, and Jake Arrieta’s to 6.30.
The Cubs once had a top 3 pitching staff in the MLB only one month ago, but now have a. very sloppy one as this whole team has fallen off of a cliff. Their lineup, heralded by Kris Bryant’s 21 home runs, cannot withstand terrible pitching. Javy Baez has one of the worst strikeout to walk ratios in the league, and Anthony Rizzo is only hitting .247 with 10 home runs at the break. The Cubs now have multiple weak spots in their pitching staff, their bullpen(even though Kimbrel has been fantastic with a 0.57 ERA), and their lineup. This is not good as better teams will continue to take advantage of the Cubs’ weak spots and dominate them. The Cubs are heading downhill the rest of the year, not uphill.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are very similar to the Angels, except that they have good starting pitching. Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Elfin have been great, but their bullpen has been terrible and their bottom two of the rotation starters have awful as well. Even in the midst of hovering around .500, so is every other team in their division just about so the Phillies need to buy, just like the Angels, at the deadline.
Their lineup has been worse than expected with Byrce Harper only hitting around .278 with 15 home runs and J.T. Realmuto only hitting around .260 with 8 home runs heading into the break. Bryce Harper is still a great player with a .891 OPS, but it is evident that Harper’s power numbers have been down compared to the old Harper. For this Phillies team to make the postseason, they need MVP Harper, not just All-Star Harper since the rest of the lineup is struggling to produce. Rhys Hoskins leads the team in home runs with 20, but is only hitting .235 and is striking out at a very high rate.
Jean Segura is the only player on the team hitting very well with a .322 batting average at the break. Obviously, they need better offensive production from their 3 stars Harper, Realmuto, and Hoskins, and that will win them more games. However, the thing they need at the deadline is back of the rotation pitching and bullpen help. I am sure the Phillies are betting on Harper, Hoskins, and Realmuto to hit better, so if they want to win this division which is very possible, they need to get more pitching. Plain and simple.
Los Angeles Angels
Shohei Ohtani leads the MLB in home runs and is top 3 in OPS+ and RBI’s. Mike Trout has been injured most of the season and the Angels are still only 1 game over .500 at the break. Anthony Rendon is playing miserable for someone making 30+ million dollars a year. His lackluster 2021 campaign reminds me of Francisco Lindors’ lackluster campaign for the Mets this season. Imagine how much better Shohei Ohtani would be if Anthony Rendon started hitting and Mike Trout came back healthy and fantastic? He would get even more pitches to hit, as pitchers have continuously walked him over the past few weeks.
Jared Walsh, a 38th round pick, is showing the MLB how diamonds in the rough are included in the 40 round draft process and on the minor league teams that the league is starting to cut. This is a whole separate issue, but Jared Walsh is one of the reasons the MLB should not just care about first-rounders and bonus babies. They should not try to save money by cutting teams with possible Jared Walsh’s in the minor leagues and they should give more rights and money to hard-working minor leaguers who are trying to make their big league dreams a reality.
The Angels, yet again need pitching to compete. How is it that they have the two best players in the whole world and can never make it to the playoffs? Their offense is top 5 in every statistical category even without Mike Trout and with Rendon hitting terribly. It is because the Angels never prioritize pitching and it costs them big time. I can’t remember the last time the Angels had a good pitching staff. Only Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, and Alex Cobb have been somewhat decent enough to win games, and the bullpen is one of the worst in the league as well. Only Rasiel Iglesias and Steve Chisek have been somewhat decent in the pen, and it seems as if every game is a shootout that the Angels need to win.
Regardless of the Astros and Athletics not only being much better teams and also both being 8+ games ahead of the Angels entering the break, the Angels NEED TO BUY at the deadline. A 5.5 game wild-card and 9 game division deficit is definitely not ideal, but also not impossible to overcome. Again, once Trout is healthy and Rendon starts hitting, this team will easily have a top 3 offense and will just need pitching. Pitching is the key for deadline acquisitions. Some names to keep in mind that may be good fits for the Angels are Danny Duffy of the Royals, John Means of the Orioles, Sonny Gray of the Reds, and Tyler Anderson of the Pirates. They will almost certainly have to boost their bullpen at the deadline as well and to get starting pitching and relief pitching at the deadline, the Angles may have to part ways with some key pieces of the future including Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell, David Fletcher, Taylor Ward, Griffin Canning, Reid Detmers…etc.
Cleveland Indians
Shane Bieber probably deserves to start the All-Star game tonight as he owns a 3.30 ERA with over 130 K’s at the All-Star break. Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, and Triston McKensie have all been fantastic recently as this team wins its game on its pitching not it’s hitting. Jose Ramirez leads the team in batting average with .260, and the lineup in conclusion really is one of the worst in the league.
Ceaser Hernandez is providing some power to go along with Ramirez with 15 homers at the break, but this Indians lineup being good is a thing of the past. The bullpen is fantastic as well with James Karnichak and Emmanuel Clase dominating teams in the 8th and 9th innings of games as long as the Indians have a lead. The Indians look to finish second in the AL Central and I do not believe that they will make the playoffs because their lineup is so bad.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners seem to find ways to win games, especially against the Angels. They sit in 3rd place in a stacked AL West at the break with a 48-43 record. Their pitching has been amazing as Yusei Kikuchi owns a 3.48 ERA with 98 K’s and made his first All-Star team. Chris Flexen owns a 3.51 ERA as he has been dominant recently, while Logan Gilbert dominated the Yankees in his last outing with 7 innings, 10 K’s, and 0 walks and looks to be the ace of the future.
Justin Dunn has an ERA in the 3’s as well and Drew Streckenrider and Kendall Graveman both own almost sub 2 ERAs and have provided a great back end of the bullpen. The Mariners lineup is heralded by Mitch Haniger and his 20 homers and 52 RBI’s at the break. Other than Haniger, J.P. Crawford has 94 hits at the All-Star break, but no one else in the lineup can hit. This lineup is very weak and to make a playoff push will need to rely on its consistently solid pitching staff. If Logan Gilbert continues to dominate, they could sneak into the postseason but I still don’t know if the Mariners are even better than the Angels.
Cincinnati Reds
Jesse Winker, Nicolas Castellanos, and Jonathan India have all been fantastic in one of the best lineups in baseball. The Reds hit a lot of home runs, but their starting pitching needs to get better. Wade Miley has a 2.80 ERA at the break and Sonny Gray has an ERA in the low 3’s, but Luis Castillo has close to a 5 ERA, and even though Trevor Mahle has a 3.68 ERA, #5 starter Jeff Hoffman is not that far behind the 5 ERA mark as well. TeeJay Antone has an ERA under 2 in just over 33 innings pitched.
If Antone continues pitching at this rate, the Reds could get the best of both worlds and accelerate their farm system by trading Sonny Gray for prospects and trusting Antone to pick up the slack and make quality starts in the rotation, even though he is primarily a relief pitcher. Either way, the Reds have shown why they are the second-best team in the NL Central. Their lineup seems unstoppable at this point and it all just comes down to their pitching.
New York Yankees
The Yankees have had a very average year for the Yankees, and it’s all due to their miserable starting pitching. Gerrit Cole owns a 2.68 ERA with 147 K’s and Corey Kluber has a 3.04 ERA, but after these two guys, the rotation isn’t good at all. Jameson Taillon has a 4.90 ERA, Domingo German has a 4.44 ERA, and Michael King has a 3.72 ERA. The bullpen has been good with Jonathan Loaisiga, Aroldis Chapman, and Chad Green at the helm, but it really is their starting pitching that needs work. Their lineup was supposed to be one of the best in the league but has struggled to get going all season.
Former batting champ D.J .LeMahieu is only hitting .270 with 7 home runs, Gleyber Torres is only hitting .240 with 3 home runs, and Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez each have 15 home runs but also own .270 or lower batting averages. Aaron Judge has 21 homers and 47 RBI’s at the break, but even he is only hitting .282 and leads the team. This Yankees team that was supposed to win the AL East looks significantly worse than the Red Sox team that is winning the division. If the Yankees lineup gets going and Taillon and German can pitch better then the sky is the limit for this team. However, this hasn’t happened all year so who knows if this team can come together. They have their work cut out for them.
Toronto Blue Jays
Owning one of the best run differentials in the MLB, the Toronto Blue Jays now have one of the scariest lineups in the league since Geroge Springer has gotten going. Vladamir Guerrero Jr. is putting on an MVP campaign, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio keep hitting as well, and Tesocar Hernandez and Marcus Semien are hitting really well too. The pitching has been sub-par and that will be the indicator of whether they can make the playoffs or not. Robbie Ray and Hyun-Jin are pitching very well and should continue to impress the rest of the season while Ross Stripling and Trent Thronton haven’t been good at all this year.
The Blue Jays were expecting Nate Pearson to step up this year, but his miserable performances at the big league level have him back down in Triple-A. The Blue Jays are definitely going to be buyers at the deadline as getting an arm or two would severely help. However, with the Angels, Yankees, and Mariners staying close behind the Blue Jays, who are still behind the Rays and the Athletics, for a wild card spot, it will be a hard-fought fight until the end and nothing is certain.
New York Mets
Francisco Lindor is having possibly the worst season ever for someone who is supposed to be in his prime and on a 350+ million dollar contract. He is only hitting .227 with 11 homers at the break, which will not do if the Mets want to do something in the playoffs.
Their stellar pitching may be enough to get them into the postseason with All-Stars Jacob Degrom and Tajuan Walker leading the way, but Lindor needs to start playing up to his paycheck or at least somewhat close to the player he is supposed to be, otherwise, the Mets will have a tough time winning a playoff series.
Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, and Michael Conforto are all starting to hit better, and Lindor needs to follow in their footsteps and get hot, otherwise, the Mets will have to win games 1-0 or 2-0 for the rest of the season. However, maybe Alonso’s legendary performance at the home run derby last night will propel him to a big power surge in the second half. The Mets certainly need it.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are coasting in the NL Central right now with a 4 game lead behind their elite pitching staff. Brandon Woodruff should have been the National League starter at the All-Star Game with his 2.06 ERA and 129 K’s at the break. Corbin Burnes is not that far behind with his 2.36 ERA and 128 K’s in only 87.2 innings pitched. Freddy Peralta has had a great year as well sporting a 2.39 ERA with 135 K’s at the break, and Adrian Houser has been great as well with a 3.74 ERA in over 86 innings pitched. The bullpen has been fantastic as well led by Josh Hader and his 1.49 ERA and 63 K’s in 36.1 innings pitched. Devin Williams has also been great with a 2.97 ERA and 52 K’s in just over 33 innings pitched.
Brad Boxberger has been the missing piece to the puzzle in the later innings boasting a 2.87 ERA with 46 K’s in over 37 innings pitched at the break to produce a trio of Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Brad Boxberger that no one wants to face in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. Add their elite bullpen to their elite starting pitching and the Brewers just need to produce a couple of runs per game to win games. Hitting has been the only weakness of this ballclub as Avisail Garcia has the best batting average on the team with .256. He also leads the team in home runs(16) and RBI’s(55). Kolten Wong has been pretty good, but Christian Yelich is the guy everyone is worried about.
Once an NL MVP and perennial All-Star, Yelich has had a miserable year with only a .241 batting average and only 5 home runs, and 45 hits in 187 at-bats. If Yelich could somehow get back to playing at even an All-Star level, then the Brewers will have a serious shot to win the World Series. But if he continues to have a miserable season to go along with former All-Star Keston Hiura who is only hitting .168 this season, then the Brewers will be heavily reliant on solely pitching to win them games, and I don’t know how that will stack up against other elite pitching staffs with much better lineups like the Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Padres.
Oakland Athletics
Like I said in my preseason MLB power rankings article, the Oakland Athletics could field a Double-A roster out on the field and find a way into the postseason. Billy Beane’s “Moneyball” strategy is still working and thriving in the MLB. Sure, the A’s always have some really good pitching and a couple of solid hitters in their lineup, but their roster top-to-bottom talent-wise is one of the worst in the league. The Athletics have a way of making less talented guys thrive in their organization and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Matt Olson has had a fantastic year with a .282 batting average, 23 homers, and 59 RBI’s at the All-Star break and even though the rest of the lineup isn’t close to Olson’s production, they are doing enough to hit home runs and produce runs to win the team some games.
The pitching staff has been pretty good with Sean Manaea owning a 3.19 ERA with 108 K’s at the break, Chris Bassitt owning a 3.28 ERA with 118 K’s at the break, and James Kaprielian has come up to the big leagues and dominated boasting a 2.90 ERA with 66 K’s in just over 60 innings pitched. Cole Irvin has been great as well with a 3.65 ERA and 6 wins at the break, while the relief pitching has been sloppy with Lou Trivino being the only really elite guy out of the bullpen with a 1.84 ERA and 14 saves at the break.
Jake Diekman, Jesus Luzardo, and Sergio Romo need to better out of the pen in the second half of the season for the A’s to catch the Astros. With Olson being the only elite hitter in the lineup, I do not think it’s possible, even with a top-tier rotation, to catch the Astros who have one of the most balanced teams in the league and are much more talented than the A’s.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays lost Blake Snell via trade in the offseason and haven’t had Ace Tyler Glasnow for weeks now due to injury, and are still finding ways to win somehow. Their pitching staff has been pretty good, but not what it used to be. Rich Hill has the lowest ERA for starters on the team with a 3.74. That’s pretty bad for your best pitcher, but regardless, the Rays continue to find ways to win games. Their relief pitching is elite per usual, and if they have a lead entering the 7th inning, the Rays have a good shot at winning the game. Andrew Kittredge owns a 1.47 ERA in 43 innings pitched, Collin McHugh owns a 1.67 ERA in just over 37 innings pitched(although he is transitioning into a starter as of late), and Diego Castillo and Peter Fairbanks have been fantastic as well.
The Rays lineup is really lackluster with Manuel Margot’s .252 batting average leading the team. Let that sink in for a second. This is a team competing for the division with the highest batting average on their team being .252. That is insane. Even though they are not sporting good averages, both Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows are hitting a ton of homers (21 for Lowe and 16 for Meadows), and Mike Zunino has 19 home runs at the break as well, even though he is only hitting .198 this season.
Either way, the Rays look to be a team that should not compete this year, but even with their sloppy starting pitching and weak lineup, they are finding ways to win because they are one of the best organizations in baseball and I wouldn’t be surprised if they caught the Red Sox and won the division.
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are leading the AL East at the break and show no signs of slowing down. They have been leading the AL East since the beginning of the year and not many people expected this team to be any good. We all knew that Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogartes would be fantastic, but the pitching staff has really exceeded expectations as well. Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta have led the way as Eovaldi has a 3.66 ERA with 9 wins and 99 K’s and Pivetta has a 4.30 ERA with 7 wins and 113 K’s at the break. I know 4.30 isn’t fantastic for your #2 starter, but it is enough since the Red Sox lineup hasn’t been able to be kept in check all season long.
Xander Bogartes is hitting .321 with a .385 OBP, Rafael Devers has 22 home runs and 72 RBI’s, J.D. Martinez has 18 home runs with a .299 batting average, and Alex Verdugo, Hunter Renfroe, and Christian Vasquez have all provided some good numbers as well. The rest of the rotation after Eovaldi and Pivetta, though, is sloppy at best with Martin Perez owning a 4.04 ERA and Eduardo Rodriguez owning a 5.52 ERA at the break. The bullpen has been elite with Garret Whitlock boasting a 1.44 ERA in 43.2 innings and Matt Barnes with 19 saves and a 2.61 ERA in over 38 innings pitched. Adam Ottavino, Hirokazu Sawamura, and Darwinzon Hernandez all have ERA’s in the 2’s at the break as well.
The scary thing about this Red Sox team is that Chris Sale isn’t even back yet and will be back pitching for this team very soon. If Sale comes back and. pitches like the usual ace he is, then the Red Sox have a serious shot at winning the World Series this year.
San Diego Padres
The Padres sit in 3rd place in the NL West at the break with 53 wins and 40 losses. They are 6 games back from the Giants and 5 games back from the Dodgers at the All-Star break. A 6 game deficit is not much and I expect this very talented Padres team to at least finish second in the division by year’s end. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the NL MVP at the break with 28 home runs, a .286 average, 67 runs scored, and 20 stolen bases. Tatis also owns a 4.6 WAR at the break, which is first in the National League for hitters. Both Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado are also hitting the lights out of the ball and have provided some good power numbers as well.
Yu Darvish has been the ace of the Padres this season as he owns a 3.09 ERA with 125 K’s and 7 wins at the break. Joe Musgrove has also been fantastic as he owns a 2.93 ERA with 116 K’s and 7 wins at the break as well. However, Blake Snell has a 5.00 ERA and has pitched horrendously this year. Blake Snell is supposed to be the ace of this staff and I do think he will pitch much better in the second half of the season. Chris Paddack also owns an ERA just south of 5.00, while Ryan Weathers has kept this rotation afloat with a 2.91 ERA in almost 60 innings pitched at the break. Dinelson Lamet, one of the best pitchers on the team has forearm inflammation for the second time this season, which has him still on the IL at the break. The pen has been good with Tim Hill, Emilio Pagan, and Mark Melancon leading the way. Just because I think that Snell and Paddack will pitch better and Tatis, Machado, and Cronenworth will keep it up in the lineup, I believe that the Padres will leapfrog the Giants and finish second in the NL West behind the Dodgers.
Chicago White Sox
The team I predicted to make it to the World Series is playing just as I expected them to at the break. Coasting with a 54-35 record and an 8 game division lead, the White Sox are poised to win the AL Central and make a deep run in the playoffs. Lance Lynn owns a 1.99 ERA with 9 wins at the break and is the White Sox’s ace this season. Lucas Giolito has been good, but not as good as one would expect. He owns a 4.15 ERA with 125 K’s at the break, but knowing Giolito’s consistency in recent years, he should be poised for a big-time second-half performance. Carlos Rodon is having a breakout year with a 2.31 ERA and 130 K’s at the break and Dylan Cease has been pretty good as well. The bullpen has been elite with Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet, and Liam Hendriks leading the way. No one wants the White Sox to be leading after 6 innings because they will have to face the trio of Crochet, Kopech, and Hendriks most likely.
Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson, and Yasmani Grandal have provided stability in a lineup that has been without Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez. Both Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez are making big strides in their progression, and many people believe Robert will return sometime at the beginning of August and Jimenez sometime by September, which will only further bolster this deadly lineup. Losing hit machine Nick Madrigal for the season was a tough blow, but having Robert and Jimenez back for a postseason run will be perfect for a team that may be the most balanced team in the league having elite pitching, relief pitching, and hitting.
San Francisco Giants
No one expected this team to be any good. Literally no one. They were supposed to be in rebuilding mode as top prospects Joey Bart, Marco Luciano, and Hunter Bishop are still all in the minor leagues with more development to go. Everyone knew Kevin Gausman was good and found his niche in San Francisco but no one expected him to be the second-best pitcher in the MLB to start the year behind Jacob Degrom.
Anthony DeScalfani wasn’t expected to be more than an innings eater who may win you some games but has bolstered a 9-3 record with around a 2.80 ERA entering the All-Star Break. Johnny Cueto started out great, and after battling with many injuries, is looking similar to how he looked when he was dominating early on in the year.
Buster Posey is the best catcher in the National League after taking last season off due to fear of contracting COVID-19, and Mike Yastremski has just started to get going. Tyler Rodgers and the bullpen have been dominant as well. The offense has not hit its stride yet, and if it ever does the Giants could become unbeatable. Farhan Zaidi has proven yet again he is a genius and has built a winner years before he was expected to, but they do seem to be losing some key games to the Dodgers and Padres recently which may only result in a Wild-Card game appearance. Either way, just making the playoffs will be a huge step in the right direction for this Giants organization.
Houston Astros
The Stros keep finding ways to win big games, even with Alex Bregman, arguably the team’s best hitter, missing a lot of time due to injury. They were expected to take a step back this year without Justin Verlander and George Springer, and uncertainty in their rotation. Instead, Jose Urquidy is pitching the best he has ever pitched, and the same with Framber Valdez who should have been an All-Star as his ERA is in the 2’s.
Their lineup has been lethal as always surrounded by stars Jose Altuve, Carlos Correra, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley, and Kyle Tucker in one of the best lineups in the league. The pen has been good too, and if the Astros keep it up, they could very well run away with the division. All they have to do is outpace the Athletics since the Angels and Mariners aren’t going anywhere.
Los Angeles Dodgers
After winning some key games against the Giants and Padres recently, the Dodgers have put themselves back on the forefront as the league’s best team, even if the Giants still barely have the division lead. Bauer wasn’t having a Cy Young type of year before the scandal arose, but he was consistently getting through 6 or 7 innings every time he pitched and the Dodgers are missing his consistency tremendously. Bauer may not pitch again the rest of the year as the MLB continues to investigate the incident. If this ends up being the case, the Dodgers need Tony Gonsolin to continue to step up and pitch great.
The Dodgers are missing Mookie Betts’ elite bat this year as he is only hitting .256 with 13 home runs at the break. Assuming Betts gets back to hitting like he was the previous couple of seasons, the Dodgers should be able to run away with the division at some point. Corey Seager is still hurt, and he was possibly the biggest factor in bringing home the World Series trophy last season. He seems to be coming back soon so that would add another Superstar into the lineup. Cody Bellinger is back and has instantly spark plugged this offense even without Betts hitting particularly well and Seager being hurt. Justin Turner and Max Muncy are also both having fantastic years.
Clayton Kershaw just went down with an injury but it doesn’t seem that serious and he should be able to pitch again very soon. If Kershaw can come back and continue to dominate with Walker Buehler at the front of the rotation, then the Dodgers should be able to reach the level many people have expected them to reach, even without Dustin May and Trevor Bauer.