Can the Lakers' season still be salvaged?
What do advanced statistics say about how the Lakers will fare in the play-in tournament and the playoffs if they can get in?
Advanced Statistics used in this article are from NBA.com, ESPN.com, and StatMuse.com.
The 2021-2022 Lakers are one of the most disappointing teams in the history of team sports history. There is no sugarcoating that. Originally viewed as a top seed and championship contender, the Lakers have fallen well short of those expectations.
Now 7 games under .500 with the 9 seed in the Western Conference, the Lakers may not even make the play-in tournament at this rate. The New Orleans Pelicans, who own the 10 seed, are only one game back, while the 11-seeded Portland Trailblazers are 3 games back. The Lakers had lost four games in a row before relying on a 37-year-old LeBron James to score 56 points in a win against the Warriors on Saturday night.
Now other players contributed too, not just James. Austin Reeves had 2 blocks and 3 steals to go along with elite perimeter defense. Carmelo Anthony had 14 points and 8 rebounds while hitting the dagger 3 pointer at the end of the game. Even Russell Westbrook played well with 20 points (until the last minute and a half where he made two careless turnovers).
There were a lot of positives coming out of that Warriors win that the Lakers can build upon to at least come away with a winning record in these last 19 games. However, this Warriors team simply isn’t the same dominant team we saw as NBA fans just two months ago.
With Draymond Green injured the Warriors have gone 15-15, but they have lost 8 out of their last 10 games. This is a completely different team when Green plays and without him they just aren’t that good, meaning the Lakers’ win isn’t as impressive as many people have given them credit for. Nonetheless, a win is a win and the Lakers desperately needed one.
In this disappointing season, a lot of times the Lakers’ body language implies that they have no hope and energy, and sometimes they just give up and lose many close games. Although they are .500 in games decided by 10 or fewer points on the season, they are only 4-7 in their last 11 games decided by 10 or fewer points.
What is even more interesting is that the Lakers have played 44 games already this season decided by 10 or fewer points. If the Lakers had even a 65% win percentage in those games they would be 7th seed in the Western Conference standings tied with the Timberwolves.
Without even looking further into advanced statistics, we can already take away that if the Lakers get better at closing games and win the majority of close games down the stretch, they will not only be the 9 seed, but will even have a shot at catching the Clippers for the 8th seed (even though they can’t beat the Clippers head-to-head to save their lives).
If we look further into how this team stacks up statistically to the rest of the NBA, it will almost certainly inform us that the Lakers should have a much better record than they do since they are only 7 games under .500 due to not closing games. In fact, the Lakers rank 17th in defensive rating at 110.7 (which is an improvement from their 24th ranked defensive rating just four weeks ago).
Their defensive rating could have been even higher if they hadn’t given up 123 points to the Pelicans, 132 points to the Clippers, and 116 points to the Warriors in 3 of their last 5 games. Defensively they are in the middle of the pack, but offense has been the Lakers’ big problem people reading this that have watched a multitude of recent Lakers games already knew that.
The Lakers are 24th in the NBA in offensive rating at 108.6 and that obviously needs to improve for them to do anything in the play-in tournament or the playoffs. Their team eFG% was over 54 and ranked 6th in the NBA just three weeks ago, but now their eFG% of 53.3 is 11th in the NBA. Their team TS% was also ranked in the top 8 just three weeks ago at over 57, but with recent FT% and 3PT% issues, it has plummeted to 16th overall at 56.2%.
Regardless of their bad offensive rating and recent decreases in advanced shooting metrics, just being 11th in eFG%, 16th in D-rating, and 16th in TS% alone, the Lakers should be one of the top 7 or 8 teams in the Western Conference. Yes, their efficiency on offense needs to improve as their 21st ranked Turnover% (or TOV%) of 14.6 and their 24th ranked Assist-to-Turnover ratio of 1.62 is causing their offensive rating to be so low even with above-average advanced shooting metrics.
So what conclusion can come of this? Well, the Lakers are a much better team than their record, regardless of what any media member or TV personality tells you. Yes, this team is disappointing considering many people thought, including me, that they would be a top 4 seed in the Western Conference and a championship contender.
However, they are much better than what you hear on TV and social media every day and advanced statistics prove that. If the Lakers can cut down on turnovers and start winning the majority of their close games in these last 19 games, they will be in a good position to make noise in the play-in tournament and the NBA playoffs.
However, two questions still remain. Firstly, Anthony Davis’ health is vital to the Lakers’ success. Will he be back in time for the play-in tournament? And how healthy will he be if the Lakers make a postseason run? Because he needs to be healthy for them to make any noise in the play-in tournament or the playoffs.
The Lakers were still a top 10 defensive-rated team with Anthony Davis this season, and without him, as mentioned above, both their defense and offensive efficiency have suffered tremendously. The second question is can the Lakers rely on LeBron James this much to win them games? Is this sustainable for a 37-year-old superstar?
I would say probably not, but I would never bet against LeBron James and his greatness. Only time will tell though, but the Lakers will be in a good position if they limit their turnovers, win some close games, and Anthony Davis comes back healthy.