Luka Doncic is an MVP candidate, so why are the Mavericks struggling immensely?
Doncic is having the best season of his young career, but there are a multitude of issues on this Mavs team, none of which have to do with Doncic.
After reaching the Western Conference Finals last season, the Mavericks had high hopes of taking the next step and getting to the NBA Finals this season. They took that first step in the offseason by acquiring a versatile offensive minded big in Christian Wood, who can hit the 3 at a high level and dominate inside on the offensive end.
However, after the Wood signing, the Mavericks lost arguably their second best player in Jalen Brunson to the Knicks (a four year-104 million dollar deal) as they didn’t want to match that price. Brunson was one of the key pieces in the Mavericks run to the Conference Finals as he averaged 21.6 points and 3.7 assists per game with a TS% of 55.3. This season Brunson is averaging 20.4 points and 6.3 assists per game with a TS% of 57.3 and has been an instrumental part of the Knicks’ 15-13 start.
Meanwhile the Mavericks have lost three of their last four games and sit at 9th in the Western Conference with a 14-14 record to start the season. Those last three losses came against the Cavaliers, Bulls, and Bucks, and the only game the Mavs have won in the last week was against the 11-17 Thunder. This is not to say that re-signing Jalen Brunson would have solved all of the Mavs’ problems, but it certainly would have helped.
Besides Luka Doncic (33 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game with a TS% of 60.2), Spencer Dinwiddie (16.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game with a great 3PT% of 41 and a TS% of 59.5), Christian Wood (16.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game with a stellar 3PT% of 41.1 and TS% of 63), and Josh Green (7 points per game with an incredible 3PT% of 44.4 and a TS% of 71.7) the Mavs haven’t been able to rely on any of their other key players on offense.
In a gut-wrenching home loss to the Bucks last Friday night, Doncic was visibly frustrated as his teammates missed a multitude of crucial free throws down the stretch in the 106-105 loss. The main culprits of the crucial missed free throws were Dorian Finney-Smith (8.4 points and 4 rebounds per game with a FT% of 65.2, a 3PT% of 33.1, and a TS% of 53.4) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (12.9 points and 1.4 steals per game with a FT% of 79.7, a 3PT% of 36.4, and a TS% of 52.7), both of whom have severely underperformed considering their contracts this season (13.9 million per year for Finney-Smith and 18.8 million per year for Hardaway Jr.).
Reggie Bullock (5.1 points per game with a 3PT% of 31.8 and a TS% of 49.4) and Davis Bertans (3.3 points and only 7.5 minutes per game) were also nowhere to be found late in the Bucks game (Bullock makes 10 million per year and Bertans makes 16 million per year despite both supposed to be integral parts of this team).
When four of your most important and highest paid players are not performing or even playing at some points for that matter, that is a doom scenario for a basketball team. Despite the continued offensive struggles of Finney-Smith, Hardaway, Bullock, and Bertans, the Mavs still have an offensive rating of 114.6 (ranked 8th), a team eFG% of 55.4 (ranked 7th), and a team TS% of 58.8 (ranked 9th in the NBA).
Their defensive rating of 113.3 (ranked 20th in the NBA) is very concerning, considering the team thrived last season with a defensive rating of 109.1 (which ranked 7th in the entire NBA). Despite some of their highest paid players underperforming, Doncic’s greatness has still allowed this team to dominate games offensively.
However, Finney-Smith, Hardaway Jr., Bullock, and Bertans are at the very least supposed to be playing great defense if they can’t be consistent on the other end of the floor and they simply aren’t. Another trait that Brunson brought to this roster was defense despite his small 6-1 frame, and the Knicks are winning basketball games because of their defensive rating of 111.5 (ranked 12th in the NBA).
Keeping Brunson would have certainly raised the ceiling of this team, but it would have meant an extreme luxury tax for a team already paying Doncic 43 million per year, Hardaway Jr. 18.8 million per year, Bertans $16 million per year, Dinwiddie $18 million per year, Wood $13.7 million per year, and Bullock $10 million per yer.
Furthermore, the biggest issue with the Mavericks this season is the allocation of money given to players that are underperforming. Perhaps if they didn’t trade for Bertans (though they probably also wouldn’t have been able to acquire Dinwiddie who has been fantastic for them), and sign Hardaway Jr, Finney-Smith, and Bullock to extensions then the team could have not only kept Brunson, but also allocated their finances to better players that would have bolstered the depth of a team with championship hopes.
At what point do the Mavs consider all options to move on from the key players causing financial constraints? That will be the time the team can reach its peak and be a perennial title contender. Until then, they are wasting key seasons of a player that will go down as one of the greatest to ever touch a basketball.
Note: Advanced Statistics used in this article are gathered from Statmuse.com and NBA.com and are updated as of Thursday, December 15th, 2022. Contract details mentioned in this article are gathered from Spotrac.com.
Excellent piece.