How is the Western Conference Going to Play Out?
As the 6 through 12 seed in the Western Conference are separated by just 2 games, which teams are most likely to be playing postseason basketball
The biggest spectacle in basketball over the final few weeks of the season is how the Western Conference standings will play out with numerous talented teams all hovering around for a playoff spot. Though all the teams in the 6-12 seed range would love to not even be in the Play-In Tournament and secure a top 6 seed, they also don’t want to miss postseason entirely either.
The Timberwolves are now .500 and in the 7 seed, and both of their franchise players should return this week (Karl Anthony Towns came back from injury last night and Anthony Edwards, 24.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game with an eFG% of 53.1, is projected to play at some point this week).
Although the Warriors struggle to win on the road, they have a four game home-stand coming up that could give them a somewhat comfortable lead for the 6 seed. Stephen Curry (29.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game with an EFG% of 62) is back and though it remains to be seen if Andrew Wiggins (17.1 points, 5 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game with an eFG% of 55.7) will return on the season, the defending champs have just enough talent, and of course, experience to compete in a playoff series regardless of who they play.
The Mavericks’ defensive rating is one of the worst in basketball (defensive rating of 116.4, ranked 23rd) but they still boast one of the best offensive tandems ever assembled in Luka Doncic (32.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and8.2 assists per game with an eFG% of 56.1 ) and Kyrie Irving (27.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game with an eFG% of 57.2), and because of that talent alone, will likely be in a first round series regardless of what seed they end up as.
Although they lack depth tremendously, the Thunder still have a lot of talent with Shai Gilgeous Alexander (31.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game with an eFG% of 53.1), Jalen Williams (13.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game with an eFG% of 56.4), Josh Giddey (16.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game with an eFG% of 51.7), and Lu Dort (13.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1 steal per game with an eFG% of 47.4).
The Pelicans are in the 12 seed, but Brandon Ingram (23.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game with an eFG% of 52) and C.J. McCollum (21 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game with an eFG% of 51.4) have been playing great, and Zion Williamson (26 points, 7 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game with an eFG% of 61.5) could be back in two weeks. If the Pels can tread water and somehow make the Play-In Tournament without their superstar big man, then they will be in a position to make a run, even if they are the 10 seed.
The Jazz are only a half game back of the 10 seed and Lauri Markkanen (25.7 points and 8.6 rebounds per game with an eFG% of 59.5 and and incredible PSA of 130.8, ranked in the 98th percentile for Forwards this season) continues to have one of the most efficient 25+ point per game seasons in NBA history. Role Players, Ochai Agbaji (who just had 27 points in a surprising win over the Kings on Monday), Kris Dunn (who has revitalized his career in Utah averaging 12 points and 5.2 assists per game this season), Walker Kessler (who will be a ROTY finalist will his innate defensive dominance) and Kelly Olynyk (12.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game with an eFG% of 57.8) have all stepped up recently and this team is a big-time contender for a Play-In spot.
The Lakers picked up a huge victory over the Suns on Tuesday night and are now just one game under .500 and two games back of the 5 seed in the Western Conference. Austin Reaves (22.8 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game with an eFG% of 64.7 over his last 5 games) has almost single-handedly kept the Lakers in a few games and has produced at an elite level recently. If Reaves can keep getting to the line and drawing fouls, then this Lakers team has the chance to pull off an upset in the Play-In Tournament and Playoffs, even as a 10 seed.
Alright, let’s get into predictions for how all this chaos is going to play out.
6th Seed: Golden State Warriors, Notable Remaining Games: Home vs. 76ers and Timberwolves, Away vs. Nuggets and Kings
The two point victory in Dallas a few nights ago did wonders for the Warriors, who will now have a four game home-stand against the 76ers, Timberwolves, Pelicans, and Spurs, a stretch they could very well go 4-0 over. Their only road games remaining are against the Nuggets, Kings, and Trail Blazers, and they realistically only need to win one of those games if they take care of business at home the rest of the season (which I think they will).
Despite Wiggins likely not making a return and the Warriors’ questionable defensive rating of 115 (ranked 19th in the NBA), they still have one of the five best players in basketball in Steph Curry, and a good enough supporting cast in Klay Thompson (21.8 points per game with a 3PT% of 40.5 and an eFG% of 55.3), Draymond Green (8.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game) , Donte Divincenzo (9.4 points per game with a 3PT% of 40), Jonathan Kuminga (9.8 points per game with a TS% of 58.9), and Kevon Looney (9.1 rebounds per game), to win enough meaningful basketball games down the stretch to secure the 6th seed and not even be in the Play-In Tournament.
Participants in the Play-In Tournament, 7-10 seeds:
7 seed: Dallas Mavericks, Notable Remaining Games: Home vs. Kings and Bulls, Away vs. 76ers, Heat, and Hawks
The Mavericks can’t fall out of the Play-In Tournament, right? They have two of the best offensive players in the history of the game on one team in Doncic and Irving, and even Rookie Jaden Hardy has been a spark off the bench and is averaging 20.3 points per game over his last 6 games.
Although their defensive rating of 116.4 is concerning (mentioned in the introduction), they have an offensive rating of 116.8 (ranked 6th in the NBA) and it just keeps improving each game. With home games against the Kings and Bulls, and tough road games vs. the 76ers (who they beat in their last matchup), Heat, and Hawks, the Mavs won’t have an easy time making it to the 7 seed, but they have just enough stardom to win them a few games they won’t be favored in.
8 seed: Lakers, Notable Remaining Games: Home vs. Bulls, Jazz, Thunder, Suns, Away vs. Bulls, Jazz, Clippers, Timberwolves
Putting the Lakers in the Play-In Tournament was very difficult, considering they still are without their best player, LeBron James (29.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game with an eFG% of 54.9), and they are possibly the most inconsistent team on this list. Some nights, they look like they could beat anyone in the NBA and are a sleeper to get to the Western Conference Finals, and other nights, they look like one of the four or five worst teams in the NBA. There is a chance the Lakers finish 12th in the standings, but there is also a slim chance they get all the way to the 6th seed and don’t even have to be in the Play-In Tournament.
Either way, they have one of the easiest remaining schedules of any of the teams on the bubble, with two games against the inconsistent Bulls, two games against the Jazz (who are right there with them in the standings), and one game against the Rockets. They picked up a huge win against the Suns and will likely lose to them the next time they play on April 7th, assuming Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton are back by then, but they should be able to at the very worst split vs. the Bulls and Jazz and beat the Rockets and Thunder. If they do that, then they just need to pick up one win out of two remaining matchups vs. the Clippers and Timberwolves to finish with 41 wins. On the other hand, it is also entirely possible they take care of business and beat the Bulls and Jazz twice, putting themselves in a great position at the end of the season.
9 seed: Minnesota Timberwolves, Notable Remaining Games: Home vs. Lakers, Pelicans, Blazers, Away vs. Warriors, Suns, Nets
Everything is starting to fall in place for the Timberwolves, as Anthony Edwards avoided a serious injury and should be back at the very least by next week, and Karl Anthony-Towns looked like his dominant self in his first game back. They have a .500 record and are in a good position right now, but with road games against the Warriors and Kings coming up, then a tough home game against the Lakers (who have been playing great defense recently) I don’t know if the Wolves can do enough to secure anything but a 9 seed. I think they will lose both road games in the Bay Area and perhaps even their home game against the Lakers over the next week.
They would then be 37-40 with 6 games to go and would still have to face the Suns and Nets (who are also fighting for a playoff spot) on the road, then the Pelicans at home. Despite an impressive win against the Hawks on Tuesday night, it remains evident that Rudy Gobert (15.9 points and 11.4 rebounds per game over his last 10 games) has a tough time playing alongside KAT and his offensive game that was starting to improve over the last four weeks withered away against the Hawks. I am still not a believer in playing two centers (one of which can’t shoot) on the court at the same time and I think opposing teams will be able to exploit them down the stretch because of it. As a result, they will be just behind the Lakers and Mavericks and get the 9 seed in the Play-In Tournament.
10 seed: Oklahoma City Thunder: Notable Remaining Games: Home vs. Grizzlies, and Suns, Away vs. Lakers, Warriors, Jazz
The Thunder have overachieved so far this season and they would be taking a huge step forward just making the Play-In Tournament, not even the playoffs. Over the last week they beat the Suns and the Clippers, both of which were games they weren’t supposed to win, and they are setting themselves up to be right in the mix of the Play-In Tournament down the final stretch of the season. I expect that to exactly happen, even though they are still the 11 seed at the moment.
Despite obvious star-power with SGA, Jalen Williams, and Josh Giddey, the Thunder still severely lack depth and have the toughest road schedule remaining of any of the teams on the bubble. Because of that, I just don’t see a scenario where they are anywhere above the 10 seed even with how great they’ve been playing. Nonetheless, they have the Hornets, Pistons, Pacers, and Trail Blazers (perhaps without Damian Lillard at that point) all games they should win, meaning they’ll at least get to 40-41 wins on the season without taking care of business against the Lakers, Grizzlies, Jazz, Warriors, or Suns.
Teams that will just miss the Play-In Tournament:
Utah Jazz, Notable Remaining Games: Home vs. Bucks, Nuggets, Suns, Away vs. Kings, Celtics, Lakers
The Jazz have possibly the toughest remaining schedule of any of the teams on the bubble and it will be extremely difficult for them to even go 4-6 over their last 10 games despite having such great players (Markkanen, Kessler, Agbaji, Clarkson, Olynyk..etc). Already outside looking in for a spot in the Play-In, the Jazz have one of the worst defenses in basketball (defensive rating of 116.5, ranked 24th in the NBA) and defense will be very important down the stretch when games start to matter more.
However, they also surprised a lot of people by defeating the De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis-led Kings earlier this week, without Markkanen and Clarkson, their two best players. I can never count this team out, but because of their tough schedule remaining, it will be very unlikely that they make the Play-In Tournament. Two games that could change their fate are two matchups against the Lakers in the final week of the season, who are fighting for the same spot.
New Orleans Pelicans: Notable Remaining Games: Home vs. Grizzlies, Kings, Knicks, Away vs. Warriors, Timberwolves, Clippers, Nuggets
The Pelicans could get Superstar big man Zion Williamson back by the end of the regular season, but it won’t matter because they have possibly the hardest remaining schedule of any teams on the bubble. Despite Brandon Ingram (26 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.1 rebounds with an eFG% of 54.5 over his last 10 games) and C.J. McCollum (20.7 points and 5.9 assists per game with an eFG% of over his last 10 games) balling out recently, and role players Trey Murphy (18.7 points per game with an eFG% of 64.2 over his last 10 games), Herb Jones (10.2 points and 1.8 steals per game with an eFG% of 58.6 over his last 10 games), and Jonas Valancuinas (18.4 points and 13.8 rebounds per game with an eFG% of 62.5 over his last 5 games) playing their best basketball of the year, that probably won’t be enough for the final stretch of the season.
The Pels have road games vs. the Warriors and Nuggets remaining (who both almost never lose at home), and the least favorable home schedule remaining as well with matchups against the Grizzlies, Knicks, and Kings. They are 36-37 and tied for the 9th spot right now, but I would be surprised if they even win four out of their last nine games and get to 40 wins, meaning they will likely finish 12th in the Western Conference.
Note: Advanced Statistics used in this article are gathered from Cleaningtheglass.com and Statmuse.com and are updated as of Friday, March 24th, 2023