Chaos Continues to Ensue in the West Standings Heading into the Weekend
Though the Clippers should be able to secure the 5th seed, the Warriors, Lakers, and Pelicans are still battling for the 6 and 7 seeds
Wednesday night’s matchups had huge implications on the Play-In Tournament, as the Clippers dominated the Lakers for an 11 straight time, the Pelicans stormed back from a big deficit and beat the Grizzlies (though it took more effort than they thought after the contest went to overtime following Memphis scoring 6 points in the final 11 seconds of regulation), and the Mavericks put together one of their best performances of the year to top the Kings.
The Clippers now just need to win their final two games against the Trail Blazers (without Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, and Anfernee Simons) and Suns (who likely will sit their guys as they have the 4 seed locked up) to finish as the 5 seed and avoid the Play-In Tournament. For some of “Clipper Nation”, facing the Suns in the first round without Paul George (23.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game with an eFG% of 53.6) isn’t ideal, as Phoenix is probably the favorite to come out of the Western Conference with a core of Kevin Durant (29.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5 assists per game with an eFG% of 61.3 and a PSA of 142.1, ranked in the 94th percentile for Bigs this season), Devin Booker (28 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game with an eFG% of 54.9 and a PSA of 122.6, ranked in the 81st percentile for Wings this season), Chris Paul (13.7 points and 9 assists per game with an eFG% of 50.6), and Deandre Ayton (18 points and 10 rebounds per game with an eFG% of 59.1).
However, the Suns also boast one of the worst benches in the history of basketball for a contender with the likes of Cameron Payne, Josh Okogie, and Terrence Ross competing to be the team’s 5th best player. That is where the Clippers can exploit them, as they boast one of the best benches in basketball with Bones Hyland, Norman Powell, Terance Mann, Robert Covington, Eric Gordon, and Mason Plumlee as pivotal depth pieces. Though most will focus on the superstardom and flashiness of the Suns starters, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Clippers take the Suns 6 or 7 or even win the series and fans should be prepared for one of the better first round matchups.
All hope is not lost for the Lakers, and one could make the argument that playing an overtime game the night before factored into the lackluster defensive performance fans aren’t accustomed to seeing from the league’s top ranked defense over the last 20 games. With both the Grizzlies and Kings losing last night and the Kings still being two games back with two games to go, Sacramento owns the tiebreaker over Memphis and theoretically it is still possible for them to obtain the 2 seed. That isn’t good news for the Warriors, who will face their final test of the season on the road against a very motivated Kings team that will be playing for the 2 seed and bragging rights in the Bay Area. Light the beam because it is certainly possible that the Dubs go 1-1 over their final two games.
What does this mean for the Lakers then? Well, Los Angeles is going to play
Phoenix at home Friday, who will likely sit Durant and Booker since they already secured the 4 seed, and then Utah on Sunday, who will have nothing to play for by then, meaning the Lakers should win out and give themselves the 7 seed at worst, and a good chance at the 6 seed. They will need help from the Kings, but with a tiebreaker over the Warriors, it is still very possible that the Lakers end up with the 6 seed despite another embarrassing loss to the Clippers.
If the Lakers do win out and the Warriors go 1-1, they will end up in the Play-In, but to avoid being the 8th seed, the Dubs need the Pelicans (who own the tiebreaker over them) to not win out. If the Warriors can win out, they will face Sacramento in the first round with the 6 seed secured. Nonetheless, regardless of their road struggles, and the possibility that they could end up in the Play-In Tournament, the Warriors have to be confident about their chances at getting back to the NBA Finals, as Andrew Wiggins (17.1 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game with an eFG% of 55.7) has returned to the team and will be available for the playoffs.
The Pelicans should be able to get the 7 or 8 seed depending on if they can win their last two games vs. the Knicks (who won’t play their guys considering they locked up the 5 seed) and the Timberwolves (which will be a bloodbath of a game that has implications on Play-In seeding). To get to 7, they will need to win out, the Lakers to win out, and the Warriors to lose one of their last two games. If the Warriors and Lakers win out, the Pelicans will be stuck with either the 8 or the 9 seed depending on whether they beat Minnesota or not.
With a win against the Kings last night, the Mavericks still have a chance at the 10 seed, but they will need some help from Oklahoma City. They are tied record wise, but the Thunder own the tiebreaker, so with two games to go, the Mavs just need to gain one game on OKC to make the Play-In Tournament. The Mavs final two games are against the Bulls and Spurs, both of which they should win considering the Bulls are locked into the 10th seed and have nothing else to play for and the Spurs are the Spurs.
The Thunder have a tough road game tonight vs. the Jazz, who theoretically can still make the Play-In Tournament with 3 straight wins (though they need the Mavericks to lose one of their final two games since the Mavs own the tiebreaker over the Jazz). The Thunder will then play the Grizzlies on Sunday, which only becomes an interesting matchup if Memphis loses to Milwaukee (who has already locked up the #1 seed) and the Kings win against Golden State on Friday. If Memphis isn’t playing for anything on Sunday, the Thunder should easily win at home to secure a playoff spot.
Furthermore, with so many scenarios that could unfold over this final weekend, it is going to be so fun to watch this chaos play out as a multitude of changes in the West standings could occur by Sunday night.
Note: Advanced Statistics used in this article are gathered from Cleaningtheglass.com and Statmuse.com and are updated as of Thursday, April 6th 2023.