Initial Winners and Losers of NBA Free Agency
There were many notable signings in day 1 of free agency but who are the initial winners and losers?
Advanced statistics used in this article are gathered from NBA.com, StatMuse.com, and ESPN.com
As soon as Kevin Durant requested a trade Thursday morning, the whole world was tuned in. One of the top 15-20 players of all time and a consensus top 3 player in the NBA made available through trade rarely happens, so over half of the league called Brooklyn Nets General Manager Sean Marks regarding a Durant blockbuster deal. Although no deal has been agreed upon yet, Durant’s departure from the Nets is imminent and it will cause major ripple effects across the NBA.
Kyrie Irving is also expected to leave the Nets via trade in the coming days and reportedly has his sights on joining the Los Angeles Lakers. However, the Nets still don’t like any of the packages brought to them by Lakers General Manager Rob Pelinka, but at some point, these sides will have to compromise to reach an agreement.
The Lakers aren’t the only team in the Kyrie Irving race as the “dark horse” Dallas Mavericks reportedly are pursuing the disgruntled Nets star as well after losing Jalen Brunson to the Knicks. Assuming Irving’s sole interest in the Lakers is indeed true (skepticism still arises considering earlier this week Kyrie had his sights on the Lakers and publicly stated his commitment to the Nets by opting into his 37.1 million dollar deal), it is hard to see him landing anywhere else but in Los Angeles with the Lakers.
Nonetheless, the first day of free agency was filled with underrated signings and some overpays as well. Let's get into the winners and losers of day 1.
Winner: Sacramento Kings
People may still make fun of the Kings for thinking that they can compete in a stacked Western Conference, but signing Malik Monk (39% from 3PT range with an eFG% and TS% close to 60) for only 9.5 million dollars a year was a steal.
Seeing firsthand how Monk impacted the Lakers at only 23 years of age last season, I was expecting a deal upwards of 10 million dollars annually to get the former Laker to sign elsewhere. However, the Kings pried him away from the Lakers with only 3 more million annually than the Lakers were willing to pay, making it a home-run signing for a team looking to add talent. The Kings still won’t be in the playoffs next year, but signing Malik Monk on day 1 of free agency is a step in the right direction for sure.
Loser: Brooklyn Nets
How could they not be a loser when Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, their two best players, are as good as gone, and the Rockets own the majority of their selections in the coming drafts. Brooklyn is a mess and I would be surprised if they finish higher than 12th in the Eastern Conference without their two superstars.
Ben Simmons hasn’t been on the court in over a year, Nic Claxton is good and they re-signed him with good value (2 years 20 million dollars), Patty Mills was miserable last season but somehow got 7.25 million dollars a year (an upgrade from last season), and Royce O’Neale (who they acquired via trade) is a solid player, but not someone who moves the needle for an organization. Let’s see what haul they can get for Irving and Durant before further judgement. For now, they are the biggest loser of any free agency.
Winner: Milwaukee Bucks
Signing Bobby Portis to a 4 year, 49 million dollar deal is a steal and an underpay. Portis was one of the best 3-point shooters in the NBA last season (39.1 percent on close to five 3-point attempts per game) and can play defense at an elite level. Portis is the heart and soul of this team, the 4th best player on the roster, and the prototypical 3 and D star. 49 million is a discount for a guy that helped win the Bucks a championship and will continue to help them contend in the coming years.
Loser: Philadelphia 76ers:
I know that Philadelphia got P.J. Tucker and Danuel House, both great additions. The only issue is that they gave a 37 year old 3 years, 33 million dollars and his name isn’t LeBron James. Yes, P.J. Tucker is one of the most undderated players in the NBA that wins everywhere he goes, but he isn’t gonna push the needle for this 76ers team with a lot of holes. They still have an overpaid Tobias Harris on their roster, an unreliable James Harden who continues to disappear in the postseason (and his production has diminished after the foul rule change), and for whatever reason added De’Anthony Melton (who is good) but gave up a first round pick for him. None of this makes sense since Doc Rivers is still their coach and James Harden is still James Harden. Joel Embiid is great, but the Raptors and Hawks got way better and I don’t even know if Philadelphia is a top 5 team in the conference.
Winner: Los Angeles Lakers
Rob Pelinka stressed the importance to get younger, better defenders in free agency and that is exactly what he has done so far adding Lonnie Walker IV, Troy Brown Jr., Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Damian Jones. They lost an offensive shot creator in Malik Monk, but they shouldn't be completely mad since Monk didn’t play much defense and his replacement, Lonnie Walker IV is 23, has a 6-10 wingspan, and plays defense.
Not to mention Walker IV also averaged close to 13 points per game on a Spurs team with a lot of depth. Walker IV improves the Lakers defense and tenacity, two things Darvin Ham has continuously stressed the importance of. Troy Brown Jr. is a 6-6 wing, is 22 years old, and plays defense despite being a bit of a project on the offensive end.
But that is also why the Lakers got Ham and Chris Jent, two player-development coaches that will get the most out of Brown Jr. and other young players. Juan Toscano-Anderson will be a fan favorite in Los Angeles as a Mexican-American, and he brings that same toughness and tenacity on both ends of the floor that Darvin Ham wants. Damian Jones excelled in limited minutes for the Kings last season and for the Lakers a couple of seasons ago and will provide interior depth alongside Anthony Davis.
All of these moves may not be enticing to Lakers nation, but from a pure basketball operations perspective, these are home-run signings that will raise the upside for this Lakers team. 15 of the last 16 NBA champions have had a top 11 defensive rating and it looks like the Lakers are trending in that direction.
Loser: New York Knicks
Same old Knicks huh? Kevin Durant is available yet they give Jalen Brunson 4 years, 104 million dollars and didn’t priotirze Kevin Durant at all. Could they have gotten Durant? Maybe if they added Barrett, Robinson, and 3 future first rounders but it’s worth a try to see if the Nets would do that. Nonetheless, just on the Knicks giving Brunson 26 million dollars annually makes them lose free agency.
Brunson is good, but not 26 million dollars a year good and he certainly doesn’t make the Knicks better than a 6 or 7 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Mitchell Robinson signing of 4 years, 60 million dollars, and the Isaiah Hartenstein signing of 2 year, 16.7 million dollars were both good moves, but those guys play the same position and the Knicks likely could have gotten better elsewhere. Either way, the same old Knicks don’t want Kevin Durant and instead are banking on Jalen Brunson to lead them to the promised land.
Winner: Toronto Raptors
I was a bit perplexed when the Raptors gave Chris Boucher 35.25 million dollars over 3 years after Boucher struggled immensely from 3-point range and defensively last season, even losing many minutes to Precious Achiuwa and Khem Birch. Nonetheless, Boucher is still the same player that shot over 35% from 3 and averaged over 2 blocks per game from two seasons ago and if he can get back to that kind of production this isn’t a bad signing at all.
The Raptors mostly won in free agency so far because they added NBA champion Otto Porter Jr. to the roster, a 6-8 wing with a 7-2 wingspan who was pivotal to the Warriors title run last season. One of the better two-way players on the market, Porter Jr. was pried away from the champs and bolsters the Raptors’ depth tremendously. I belive that the Raptors could become a top 4 team in the Eastern Conference if Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr, and OG Anunoby continue to improve.
Loser: Orlando Magic
The Magic didn’t do anything completely awful in free agency but they extended Gary Harris to a 2 year, 26 million dollar deal, which raises many eyebrows. Harris was amazing three season ago for the Nuggets, but has seen his production fall off a cliff ever since the 2018 NBA season. Following a career year for the Nuggets in the 2017-2018 season where Harris averaged 17.5 points per game with a 3PT% of 39.1, Harris then shot 34% from 3PT range three seasons in a row and was a liability at times on both ends of the floor. He was even worse when he joined the Magic in 2020-2021 as he averaged only 9 points and shot 34 percent again from 3. Last season, he was better from 3PT range (38 percent) but in limited usage for the Magic.
With only one productive season in the past 4 years, Harris got 13 million annually from a team that isn’t going to compete any time soon? Just makes no sense to me. On the other hand, I thought Mo Bamba was as good as gone frome the Magic, but re-signed for 2 years, 21 million dollars. Even though Bamba has seen tremendous growth in the past couple of seasons even shooting 38.1% from 3PT range on over 4 attempts per game last season, I don’t like Bamba staying in Orlando in what will be a crowded frontcourt with Johnathan Issac, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr. None of this makes sense for the Magic and their rebuild.
Winner: Dallas Mavericks
Soley on signing JaVale McGee to a 3 year, 21 million dollar deal, the Mavericks were winners from day 1 of free agency. Christian Wood is 6-10 and the Mavs desperately needed an addition on the interior end. They got one in McGee who is an elite interior defender and rebounder. On the offensive end, he will also become an immediate lob threat with Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie.
The Mavs aren’t done yet either as they will be looking for a veteran point guard to replace Jalen Brunson. The reason the Mavericks aren’t losers from the departure of Brunson is that they didn’t pay him 26 million annually which is a win. Brunson doesn't deserve that and although he was great for them, the Mavericks still have Spencer Dinwiddie and will add depth at the guard position in free agency. They could even be looking at Kyrie Irving according to multiple reports.
Loser: Portland Trailblazers
People may hate this one considering the Blazers got better at every position so far this offseason, but 3 years, 28 million dollars for Gary Payton II? I know Payton II is a fantastic player and a guy that will give his all on both ends of the floor, but 9.33 million dollars annually for him is an overpay. Paying Anfernee Simons 4 years, 100 million dollars had to be done, and the same goes for signing Jusuf Nurkic for 4 years, 70 million dollars, but how else can they get better now? They could have given Payton II’s 9.33 million annually to someone else, perhaps another wing that will help them compete in a stacked Western Conference? They have enough guards already.
Winner: Memphis Grizzlies
Letting Kyle Anderson walk for a 2 year, 18 million dollar deal with the Timberwolves is fine. They added Kennedy Chandler, Jake LaRavia, and David Roddy (who are all going to be good NBA players) in the draft and let guys that they would have had to pay at some point (Anderson and Melton) walk. They kept the player they desperately needed to retain in Tyus Jones, who sported the highest assist-to-turnover ratio (7.04) since individual turnovers were tracked in 1977-1978 (per ESPN Stats and Info).
What makes this two year extension even sweeter for the Grizzlies is that Jones could have been a formidable starting point guard on other NBA teams and could have gotten way more money, but the Grizzlies only had to pay him 15 million a year. An absolute steal for the Grizzlies and already an underrated masterclass offseason from Zach Kleiman who is fresh off of an NBA Executive of the Year Award.
Winner: Cleveland Cavaliers
Simply because they retained Ricky Rubio on a 3 year, 18.4 million dollar deal and Rubio completely changed the dynamic of this Cavs team. They were 20-14 with him as their backup point guard and 24-24 without him once Rubio got injured and was out for the season. Crucial to the Cavaliers success, they get Rubio on a deal (only 6.13 million a year) and immediately bolster their chances in the Eastern Conference once Rubio gets healthy.
Lonnie Walker IV was an excellent pick up for the Lakers. A true defensive guard similar to Thybulle but can put up numbers. Can the Lakers secure KD, let’s hope.