Can Brandon Ingram lead the Pelicans to the Playoffs even without Zion Williamson?
Ingram put on an epic 40-point masterclass in a big win against Damian Lillard and the Blazers last night, but there is a lot of work ahead for the Pels
Though the New Orleans Pelicans are 31-33 and just 10th in the Western Conference standings, they were 3rd in the standings when star big man Zion Williamson (26 points, 7 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game with a TS% of 65.2, and he gets fouled on a remarkable 22.7% of his shot attempts) in December. Williamson went down on January 2nd and the Pelicans spiraled down the rankings, losing 18 of their last 26 games despite a 23-14 record beforehand. It is no secret that the path to the playoffs seems grim without Williamson, indicative of their record since he went down.
C.J. McCollum simply hasn’t had the season Pels fans had been hoping for, with an eFG% of just 51.1 and an abysmal PSA (points per 100 shot attempts) of 108.3, ranked in the 39th percentile for Combo Guards this season. Last year, McCollum was unstoppable after being traded to the Pelicans at the deadline, but his mid range shot isn’t falling like it was last year, and other guys expected to take a serious leap simply haven’t done so.
Herb Jones is only averaging 9.4 points per game with a 3PT% of 28.6 and a TS% of 53.5, despite averaging 9.5 points per game with a 3PT% of 33.7 and a TS% of 57.3 in his rookie season last year. Jose Alvarado (9 points, 3 assists, and 1.1 steals per game with a TS% of 52.5) was a revelation down the stretch last year, playing 6 less minutes on average that this season, but accumulating more steals in that span than this year.
Alvarado has been good, but simply hasn’t had the same defensive impact as last year. Jonas Valanciunas averaged 17.8 points and 11.4 rebounds per game with an absurdly productive 3PT% of 36.1 and TS% of 61.7 last season, but this year, despite Williamson yet again missing substantial time, is only averaging 14.2 points and 9.7 rebounds per game with a 3PT% of 33.7 and a TS% of 60.8. Like Jones and Alvarado, Valanciunas simply hasn’t had the same impact as last year.
Nonetheless, even with players underperforming, one guy can still lead them to the promised land and his name is Brandon Ingram. Like Williamson, Ingram has also missed a substantial amount of time this season (36 games in fact), but since his return, Ingram has put the Pelicans on his back, averaging 29.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.5 assists with a TS% of 59.1 over the last 10 games, despite being double covered on a lot of possessions and having to take a multitude of contested shots.
When the Pelicans needed him most in a pivotal game for seeding purposes last night against Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers, Ingram put together his best performance of the season scoring 40 points, dishing out 5 assists, and grabbing 6 rebounds in a 121-110 win. Ingram has taken his game to another level this year, getting to his spots with ease, being slow and methodical on a lot of possessions, and creating for others and not forcing shots when he can’t get to his spot. He looks even more dominant now than he did in the NBA Playoffs last season, and that will provide dividends for the Pels in the final stretch of the season.
The Pelicans have a tough next five games against the Warriors, Kings, Mavericks, Thunder, and Blazers, all team’s looking to do the same thing as them. The Warriors continue to win at home even without Stephen Curry as Klay Thompson has looked fantastic recently, the Kings are pushing the Grizzlies for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, the Mavericks are looking to piece some wins together before it’s too late with the lethal tandem of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, the Thunder will have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back once he clears health and safety protocols, and the Blazers still have a motivated Lillard. Even tough they have lost four out of their last five games and have tough competition ahead, it is hard to bet against Ingram the way he’s playing and I expect the Pelicans to at least claw their way into the Play-In Tournament even without Williamson.
Note: Advanced Statistics used in this article are gathered from Cleaningtheglass.com and Statmuse.com and are updated as of Thursday, March 2nd, 2023.