Is there any glimmer of hope left for the Lakers this season?
As the most disappointing season of any team in the history of the NBA continues, what do the advanced statistics and strength of schedule say about the Lakers chances?
Advanced statistics used in this article are gathered from NBA.com, StatMuse.com, and ESPN.com.
The expectation for the 2021-2022 Los Angeles Lakers was a championship or at least to be in the mix for the coveted trophy by the end of the season. There is no denying that and every media member including myself expected the Lakers to at the very least compete for a title, even with Russell Westbrook and the question marks surrounding the team’s age, scheme, and lack of defense.
When the Lakers traded for Russell Westbrook in July of last year, many people, including most NBA front offices, were skeptical of the fit, but no one expected a team with LeBron James on it to be 13 games under .500 with 7 games to go in the season. It doesn’t matter who is on a LeBron James team whether it’s a bunch of G leaguers or NBA Stars like Westbrook and Anthony Davis, there is no reason for a James-led team to be 13 games under .500.
Yes, it’s unfair to expect the kind of greatness we are expecting from a 37-year-old NBA superstar, but James is still one of the best players in the NBA. He is leading the league in scoring (30.1 points per game) and is 4th in Player Efficiency Rating (PER) at 26.42, only trailing the three MVP frontrunners Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetoukounmpo, and Joel Embiid who are 1st, 2nd, and 3rd respectively in PER.
But even LeBron James can’t take this team to the promised land. The Lakers haven’t won two games in a row since October, Anthony Davis has yet again missed most of the season, and Frank Vogel is a defensive-minded coach who can’t coach offense to save his life, yet the Lakers front office put together a team of offensive players who can’t play defense. Now, not all of this is Rob Pelinka’s fault, in fact, LeBron James is the culprit in putting together this roster.
He should be the one to blame, and no I don’t feel sorry for him that his team is 13 games under .500. It is called karma. James was the one who canceled Pelinka’s deal to acquire Buddy Hield (who is one of the best spot-up shooters in the NBA and a perfect fit for James) to push for Russell Westbrook.
James insisted to give up whatever it took to get the ball-dominant star in Westbrook and that cost the Lakers defense, youth, and championship experience as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma were two-way successes for the Lakers, and although Montrezl Harrell was benched by Vogel for much of last year, he still can score offensively. Not to mention they also sent a first-round pick in that deal for Westbrook as well.
To no surprise Kuzma is having his best season yet, Caldwell-Pope is being his usual 3 and D successful self, while Westbrook has not fit alongside James and is having the worst season of his career. Granted, Kuzma would have never developed to what he is now on the Lakers, but he still has length and skill for a 6-10 forward and is only getting better defensively. Caldwell-Pope was expendable as long as the team acquired a dominant spot-up shooter like Buddy Hield in the deal, but the Lakers simply didn’t and as a result the loss of Caldwell-Pope stings.
James was also the one who pushed for Carmelo Anthony, and although Anthony has had a good year offensively, he is a liability defensively and is slow and old, which doesn’t help the Lakers who want to play at a fast pace because of Westbrook. The Lakers had success the last two seasons being one of the most dominant defensive teams in the league.
They were ranked 1st in defensive rating at 106.8 in 2020-2021, and 3rd in defensive rating at 106.1 in 2019-2020 (the year they won the NBA championship). Now, their defensive rating is ranked 20th at 112.2 and their offensive rating is even worse at 109.6, which ranks 24th in the NBA despite them having the 7th fastest PACE in the NBA. They are trying to outscore teams, which is a recipe for disaster for an old and slow team such as the Lakers.
Occasionally the Lakers can look like a dominant team but those instances usually occur in the first two quarters. Again, since they are old and slow, which is a common problem for the Lakers, they get exhausted and are outscored as a result in most third and fourth quarters so far this season. Another issue for the Lakers has been turnovers as they rank 21st in TOV% (Turnover Percentage) at 14.4 percent. Like most terrible teams in the history of the NBA, the Lakers turn the ball over too much which does not help their chances of winning.
With Paul George looking good in his return to the Clippers last night, and with San Antonio and New Orleans playing good basketball, it’s a pipe dream for the Lakers to beat two teams in a row to even get into the playoffs. They haven’t won two games in a row since October, so how are they going to win two in a row in the play-in? It is also important to note that the Lakers have gone 0-6 against the Clippers in their last 6 meetings. Paul George returning and Kawhi Leonard’s imminent return as well don’t make those odds better I can tell you that with confidence.
So is there a glimmer of hope for the Lakers? The answer is no, The Lakers face top 6 Western Conference teams in five of their last seven games. In those final 7 games, they face the Jazz in Utah (where everyone has trouble winning), the Pelicans at home (a must-win for the Lakers), the Nuggets at home (another must-win), then the Suns and Warriors on the road before returning home to play the Thunder, then flying to Denver to play the Nuggets again in the last game of the season. LeBron James is hurt and he didn’t play in the blowout loss against Dallas last night. He has already been ruled out against Utah and knows if he will play against New Orleans in the game after that. The Spurs who are now tied with the Lakers in the standings have a much easier remaining schedule. Statistically at this rate, the Lakers won’t even make the play-in tournament and they do not have their 2022 first-round pick as insurance.
The Lakers play with no heart, their body language is awful, and their team camaraderie is nonexistent at this point. The advanced statistics depict an awful team, in fact, a bottom 10 team statistically in the NBA. Their team eFG% of 53.7 is tied for 10th in the NBA and that is the only advanced statistic that is positive for the Lakers. That is also mostly because of James, Monk, and others hitting a multitude of 3’s at a high percentage this year despite their awful offensive rating.
Nonetheless, this season is a wash and when LeBron James clinches the scoring title, they should shut him down for the season if he hasn’t done that already. When Anthony Davis returns it likely won’t help the team’s chances. The Lakers are too discombobulated to rally around Davis and James and win two games in the play-in tournament. Statistically, it is possible that James and Davis alone can will the Lakers into the playoffs, but they have a less than a 1 percent chance to do that and then beat the NBA’s best team, the Phoenix Suns.
Although the Lakers front office has been a mess since Kobe Bryant’s late years, they were saved by LeBron James and Anthony Davis in 2020, when they actually won a championship. However, that already seems like a decade ago with the team they’ve trotted out there this year. They didn’t win that championship due to Rob Pelinka or Linda Rambis, but instead because of James and Davis’ greatness that willed them to win it all despite many challenges in the bubble.
Pelinka, who was formerly Bryant’s agent, is inexperienced as a GM and simply isn’t the guy to lead this team back to the promised land. Similarly, Linda Rambis, who is a close friend of Jeanie Buss, does not have the necessary experience to be counted on to help run a storied organization like the Lakers. Jeanie Buss would be wise to bring in more experienced front office executives to help run the organization next season.
Although the organization’s future is in shambles since James will retire within a couple of seasons, they still are only a few pieces away from winning an NBA championship surprisingly. They have a good base of LeBron James and Anthony Davis but need to surround those guys with defensive-minded players who can shoot the 3-ball. The team this year not only can’t play defense, but only has a few players that can be relied upon to hit 3’s (Monk, James, Ellington, and maybe Anthony every once in a while).
Realistically, they never should have broken up the team from last year that lost to the Suns in the first round. If they had a healthy Anthony Davis, that is a whole different series. I know that, you know that, the Suns know that, and the Lakers know that. Despite the loss due to injuries, the Lakers had the #1 defense in the league because of Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, Kyle Kuzma, Marc Gasol, Davis, and others.
They would have had at least a top 6 team in the Western Conference this year if they had just trotted out the same team from last year. But no, they got greedy and tried to overdo it by negating analytics and acquiring Westbrook who can’t shoot or play defense, both of which the Lakers needed most this season.
Now they are stuck with Westbrook’s contract (who nobody will take on) and don’t have the finances to go get other players this offseason besides those on the veteran minimum contracts. They will likely lose Malik Monk who has been a godsend for them, and the only players they can count on to return and improve next season are James, Davis, Austin Reeves, and Talen Horton-Tucker.
Although James is to blame for his role in assembling the mismatched parts that constitute this year’s Lakers squad he is playing fantastic and Lakers fans should enjoy him playing for their organization.
In conclusion, the Lakers could fix this organizational issue, but this offseason they need to make a lot of changes by finding a way to fix the Westbrook mess while also picking up defensive-minded players who can hit threes. If they do that, and Anthony Davis finds a new trainer that can help him avoid getting injured next season, then the Lakers may have one more year in their championship window.