How does the James Harden-Ben Simmons trade impact not only the Nets and 76ers, but the entire NBA
The blockbuster deal that was widely expected to happen was agreed upon before Thursdays trade deadline
Advanced statistics used in this article are from Statmuse.com, ESPN.com, and NBA.com.
The NBA will look different throughout the rest of the season unless you are watching the Lakers. Sorry, had to throw that in there as they stayed put and made no moves whatsoever at the deadline. Granted, it’s not like they had any pieces to trade that were intriguing to other teams anyways, so the best they can do is hope that they figure it out.
Regardless, tons of big-time trades were made this week in the NBA from Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield for Domantas Sabonis to a very odd and unnecessary Kristaps Porzingis for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans swap which made no sense to anyone except maybe the Mavericks as the Wizards jumped on that trade right away.
I could write a whole article detailing who I think won each trade, but this article, in particular, is discussing the big one where James Harden got what he wanted for a second straight trade deadline being sent to a new destination that would better suit a championship run in his mind. Ben Simmons also got what he wanted finally being traded to a big market team where he can get a fresh start.
Joining him in Brooklyn is sharpshooter Seth Curry, and rebounding machine Andre Drummond (among 2 first-round picks). Joining Harden in Philadelphia is veteran Paul Millsap, but both sides seemed to get what they wanted in this situation. Brooklyn knew that James Harden wanted out amidst all of the drama surrounding Kyrie Irving, the team’s 8 game losing streak, and Harden’s struggles in general.
Instead of trying to fix the relationship, they opted to get the best available package for Harden which was a deal centered on Ben Simmons.
Ever since Daryl Morey took over in Philadelphia as the General Manager he wanted a reunion with James Harden, who was the franchise player when he was running the Houston Rockets organization. Although Morey’s stubbornness by refusing to deal Simmons earlier this season could have cost him to wind up with nothing, it actually rewarded him with a superstar in James Harden to pair with franchise player Joel Embiid.
So who won the trade? How does this trade impact both teams’ outlooks on this season and beyond using advanced metrics?
The obvious answer is that the 76ers won the trade, getting a much-needed playmaking guard (someone they didn’t have before) and they really only had to give up a backup center and their best shooter. Simmons would have never suited up for Philadelphia anyways and he was as good as gone before this season even started, so he doesn’t count for what Philadelphia had to give up.
Harden’s offensive game will undoubtedly improve Philadelphia’s 12th ranked offensive rating of 111.4, but giving up Seth Curry is going to hurt more than most people think. Curry is one of the most efficient shooting guards in the NBA this season averaging 15 points per game with an eFG% of 58, a 3PT% of 40, and a TS% of 60, all of which are considered elite.
What is even more impressive is that Curry, even without a true playmaking point guard on the roster for the 76ers earlier this season was taking almost 6 3-pointers on average per game and was still over the 40% mark.
Curry is one of the best shooters in the NBA and Philadelphia now must rely on James Harden and Tobias Harris to improve their 33.2% and 34.6% 3PT shooting percentages dramatically.
Philadelphia is hoping that Harden’s playmaking and overall innate ability to impact the game at all times offensively, will translate to better 3PT percentages for the entire team, and although this assumption should turn out to be true, it hurts losing such a good shooter in Seth Curry.
Another promising aspect of this trade for Philadelphia is that their defense stayed intact since Simmons wasn’t playing anyways and they kept Thybulle, who is becoming one of the league’s best perimeter defenders. Philadelphia wasn’t a serious contender over the Bucks, Heat, or Nets before this trade, or and now they are the clear favorite besides Milwaukee to come out of the Eastern Conference.
Trade Grade for 76ers: A+++
Now lets move on to the Brooklyn Nets, who at full strength could have still made a run with Harden on their roster. Now, I do not think they have any shot at coming out of the Eastern Conference and here’s why. The Nets defense ranks 20th in the NBA anyways with a 111.4 defensive rating, so its not like simply acquiring Simmons is going to turn them into a top 10 defense. It will help don’t get me wrong, but what they gave up on offense is far more concerning.
The Nets still had the 13th best offensive rating in the NBA of 111.4 (exactly the same as the 76ers quite ironically) with Kevin Durant, Joe Harris, and Kyrie Irving all missing a ton of time. One may speculate that if they found a way to fix the relationship with Harden they would have had the #1 offense in the NBA when all of their pieces came back, just like last season.
However, this was not a realistic option and they had to give up Harden as he would not have re-signed in the offseason. Acquiring a defensive master and elite playmaker Simmons while also getting one of the most efficient and dominant shooters in the NBA in Seth Curry (with 2 protected first-rounders as well) is a big haul. Simmons will provide defense, and Curry will maintain his hot shooting stroke in Brooklyn. Since Brooklyn had to part ways with James Harden this is a big-time win for the Nets as well.
Trade Grade for Nets: A+++
I don’t think anyone truly won this trade as it benefited both sides tremendously. Simmons and Harden both wanted out desperately and they found attractive destinations for both of them.
Although Brooklyn didn’t need to improve its defense, it did, and Seth Curry also improves their 3PT shooting which has been lacking with Joe Harris being out this year due to injury. Kyrie Irving still remains the biggest enigma in the NBA.
If he can be available for his team at some point during this season, they could be lethal, but knowing Kyrie Irving, this team is going nowhere this season even with a healthy Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons. Granted, they were going nowhere with simply Harden and Durant either because of all of the drama surrounding Kyrie anyways.
Furthermore, both teams got a good deal in this blockbuster although only one team becomes a clear title favorite and that is the 76ers. The 76ers needed more star power and playmaking and they got both of that without sacrificing their solid defense and giving up Maxey or Thybulle.
The Nets have so much drama that even if they had kept Harden, they wouldn’t have gone anywhere anyway so they have a player in Simmons to build off of in the future, even if Kevin Durant leaves eventually.