Is the Bulls’ success reliant on Lonzo Ball’s health?
How important is Lonzo Ball's impact to the Bulls winning?
The Chicago Bulls had a successful season, finishing 6th in the Eastern Conference and making the NBA playoffs for the first time in five years. The previous year the Bulls went all in by trading Wendell Carter Jr. and a 2021 first-round pick (which turned out to be Franz Wagner) to the Orlando Magic for Nikola Vucevic (who has had a tumultuous tenure on the Bulls as many fans question his impact on winning). Although a steep price, it signified an effort to contend, something the organization had been lacking for years.
The duo of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic played well together but struggled to stay healthy throughout the rest of that 2020-2021 season and the team missed the playoffs as further skepticism ensued on whether Bulls Executive Vice President Arturas Karnisovas was in over his head. Following a successful tenure in basketball operations for the Denver Nuggets, Karnisovas was specifically brought in by Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf to put the Bulls back on the map and contend for titles.
The following offseason Karnisovas once again reinforced the desire to win by signing DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball, two of the most coveted free agents in the 2021 NBA free agent class. Things started off great for the Bulls who came out of the gate with a 22-13 overall record and sat 1st in the Eastern Conference Standings. However, Lonzo Ball went down with a serious knee injury in mid-January and failed to return. In fact, questions still remain as to whether Ball will be 100 percent ready for the start of the upcoming season.
The Bulls finished the year 24-23 falling from 1st- 6th in the Eastern Conference Standings and only won one playoff game (thanks to DeMar DeRozan) against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bulls season has been a point of discussion among many NBA fans, some viewing it as successful and some viewing it as a disappointment considering their fast start to the year. What remains clear is that the season likely turns out differently if Lonzo Ball is healthy as indicative of their record before his injury.
A good point guard is hard to come by and if we look at the history of NBA champions, most of them have had a great point guard at the helm of the title team. Even if we just look at the past five seasons, Stephen Curry for the Warriors, Jrue Holiday for the Bucks, LeBron James for the Lakers, Kyle Lowry for the Raptors, and again Stephen Curry for the Warriors, all of these point guards were considered top 10 at their position at the time of the championship. Lonzo Ball is a top 10 point guard in the NBA because of his excellent two-way abilities as he provides the Bulls with an ability to contend if healthy.
Last season Ball continued to show his growth as a shooter finishing the year with a 42.3% clip from beyond the arc while shooting over 40% on every kind of 3-pointer (catch and shoot, off the dribble, and contested). In fact, Ball rarely had any open looks from 3PT range all season long, according to NBA University (who gave Ball an openness rating of F) and still was able to accomplish all of those shooting feats.
Not to mention, Ball has already established himself as one of the league’s premier on-ball defenders, especially at the point guard position. When Ball entered the league he was mostly about flashy passes and getting his teammates open, not about knocking down threes at a high rate. Remember how awful his jump shot looked? Now that seems to be a distant memory considering his dominance from 3PT range. Although Ball is still one of the best playmakers in the NBA, that isn’t the defense’s sole focus on him anymore as he is much more than simply a good passer. The evolution of Ball as a basketball player in just six years is mesmerizing.
So can the Bulls contend next season if Ball stays healthy? Of course they can as their record of 22-13 with Ball indicates, but they will need more out of Nikola Vucevic to get past the first round. After making the All-Star team and averaging 23.7 points per game with a 56 TS% and 3PT% of 40 in the 2020-2021 season for both the Magic and Bulls, Vucevic only averaged 17.6 points with a 53.3 TS% and a 3PT% of 31.7 last season, showing a significant offensive decline.
Was Vucevic ever going to replicate his career year from the 2020-2021 NBA season? No, but reverting to a mean of 19 or 20 points per game with a 54/55 TS% and a 3PT% of 35/36 was the bare minimum of expectations, not this. It’s important to note that Vucevic isn’t known as a good defender by any means, in fact, seen as a liability in teams’ eyes at the center position.
One of the guys the Bulls traded for Vucevic, Wendell Carter Jr., is now considered to be one of the better interior defenders at the center position in the NBA and isn’t too far behind offensively than Vucevic as well (not to mention he’s much younger and costs substantially less). Carter Jr. averaged 15 points, and 10.5 rebounds per game with a TS% of 60.3 and a 3PT% of 32.5. The efficiency was much better than Vucevic as was his interior defense. Bulls fans must not be too happy to see that Franz Wagner had a stellar rookie season as well, only furthering the pain of that trade.
Nonetheless, Vucevic is still no slouch and looked very good in the first round of the playoffs against the Bucks, one game single-handedly keeping them in the ball game. Zach Lavine has his defensive woes but is one of the league’s best offensive players, and DeMar DeRozan won’t replicate the career year he had last season, but will still score 24 points per game and provide offensive value despite also being a liability defensively. Ayo Donsunmu also had a fantastic rookie year in valuable minutes and both Coby White and Patrick Williams should only improve as well, furthering the clear depth of this roster.
They also added Andre Drummond and Goran Dragic to provide extra depth alongside JaVonte Green and Alex Caruso. Add in a healthy Lonzo Ball and now 2022 Draft pick Dalen Terry and the Bulls will solidify one of the Eastern Conferences’ better rosters with a good mix of talent and depth.
By the way, Alex Caruso is another guy who needs to stay healthy as Caruso and Ball were menaces on both ends of the floor when playing together. Caruso is the type of glue guy that championship teams need and the drop-off in production from this Bulls team wasn’t just because Ball got hurt. Ball was the biggest domino, but Caruso missing a ton of time factored into the Bulls spiraling down the rankings as well.
In conclusion, as last year’s Bulls record with and without Ball demonstrates, Ball is the MVP of this team and dramatically raises the ceiling of this organization. At only 24 years old, Ball has evolved so much already that it wouldn’t surprise me if Ball averaged close to 19 points, 8 assists, and 2 steals per game while becoming an NBA All-Star next season. In fact, this kind of leap in production should be expected from Ball as his numbers and efficiency have substantially gotten better each season. It’s all about his health. Yes, the lingering knee injury is concerning especially if he isn’t 100 percent going into the season. But if Ball is able to stay healthy, this team is at another level and should be in the conversation as one of the Eastern Conference’s elite teams.