Is this the best rookie class since 2003? The depth of this class says it very well could be
With Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Josh Giddey leading the way, other rookies are making an immediate impact showing how deep this rookie class is
Advanced statistics used in this article are from NBA.com, ESPN.com, and StatMuse.com.
There is still a ways to go in the 2021-2022 NBA season and the Rookie of the Year race is far from over (so many guys could win it seems to be just getting started). However, there are already so many rookies making immediate impacts for their teams, some of whom weren’t even drafted (Austin Reeves), and we haven’t seen this type of depth from a rookie class as NBA fans since at least 2003.
Other classes may prove to be more star-studded and top-heavy (like 2018 with Doncic, Young, Ayton, Gilegous-Alexander, and Jackson Jr, or 2016 with Simmons, Brown, Murray, Siakam, and Sabonis), but this class has the makings to be the deepest draft in the history of the NBA.
Obviously, time will tell as these young stars’ careers are just starting (among the other players in recent draft classes as well), but I wanted to use advanced statistics to show how good each impactful player is in this class already in year 1.
Let’s start with the big names of the 2022 NBA draft such as Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Scottie Barnes, and Evan Mobley. Just over two weeks ago Cunningham became the only rookie other than Michael Jordan to record a 34 point game with 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 4 blocks, and 2 steals, which just shows how good Cunningham can become in this league.
On the downside, Cunningham has struggled with efficiency and consistency sometimes following a brilliant game like the one mentioned above with a 4-17 shooting night for 12 points, 5 assists, and 7 turnovers. Cunningham is averaging 15.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game with a miserable eFG% of 46 and a terrible TS% of 48.9.
Cunningham is still 20 years old, but he has had some games this season that have warranted his draft comparison to “a more athletic Luka Doncic”. Will he become as good as Doncic? Time will tell, but first Cunningham needs to work on his consistency, similar to what Lamelo Ball did this offseason following an inefficient first season from the floor.
I could delve into Jalen Green’s statistics, but he is having the most inefficient season of any rookie for his usage percentage in the history of the game, so I don’t think I need to. Green has shown flashes of his scoring ability in some games this season, but he needs to improve with his efficiency to make a serious impact in this league. He should do that in time, as he’s still just 20 years old.
Evan Mobley is the easy favorite for ROY at this moment as his immediate impact on both sides of the floor has helped establish the Cavaliers as serious contenders in the Eastern Conference.
Mobley is averaging 14.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game with an eFG% of 51.8 and a TS% of 54.7. Mobley entered the league as one of the premier shot blockers but no one, myself included, expected Mobley to develop this kind of offensive game this rapidly. Mobley will be a two-way superstar in this league soon and it could be as soon as next year.
Scottie Barnes started off the season hot and has continued to play good basketball as a part of the main core of the Raptors all season long. Barnes is already a very good defender and can pass at an elite level for a 6-10 guy as well. He is averaging 14.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1 steal per game with an eFG% of 50.4 and a TS% of 53.6.
People questioned Barnes being picked at 4 overall over Jalen Suggs, but Suggs’ struggles, so far this season and Barnes's immediate impact on a playoff team in the Raptors have silenced doubters very quickly.
The next set of guys I am going to discuss are the underrated superstars of this draft class who fell outside the top 5 including Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey, Ziaire Williams, Herbert Jones, Franz Wagner, Chris Duarte, Davion Mitchell, Bones Hyland, Cameron Thomas, Brandon Boston Jr., and Austin Reeves.
Kuminga is first up and his overall statistics are not impressive considering he wasn’t playing more than 4-10 minutes per game at most when Draymond Green was healthy. However, since Draymond Green has been out, Kuminga has shown flashes of two-way superstardom blocking shots, getting to the rim, and scoring at ease, all while shooting very well too.
Since Green went down, Kuminga has averaged 20.7 minutes, 11.6 points, and 4.3 rebounds with an eFG% of 57.3. Kuminga has now shown the ability to put up points and be efficient as a rookie even on a championship contender.
Josh Giddey may rival Evan Mobley and Cade Cunningham as the ROY so far this season as the Thunder point guard is a triple-double machine who can impact the game in so many ways. Although Giddey has impressive averages on the season of 12.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game, Giddey’s averages over the last 10 games of 16.2 points, 9 rebounds, and 7.5 assists are even more impressive.
Giddey doesn’t shoot the ball well yet (eFG% of 46.1 and TS% of 47.8), but these are similar shooting stats to LaMelo Ball’s rookie season, and he took a huge leap this year. It is hard to beleive that at the time, the Thunder’s selection of Giddey was criticized as no one would dare talk bad about that pick now with the way he is playing.
I won’t go into Ziaire Williams’ stats on the year since he hasn’t played a bunch of minutes until recently, but he has had a couple of 25 point games on the season, can play defense at a high level, and is positively impacting a championship contender already.
Picked in the second round at 36th overall, Herbert Jones is averaging close to 30 minutes per game and is the cornerstone of this Pelicans defense as Jones is averaging 1.5 steals per game on the year (top 10 in the NBA) and is a shutdown defender who can hit 3’s as well.
Jones's defensive dominance has been getting overlooked since the Pelicans are terrible, but Jones could turn into one of the five best players in this draft just on his defense.
Davion Mitchell, another lockdown perimeter defender like Jones, has played so well over the past 20 or so games that the Kings felt comfortable trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis since they had a multitude of guards. Mitchell is now the starting shooting guard alongside De’Aaron Fox in the backcourt and has averaged 16.1 points, 4.6 assists, and 2.8 rebounds over his past 10 games since getting increased minutes and usage.
Chirs Duarte is as consistent as they come averaging 13.4 points and 4.1 rebounds per game with an eFG% of 51, a TS% of 54, and a 3PT% of 36.4. Already one of the league’s most feared 3PT shooters, Duarte has surpassed 25 points multiple times this season mostly just on threes. He is now the backbone alongside Tyrese Haliburton in the backcourt of the future for the Pacers.
Bones Hyland is another guy that has gotten increased usage and minutes with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. being out for most of the season and he has had three 20 point games already this season and has provided good defense as well. The Nuggets have the 6th seed in the Western Conference right now and Hyland has stepped up and filled a role that has helped them secure that spot.
Cam Thomas has been absolutely balling recently with increased minutes due to Kyrie Irving not being able to play home games, Harden getting traded, and Kevin Durant being out, with averages of 21.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game over the past 7 games. Thomas can flat out score and take over games as he has done it on numerous occasions this season. On draft day I could not believe such an elite scorer fell to 27th overall and now teams regret passing on the LSU product.
Franz Wagner has really surprised me with his consistency and ability to do everything. I wasn’t high on him on draft day, but boy was I wrong as Wagner has been one of the lone bright spots for the Magic this season averaging 15.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game with an eFG% of 51.6 and a TS% of 55.7. Wagner is a sleeper for ROY if this production continues, even on a bad team like the Magic.
Brandon Boston Jr. was my “steal of the draft” as the Clippers selected him with the 51st overall pick and this was a guy who was a top 5 projected player entering Kentucky. He fell due to one bad season, but the jumper, offensive brilliance, length, and ability to defend are all there for Boston Jr. who has showed out when given the minutes this season for the Clippers. Boston Jr. is already a “Celtic” killer known for his big games against the Celtics, but Boston Jr. can score 25+ points any night if he gets hot from beyond the arc.
Austin Reeves is the lone undrafted player on this list and he has been a godsend for the Lakers shooting the ball with consistency and efficiency (58 eFG%, 62 TS%) while also being a lockdown defender. Reeves has hit a couple of big-time daggers for the Lakers this season and is starting to become the Lakers glue guy and a must-start every single game.
In conclusion, this could become the deepest draft in the history of the NBA as so many players from this class are already making big-time impacts, even on contending teams. Some players in the draft that could become stars are still in the G League and haven’t been given opportunities in the NBA yet. Only time will tell whether this draft continues to dominate the NBA but as of right now it’s looking pretty dominant.