March Madness Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Predictions Using Advanced Statistics
Which teams have the best chance to make the Final Four?
Advanced Statistics used in this article are from FoxSports.com, ESPN.com, and Warrennolan.com.
We are onto the second weekend of March Madness and even though your bracket, like mine, is already in shambles, sixteen talented teams still remain in their quest to hoist the 2022 NCAA D1 championship trophy.
There were some pretty big upsets during the first weekend that very few people predicted such as St. Peters beating Kentucky and then Murray State in route to a Sweet 16 appearance, New Mexico State beating UCONN, Richmond defeating Iowa, and Michigan using their tournament experience despite an up and down season to pick up upset wins against both Colorado State and Tennesee.
Although I picked some correct upsets like Richmond over Iowa, New Mexico State over UCONN, and Michigan over Colorado State, the biggest accomplishment of my 2022 March Madness bracket was correctly picking 8 seeded North Carolina to beat Baylor in the Round of 32 to face #4 seeded UCLA in the Sweet 16.
Almost no one I knew had that matchup and I was feeling my oats for sure as I was skeptical of Baylor’s upside and ability to go far in the tournament all year long and I was finally right.
Baylor lost, but the Big 12 is still thriving as the conference is tied for the most teams remaining with the ACC as Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas are all remaining for the Big 12, and Miami, North Carolina, and Duke are all remaining for the ACC.
The Pac 12, Big East, and Big 10 each have two remaining teams with Arizona and UCLA, Villanova and Providence, and Purdue and Michigan respectively. The SEC, WCC, MAAC, and AAC all have one team remaining as well in Arkansas, Gonzaga, St. Peters, and Houston.
The first weekend is always the most fun because of the many upsets, but this weekend proves to be the hardest to get through for teams aspiring to make the Final Four.
On Thursday and Friday, there will be some heavyweight battles such as UCLA vs. North Carolina, Michigan vs. Villanova, and Texas Tech Vs. Duke, but there will also be a couple of matchups no one expected such as 11 seeded Iowa State vs. 10 seeded Miami and 15 seeded Saint Peters vs. a very talented 3 seeded Purdue squad.
Another 10 or below seed will clinch a spot in the Elite 8 regardless due to the matchup between Iowa State and Miami, but Saint Peters and Michigan will also have a chance to make that happen as well. Either way, it will be a fun weekend full of competitive games that should go down to the wire.
If you are wondering how these games will affect your bracket and who will win this weekend to punch their ticket to the Final Four, I got you covered. I will use advanced statistics such as team offensive and defensive rating, turnover percentage, TS%, eFG%, PACE (pace of play), NET Rating while also using the generic strength of schedule and tournament statistics so far to make the selections.
I will pick all of the remaining matchups this weekend starting with the Sweet 16 and ending on the Elite 8 matchups which will subsequently occur on Saturday and Sunday. Here we go!
Thursday’s games:
West Region Semifinal 1: 4. Arkansas vs. 1. Gonzaga, 4:09 PM Pacific, CBS
People will be rooting for Arkansas to knock off the overall #1 seed Bulldogs but it simply will not happen. Yes, the Zags struggled in each of their first two games being down late in the second half in both of them, but they still rank 2nd in the nation in offensive rating (119.9) and 1st in defensive rating (89.2).
They own an impressive team eFG% of 59.4 and a TS% of 62.2, both of which rank 2nd in all of Division 1 as well. Their Net Rating of 30.7, and their PACE of 73.3 both rank 1st in Division 1 as well.
Yes, they play in the WCC and some of these numbers are pumped up because of that, but regardless of what conference they would play in, Gonzaga is the most balanced team in the nation.
What could be concerning for the Zags in this game and later on in the tournament if they move on is their TOV% (turnover percentage) of 14.3 which ranks in the middle of the pack of Division 1 teams and is only 3 percent behind the worst TOV% in the NCAA, Jacksonville State’s 17.3% rate.
The Razorback’s offensive rating of 104.9 ranks 110th in NCAA Division 1 and although they have a top 25 defensive rating of 94.4, it won’t be enough to defeat the Bulldogs and their high-powered offense.
Unless Gonzaga has an outlier of a game and misses all of their shots, and Arkansas’ offense actually does something, this will be a 10-20 point win for Gonzaga and they will cruise to the Elite 8.
Result: Gonzaga advances to Elite 8
South Region Semifinal 1: 11. Michigan Vs. 2. Villanova, 4:29 PM Pacific, TBS
This will be one heck of a matchup as Michigan has dominated through its first two games and Villanova is one of the most consistent teams on both ends of the floor in the country.
Michigan did not play well all season long finishing 17-14, but they have one of the best players in the country in Hunter Dickinson and still went to the Elite 8 last season.
They don’t have Franz Wagner or other impactful players from that 1 seeded Michigan team from last year, but this team is still able to use its talent to win some big games. Caleb Houston is blossoming at the right time, Dickinson continues to play great on both ends of the floor, and offensively this team owns a respectable offensive rating of 108.4 which ranks in the top 50 of in the nation.
On the other hand, Michigan owns a horrendous defensive rating of 102.9, which ranks 209th in NCAA Division 1 basketball. This will make Michigan susceptible to giving up too many points to win the game.
Villanova has one of the best offensive ratings in the country at 113.7, ranking 11th in NCAA Divison 1, and an impressive team eFG% of 52.2, and a team TS% of 56.9. What makes Villanova even more lethal is that they play enough defense to outscore other teams in almost every game.
Their defensive rating of 98.9 ranks in the top 70 of NCAA Division 1 teams (better than Michigan’s 211th ranking) and their TOV% (turnover percentage) of 13.5 ranks in the top 20 as well.
Villanova is also a very experienced team as Seniors Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels have played in many tournament games during their time at Nova including a Sweet 16 appearance last season and a national championship in 2018 when they were Freshman.
Villanova is just too consistent and can beat you in so many ways, expect them to win a close one as Michigan could catch them off guard with their streaky shooting early on.
Result: Villanova advances to Elite 8
West Region Semifinal 2: 3. Texas Tech vs. 2. Duke, 6:39 PM Pacific, CBS
A heavyweight battle with the best defense in the country in Texas Tech and one of the best offenses in the country in Duke., this game could be the best game all weekend. The Blue Devils definitely have more star power and are playing great basketball at the moment, but this could very well be a trap game for them.
Kevin Obanor is back to his Oral Roberts version of himself from last year’s tournament as he has been putting on a show alongside Terrance Shannon Jr. for the Red Raiders.
Duke is seeing Paolo Banchero doing what he has been doing for them all season long, creating open shots for his teammates, and dominating the mid-range and post-game as well.
Trevor Keels and Jeremy Roach have been shooting fantastic for the Blue Devils so far this tournament and Junior guard Wendell Moore is doing everything he can to solidify himself as a lottery pick in this year’s NBA Draft.
Texas Tech has a defensive rating of 88.1….yes you read that right, in the NBA the Celtics lead the league in defensive rating at 105.5. No one can put together a fantastic offensive game against such a dominant Texas Tech defense, but Duke could be the outlier considering they have so much talent.
The Blue Devils’ offensive rating of 117.7 ranks 5th in NCAA Division 1, and their team eFG% of 55.6 and TS% of 58.7 both rank in the top 20 as well. It’s not like Duke’s defense is bad either with a defensive rating of 98.7 (similar to Villanova’s) but it definitely gets overlooked because of their star power on offense.
Texas Tech doesn’t have as bad of an offense as people think either with a team eFG% of 52.7, a TS% of 55.7 and although their offensive rating has yet to be publically displayed (for some odd reason) we can make an educated guess that their offensive rating is just over 101 which isn’t great, but also not terrible either.
Furthermore, Duke is an extremely bad matchup for Texas Tech because of their high-powered offense and formidable defense as well. Texas Tech has a great defense but not an amazing offense. If I had to guess, Duke is going to pull this one out with Paolo Banchero and Wendell Moore putting on a show on offense and Mark Williams blocking 3 or 4 big shots on defense. Duke wins a nailbiter, although this one could go either way.
Result: Duke advances to Elite 8 in one of the best games of the tournament
South Region Semifinal 2: 5. Houston vs. 1. Arizona, 6:59 PM Pacific, TBS
The final game of Thursday’s slate is going to be a good one with two of the hottest teams in college basketball meeting each other in the Sweet 16. People who think that Arizona has this one in the bag are underestimating Houston’s talent, tournament experience, and them being arguably the most balanced team in the country besides Gonzaga.
Yes, they don’t have Quentin Grimes who was the leader on the Cougars’ Final Four team last season, but they still have Fabian White Jr. (13 points and 1.4 blocks per game), who played a pivotal role in the tournament last season.
Losing Grimes hurt, but Jamal Shead, who only played 10 minutes per game last season, has filled in for the role of Grimes at point guard averaging 9.8 points, 5.9 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Not to mention they also have star transfer from Texas Tech, Kyler Edwards, who is one of the most experienced players in the country as well and has filled in for the injured Marcus Sasser brilliantly.
The Cougars’ have a top 15 offense in the NCAA with a 115.3 offensive rating, but also the 2nd ranked defense in NCAA Division 1 with a defensive rating of 89.5, just .3 percent behind the Zags for the best in the nation. Like the Zags in the WCC, Houston didn’t really play anybody good in the AAC and their numbers are pumped up because of that, but they are still one of the best all-around teams in the country.
Arizona also has one of the best offenses in the country with the 7th ranked offensive rating in the country of 116.8, a team eFG% of 55.9 (15th in NCAA D1), and a TS% of 59.7 (8th in NCAA D1). The Wildcats also have a top 10 defensive rating of 92.5 (only 3 percent behind Houston’s 89.5 2nd in nation defensive rating).
Arizona also has the best scorer in the nation in Bennedict Mathurin, who seems to just keep increasing his draft stock with each game. He had 30 points against TCU and we can expect him to have over 20 points again against the Cougars.
Christian Koloko is the most dominant two-way player other than Chet Holmgren left in the tournament as he is averaging 12.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks on the season and had a career game of 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks in the 85-80 win last weekend against TCU.
Although Houston is one of the most balanced and dominant teams in the country, they simply don’t have the star power and versatility to shut down both Mathurin and Koloko, or even Dalen Terry. Remember that Arizona put up better offensive numbers and almost as good defensive numbers in a top-tier conference in the Pac 12, not the AAC.
Furthermore, although Arizona could have very well lost against TCU last weekend, they will beat Houston by 5 points because they are just too talented and dominant.
Result: Arizona advances to Elite 8.
Friday’s games:
East Region Semifinal 1: 15. Saint Peters vs. 3. Purdue
Saint Peters is a fantastic story and they should be proud of their “Cinderella” run, but it also shouldn’t be a complete surprise that they made the Sweet 16. If you look at their advanced metrics they have the 14th best defense in the country with a defensive rating of 93.1.
Yes, they play in the MAAC and the competition isn’t great, but this is a dominant defensive team nonetheless and it’s indicative throughout their first two games in the NCAA tournament where they only gave up 79 points to the 11th ranked offense in the nation in Kentucky (that game went to overtime), and 60 points to the 6th ranked offense in the nation in Murray State in the second round.
However, even though Saint Peters’ offense has been playing great in the tournament, it only ranks 236th in NCAA D1 with an offensive rating of 99.1, which is absolutely abysmal. There is simply no way, no matter how good their defense is, that Saint Peters will be able to keep up with Purdue offensively. I just don’t see it.
The Boilermakers’ offensive rating of 119.6 is the 3rd best offense in the nation and only .3 percent behind Gonzaga’s 119.9 offensive rating. Their team eFG% of 57 ranks 5th in NCAA D1 and their TS% of 60.1 ranks 3rd in NCAA D1. Not only do they score a ton of points, but the Boilermakers are also extremely efficient from all over the floor in doing it.
One of the best 3 point shooting teams and interior scoring teams in the country, Purdue can only be stopped by a dominant defensive team that can also keep up with their offense, and although Saint Peters has a great defense, they have a terrible offense.
It is important to note that Purdue has one of the worst defenses left in the tournament with an abysmal defensive rating of 103 (ranked barely in the top 150 in NCAA D1) but that’s okay since no one has been able to stop their offense yet and Saint Peters won’t be the team to do that.
Expect Jaden Ivey, Zach Edey, and Trevion Williams to absolutely dominate St. Peters on the offensive end and I see Purdue winning 85-75 as I will give the “Cinderella” story Peacocks some praise that they’ll get within 10 points in the final box score. Sorry Saint Peters, but your run ends here.
Result: Purdue advances to Elite 8
Midwest Region Semifinal 1: 4. Providence vs. 1. Kansas
Possibly my least favorite game this weekend, Providence will look to upset a Kansas team that is supremely overrated. Yes, they have experience with Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, and Remy Martin, but they aren’t particularly dominant on either end of the floor.
The Jayhawks have the 22nd ranked offense in NCAA D1 with an offensive rating of 113.1, the 29th team eFG% of 54.1, and the 25th team TS% of 57.7, and their defensive rating of 98 ranks 60th in all of NCAA Division 1.
Providence on the other hand has the 95th ranked defensive rating in the nation at 98.5 and has a very bad offense as well even though their offensive rating and advanced shooting percentages aren’t displayed publicly for whatever reason.
How do I know this? Well, because South Dakota State ranks 232nd in defensive rating at 103.9 and the Friars only scored 66 points on them. However, you could also argue the inverse and that Providence’s defense has been overachieving as South Dakota State had a 121.1 offensive rating this year (1st in the whole nation) yet only scored 57 points against the Friars. Richmond also only scored 51 points against Providence in the Round of 32 matchup last weekend as well.
Although this game will be close and could go either way since both teams are hot and playing well at the moment, the Friars don’t have Ochai Agbaji and he will most definitely be the difference in this game. Agbaji is averaging 19.3 points per game and 40% from 3PT range. As long as he can hit his shots (which he likely will) the Jayhawks will pull this out.
Result: Kansas advances to Elite 8
East Region Semifinal 2: 8. North Carolina vs. 4. UCLA, 6:39 PM Pacific, CBS
This will be one heck of a game between two blue blood programs. North Carolina has been one of the hottest teams in the country since their upset win against Duke at coach K’s last home game of his career.
The momentum for the Tar Heels hasn’t stopped and Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis have been arguably the best tandem in the NCAA tournament so far this year. Davis is coming off of a 30 point game against Baylor and Armando Bacot dominated inside with 15 points, 16 rebounds, and 1 block.
Although Davis only had 4 points in the first tournament game against Marquette, he had 12 assists and let Bacot (17 points and 10 rebounds) and Caleb Love (23 points) take over the scoring duties.
One of the best starting 5’s in the country with Bacot, Love, Davis, Brady Manek (15.1 points per game), and Leakey Black, it should be no surprise that the Tar Heels went on this run to start the tournament. North Carolina’s offensive rating of 110.2 ranks 28th in the nation and their defensive rating of 100.6 ranks 144th in the nation.
The Tar Heels have a good offense and a below-average defense and they will have to outscore everyone they play to win. That is indicative of their first two games in the tournament as they put up 95 points against Marquette in round 1 and 93 points in the second round against 1 seeded Baylor.
Neither of those teams are as balanced as the Bruins though. Surprisingly Baylor actually had a 92.9 defensive rating which was ranked 11th in the country yet they gave up 93 points to North Carolina. The Bruins have a top 30 defense in the nation with a 94.8 defensive rating, and a top 20 offense in the nation with a 111.9 offensive rating. The Bruins also have more tournament experience than any team left in the tournament and they can use that to their advantage.
Tyger Campbell is arguably the best point guard in the country with his ability to control the pace of play, score from anywhere on the court, and not turn the ball over almost at all.
In fact, the Bruins as a whole own the best turnover percentage (11.5) in the nation and that will be the difference in the game assuming Jaime Jaquez can play, who has been their best player this season and looks to be a first-round draft pick with his ability to be a lockdown perimeter defender and have a polished offensive game.
If Jaquez doesn’t play, the Bruins will have a hard time winning this game as Johnny Juzang will need to return to last year’s tournament form, something he hasn’t done all season long in a disappointing year for him.
Cody Riley will be able to guard Armando Bacot but he could get into foul trouble early as well, and we all know that the Bruins struggle with size. Tyger Campbell, Jules Bernard, and Jaylen Clarke will be able to lockdown Davis, Love, and other guards, but shutting down Bacot will be the key and Riley needs to step up big time.
I am betting on Jaquez to suit up for this one as he’s played hurt all season long anyway so the more experienced team who doesn’t turn the ball over in UCLA wins a nailbiter.
Result: UCLA advances to Elite 8
Midwest Region Semifinal 2: 11. Iowa State vs. 10. Miami, 6:59 PM Pacific, TBS
The final game of Friday’s slate is 10 seeded Miami vs. 11 seeded Iowa State and regardless of whoever wins, a double-digit seed will be represented in the Elite 8 this year.
Both teams have completed two upsets in a row with Miami winning a nailbiter against a USC squad that was once ranked 5th in the country in the first round and beating arguably the best team in the country at multiple points this season in Auburn in the second round. Iowa State beat a solid LSU squad in the first round and one of the best Big 10 teams this season in Wisconsin in the second round.
Iowa State’s turnaround from 2-22 last season to possibly punching their ticket to the Elite 8 in the following season is one of the most fantastic stories in recent memory and they have a serious shot to do that with a win on Friday night.
The Cyclones rank 267th in NCAA Division 1 with an offensive rating of 97.1, 203rd in team eFG% at 49.4, and 230th in TS% at 52. All of those numbers signify a team that struggles on the offensive end more than 90 percent of college basketball teams.
However, that hasn’t stopped the Cyclones from squeezing their way into the tournament and winning their first two matchups. Yes, both of those matchups were extremely close, but they still won both of them. Why is that? Well, Iowa State has a dominant defense as their defensive rating of 92.1 ranks 8th in the nation. They only allowed LSU to put up 54 points and Wisconsin 49 points and will continue to dominate defensively against the Hurricanes.
Miami has had a late-season surge going to the ACC semifinal and losing to the Duke Blue Devils. The Hurricanes are the polar opposite of the Cyclones with the 26th overall ranked offensive rating of 110.3 in the nation, the 31st ranked team eFG% of 53.8, and the 31st ranked TS% of 56.8.
With Isaiah Wong (15.5 points per game), Kameron McGusty (17.5 points and 1.8 steals per game), and Charlie Moore (12.8 points, 4.6 assists, and 2.1 steals per game) leading the way on offense, the Hurricanes have a very formidable trio that can wreak havoc on opposing defenses. Wong has been the MVP for Miami this tournament with 21+ points in both of the first two games.
If the Cyclones want to beat Miami, they will have to stop Isaiah Wong who has been tearing defenses apart. Miami’s kryptonite is defense as they rank 225th in defensive rating at 103.7.
The Cyclones will need to rely on team basketball, dominant defense, and hitting big-time threes to stop the Hurricanes. You know what they say though, defense wins championships and Iowa State’s defense will prevail over Miami’s offense in this one.
Result: Iowa State advances to Elite 8
Elite 8 Matchups: Times are TBD
Saturday’s Matchups:
West Region Final: 2. Duke Vs. 1. Gonzaga, time TBD but on TBS
This is going to be a primetime game. Like I mentioned in the previous passages about both of these teams, Gonzaga is the most balanced team in the nation with the 2nd ranked offense and the 1st ranked defense, and Duke is also very balanced with a top 5 offense and top 80 defense.
If this is the matchup then it should become the highest viewed tournament game of the year so far. Two storied programs, the top overall seed still looking for its school’s first national title vs. Coach K’s last tournament team.
What a story and you just know this game is bound to go down to the wire. Mark Williams will need to shut down Chet Holmgren to make Duke even have a shot at this game. Williams has the size and strength to dominate Holmgren on both ends of the floor and get him into foul trouble, which could alter the game completely.
There is no hope in stopping Gonzaga star and possibly National Player of The Year Drew Timme. He is going to get his 20-30 points and 10-15 rebounds. It’s just going to happen. What Duke can do is level their size with Gonzaga’s size and make this a bloodbath on both ends of the floor.
Two of the most high-powered offenses in the nation, Paolo Banchero will need to continue his hot streak of 17+ points per game and 44% from 3PT range so far in this tournament to keep up with the dominant interior scoring from Timme and Holmgren. I trust that Banchero will do that, and I also trust Wendell Moore Jr. And A.J. Griffin to have their best games of the tournament.
However, I also trust Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme to each have their best games of the tournament, along with guard Andrew Nembhard, who can score at will against non-elite defenses such as Duke. Memphis and Georgia State both tried their best to knock off the overall #1 seed, but Gonzaga is just too good.
Sure, Duke is a more formidable opponent than Memphis, but I am still trusting Drew Timme to be the difference in this game. He always steps up when the Zags need him and he will do it again and outduel Banchero and Moore at the end of the game to send Gonzaga to its second straight Final Four appearance.
Result: Gonzaga beats Duke in a close one and advances to the Final Four
South Region Final: 2. Villanova Vs. 1. Arizona, Time TBD, but on TBS
This could very well be Villanova vs. Houston too as I am not too confident in the Arizona Wildcats getting here, but either way, this will be a good game. I am going to refer to both of these programs as their university name since they are both the Wildcats.
I really think Villanova has the experience and composure to win this game as Collin Gillespie just makes all of the right plays and Arizona just doesn’t have a guy that can shut him down. However, Villanova doesn’t have a dominant guy that can score on Christian Koloko in the paint nor one who can guard Koloko on defense.
Arizona has one of the most dominant teams in the country with Bennedict Mathurin and Christian Koloko wreaking havoc on opposite ends of the floor. If Dalen Terry can get going in this game it’s over for Villanova, and I really think that will be the case in the final stretch of this game.
Villanova does have a defense that can shut down Arizona for most of the game, but I highly doubt they will be able to score with them as the game goes on, which is why I have Arizona winning in another close one.
Result: Arizona beats Villanova and advances to Final Four
Sunday’s Matchups:
East Region Championship: 4. UCLA Vs. 3. Purdue
I really want this matchup to happen since UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country and Purdue has one of the best offenses in the country. This is a nightmare matchup for UCLA though, as they will have no one that can guard 7-4 Zach Edey down low. Cody Riley is barely 6-9 on a good day and Myles Johnson (UCLA’s backup center) is only 6-10 as well.
Also, are they going to put 6-5 Jaylen Clarke, 6-6 Jules Bernard, 6-7 Jaime Jaquez, or 6-8 Peyton Watson on 6-10 255 pounds senior Trevion Williams? Because that is a recipe for disaster as Riley is the only guy who can effectively guard him and he will be guarding Edey on the opposite post.
I am confident Tyger Campbell and Jaylen Clarke will be able to shut down Jaden Ivey in this game at least a little bit, but Purdue will need to dominate in the low post the whole game to put points on the scoreboard.
UCLA isn’t known for their offense (even though its ranked in the top 30), but Tyger Campbell will be getting a ton of 3PT looks as will the rest of the UCLA offense in this game. Purdue has a horrendous defense that can be exploited in every possible way, especially with the small ball that UCLA likes to play.
Zach Edey and Trevion Williams are slow, and the Purdue wings aren’t quick enough to stop Johnny Juzang, Jules Bernard, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Jaylen Clarke from getting to the basket and creating their own shot.
Yes, Cody Riley will probably be shut down as will the rest of the interior offense that UCLA has grown accustomed to relying on this season, but that only opens more opportunities for 3 pointers (and UCLA hit a lot of them late in a dominant win over 5 seeded Saint Mary’s last weekend).
I think this game will come down to turnovers and I trust that UCLA, who has the #1 turnover percentage in the country, will come out on top in another close one.
UCLA beats Purdue and advances to a second straight Final Four appearance
Midwest Region Championship: 11. Iowa State Vs. 1. Kansas
This will be one heck of a game even though Kansas beat Iowa State both times in the regular season, one of those games was only decided by a mere 1 point.
Iowa State has a great defense but they just really don’t have the depth and defensive versatility to shut down all three of Remy Martin, Christian Braun, and Ochai Agbaji if they are all hot at the same time (which was the case in the second half in last weekends win over Creighton).
I love the story of the Cyclones getting to the Elite 8 following a 2-22 season, but their season will end here. Although I don’t think Kansas is that good and they got rewarded with being the 1 seed in the easiest region, they will still squeeze into the Final Four by beating their Big 12 rival for the third time this season.
Kansas beats Iowa State and advances to Final Four
Projected Final Four after this weekend:
Gonzaga
Arizona
UCLA
Kansas