Best Remaining NBA Free Agents and Predictions on where they'll sign
There is a ton of value left on the FA market where contending teams can still drastically improve
Advanced Statistics used in this article are gathered from ESPN.com, StatMuse.com, and NBA.com.
The Kevin Durant/Kyrie Irving/Brooklyn Nets drama has put the free agent market at almost a complete halt and I don’t expect many of these talented FA’s remaining to sign until that situation is straightened out. Nonetheless, many teams still need to fill out their roster, including contenders such as the Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, New Orleans Pelicans, Miami Heat, and Philadelphia 76ers. Key free agents that have yet to put pen to paper are Hassan Whiteside, Collin Sexton, Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMarcus Cousins, Josh Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, and Carmelo Anthony.
Sexton is likely to re-sign with the Cavaliers whether it is accepting his qualifying offer of just over 7 million dollars or signing a short-term extension to prove his value on the offensive end of the court. It’s quite shocking that a guy who averaged over 24 points per game in his last full season has virtually no market. I get that the Cavaliers were amazing without Sexton last season, but 15-20 million a year for such a dynamic scorer seems like more than enough and not a reach whatsoever.
The Cavaliers’ latest reported offer was only 3 years, 40 million dollars which I’m sure was rejected immediately by Sexton and his camp. Regardless, some of these free agents may not have a team until training camp or whenever the Kevin Durant fiasco is figured out. The teams that are in on KD and Kyrie Irving are waiting to finalize their roster until they know who they will be trading and acquiring in a blockbuster deal. Therefore, it’s unlikely the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, and Phoenix Suns will make any roster moves until the Brooklyn situation concludes. Either way, with a ton of value still left on the market, here are my rankings and predictions for the top remaining free agents.
Hassan Whiteside, 7-0 C, Expected Salary: Veterans Minimum contract
It’s unbelievable that Whiteside is yet to be signed considering he finished 11th in PER (player efficiency rating) last season in very limited minutes (17.9 minutes per game). Still, Whiteside showed off his elite interior defense with almost 2 blocks and 7.6 rebounds per game. There have been pre-conceived notions and questions about Whiteside’s work ethic and commitment at times from many league insiders, but his production is undeniable and he can help a contender right now.
I thought Whiteside would have been a fantastic addition to the Lakers to solidify a dominant defensive interior core of Anthony Davis, Thomas Bryant, and Hassan Whiteside, but they went with Damian Jones instead. Jones is a great player, but Whiteside is elite and the statistics back that up. I think the Lakers panicked too early in their free agent signings (indicative of offering Troy Brown Jr. and Damian Jones on day 1) when they could have waited for Whiteside and then promoted Cole Swider and Scotty Pippen Jr. after the NBA Summer League. Instead, now both Brown Jr. and Jones hold two roster spots that could have been used for more value.
Nonetheless, I think that the Warriors are a sleeper to pick up Hassan Whiteside, who wouldn't have to play more than 15-20 minutes per game to be productive. The Warriors just signed Trevion Williams out of Purdue (great signing by the way) and Mac McClung (another fantastic move) both of whom should make the roster, but that shouldn’t prevent the Dubs from going after another interior defender for the veterans minimum contract in Whiteside.
Another sleeper for Whiteside is the 76ers, who don’t have Andre Drummond or DeAndre Jordan anymore. Doc Rivers loves athletic, defensive-oriented shot-blocking bigs and Whiteside would be the best he has had in a long time. In a similar situation to joining the Warriors, Whiteside wouldn’t be asked to do much except play defense and rebound for 15-20 minutes per game on a contending team.
Prediction: Whiteside signs with the 76ers on a Veterans Minimum Contract
2. Colin Sexton, 6-3 PG/SG, Expected Salary: 4 years, 70 million dollars
I fully expect the Cavaliers to retain Sexton and I don’t think he will accept his qualifying offer of just over 7 million dollars a year. Therefore, both sides will come to an agreement of 4 years, 70 million dollars (which is still a discount for Sexton) and he will be the 6th man for a playoff team in the Cavs. In Sexton’s last full season (2020-2021) he averaged 24.3 points, 4.4 assists, and 1 steal per game with an eFG% of 51.9 and a TS% of 57.3.
The efficiency isn’t great, which is why the Cavaliers aren’t budging on giving Sexton 20 million a year, but Sexton’s camp could have a nice argument in negotiations when bringing up his FT% and 3PT% of 81.5 and 37.1 respectively. Both indicators that Sexton will continue to shoot very well from beyond the arc, it's impressive that he even had those marks on a team that was terrible in the 2020-2021 season.
The spacing was awful, Darius Garland didn’t have a fantastic season and certainly wasn’t the playmaker he is now, and Sexton still was able to take over games offensively. On a team that has much better spacing and shooting for that matter now, Sexton should be able to thrive and become much more efficient from the field, especially since he won’t have to be the whole team’s offense. Even though he won’t start (and he shouldn’t start games, he should take on a Tyler Herro-type role), Sexton still brings a lot to the table and is still just 23 years of age.
Prediction: Sexton signs a 4 year, 70 million-dollar extension with the Cleveland Cavaliers
3. LaMarcus Aldridge, 6-10 PF/C, Expected Salary: Veterans Minimum Contract
Brooklyn needs to fill out their roster and if both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are back (which is becoming increasingly likely) they should look at the possibility of bringing back Aldridge who still brings a ton of value on the offensive end of the floor. Aldridge averaged 12.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1 block per game with an eFG% of 56.6 and a TS% of 60.4 in just under 22.3 minutes per game. His mid-range game is still solid and he shot almost 88% from the free throw line.
Despite his age and health issues (had to sit out/retire for a bit due to an irregular heartbeat), when Aldridge is healthy he is productive and the statistics back it up. Aldridge should receive interest from offensive-oriented teams such as the Hawks and Pelicans. I think Aldridge would be a great fit with both teams, but with E.J. Liddell tearing his ACL, there is an obvious hole at the power forward position for the Pelicans, who are looking to make a huge leap and contend next season.
Prediction: Aldridge signs with the New Orleans Pelicans on a Veterans Minimum Contract
4. Dennis Schröder, 6-1 PG, Expected Salary: 1-5 million dollars
Schröder will never get back the opportunity to sign a 4-year, 80 million-dollar extension with the Lakers as he surprisingly turned it down because he believed that his value was much higher. I respect the confidence but we all know how that turned out as Schröder signed a 5 million-dollar deal with the Celtics and the moment he was traded to the Houston Rockets, the Celtics went on their big second half of the season run (which ended in an NBA Finals appearance).
The Celtics thriving without Schröder is not entirely his fault, as he performed great when given the lead guard opportunity (multiple 25+ point games and even a 38-point dominant performance against the Milwaukee Bucks). Marcus Smart really wanted to become the point guard of this team and when he was promoted to lead-guard opportunities, there really wasn’t a role for Schröder.
He also got the short end of the stick on the Rockets who didn’t give Schröder an opportunity because they were just trying to get their younger players minutes in the midst of a rebuild. Don’t let that distract you from how solid of an NBA player Schröder is. One of the quickest and shiftiest playmakers in the NBA, Schröder will help any contending team out if they give him the opportunity. He is also a really good defender and helped the Lakers finish 1st in defensive rating in the 2020-2021 NBA season when he was at the helm of the lead guard position.
After playfully asking LeBron James if he could come back to the Lakers which fueled rumors about a reunion with the Lakers, no one should count out the possibility of that happening. Darvin Ham loves bulldog-type point guards who play defense and can lead the offense, and Schröder fits that build. However, with Scotty Pippen Jr. showing out in Summer League and Russell Westbrook possibly coming back, a reunion seems unlikely unless the Lakers move on from Westbrook and don’t land Kyrie Irving in a deal. I think that a reunion with the Hawks makes a lot of sense as Schröder can lead the 2nd unit off of the bench and thrive as the cornerstone of that unit.
Prediction: Schröder signs with the Hawks on a Veterans Minimum Contract
5. DeMarcus Cousins, 6-11 PF/C, Expected Salary: Veterans Minimum Contract
Cousins only played 48 games last season but still managed to average 9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game with an eFG% of 51.7 and a TS% of 56.7. Cousins will never be the same player he used to be, but he still has a ton of value because he’s a rare big that can space the floor and draw opposing defenders because of his shooting and playmaking.
With Ivica Zubac and Rookie Moussa Diabte as the only bigs on the roster, the Clips could give Cousins a lot of valuable minutes for a championship contender (which reportedly is exactly what Cousins wants, a defined role on a title-contending team). This is a match made in heaven and I think both sides benefit from a one-year veterans minimum deal.
Prediction: Cousins signs with the Clippers on a Veterans Minimum Contract
6. Montrezl Harrell, 6-7 PF, Expected Salary: Veterans Minimum Contract
Another guy whose value tanked with the Lakers is Montrezl Harrell who has been shipped around the league over the past couple of seasons despite consistent production on the offensive end of the floor. Everyone knows that Harrell’s biggest detriment is his defense, but for teams that need a forward to create inside and rebound at a high level, Harrell is exactly that guy. He averaged 13.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2 assists per game with an eFG% of 64.9 and a TS% of 68, all in just 23 minutes per game.
Harrell’s career trajectory has taken an unfair hit because more teams are valuing defense now than before, but ever since his breakout couple of seasons with the Clippers, Harell has been a lock-it-in 13+ point, 7 rebound per game player with a polished post game, who is also one of the most efficient players in the NBA. I think that the Pelicans could use Harrell, especially if they don’t sign LaMarcus Aldridge (because of the E.J. Liddell injury). The Atlanta Hawks and Brooklyn Nets could also benefit from signing Harrell.
Prediction: Harrell signs with the Nets for a Veterans Minimum Contract
7. Blake Griffin, 6-8 PF, Expected Salary: Veterans Minimum Contract
Griffin’s production has fallen off of a cliff since the 2018-2019 NBA season when he averaged 24.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game for the Detroit Pistons. After that season Griffin’s points per game have gone down dramatically every single season (15.5, 11, 6.4). Even though I wouldn’t consider Griffin a valuable player anymore, for the guys left on the free agent market, Griffin should still garner some interest from contending teams just based on his experience and name.
The Lakers have shown interest in Griffin recently, while his former team, the Brooklyn Nets, have been quiet since they are dealing with the KD/Kyrie situation. Either way, some team will sign Griffin to a vet minimum contract and I could see that being 76ers. They need another big man and although I think they end up signing Whiteside, Rivers will also lobby for his former superstar to join him in Philadelphia.
Prediction: Griffin signs with the 76ers on a Veterans Minimum Contract
8. Carmelo Anthony 6-8 SF, Expected Salary: Veterans Minimum Contract
Anthony actually had a very good season for a 38-year-old last year averaging 13.3 points and 4.2 rebounds per game with a 3PT% of 37.5, an eFG% of 54.4, and a TS% of 57.9. The Lakers and new coach Darvin Ham may be uninterested in bringing back Carmelo Anthony because he is such a liability defensively, but there is no denying that Anthony is a great spot-up shooter whose mid-range game is still elite.
Despite his age, the Portland Trailblazers, Charlotte Hornets, and Washington Wizards could all be interested since they all need more shooting and are looking to compete, not tank (at least for now as that could change by the trade deadline). I still think the Lakers only bring Anthony back if they are unable to trade Russell Westbrook and receive 3PT shooting via trade. If not, Anthony goes to the Hornets to play with a high-powered offense led by NBA star LaMelo Ball.
Prediction: Anthony signs with the Charlotte Hornets on a Veterans Minimum Contract
9. Jeremy Lamb, 6-4 SG, Expected Salary: Veterans Minimum Contract
Lamb only averaged 16.7 minutes per game for the Sacramento Kings last season, but still added some value on the court (52.1 TS%, 7.3 points per game, 32.4% from 3).
For a guy that is supposed to be a knockdown shooter, Jermey LAmb’s 32.4 3PT% is concerning and is likely why he is still unsigned. However, Lamb’s 84% mark from the free throw line is an indicator that his shot is still there and his 3PT% should only improve next season. The Kings already signed Lamb’s replacement in Malik Monk, but Lamb could return to the Kings with an even smaller role as a depth piece.
Prediction: Lamb signs with the Sacramento Kings on a Veterans Minimum Contract
10. Josh Jackson, 6-6 SG/SF, Expected Salary: Veterans Minimum Contract
Jackson isn’t the most coveted wing in the world, but he is still an above-average perimeter defender who is young (25 years of age) and athletic. Similar to Jarret Culver, Jackson still has value due to his age, wingspan, and once being a top prospect for the NBA. Although the shooting marks are awful (25.4% from 3PT range, 45.5 eFG%, and 49.1 TS%), Jackson should still garner some value, maybe back with the Detroit Pistons (where he had some success from 2020-2022). For a young team that still has a couple of roster spots, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pistons bring Jackson back. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he stays with the Kings who have two of his good friends from his Suns’ days, Richaun Holmes and Alex Len.
Prediction: Jackson signs with the Pistons on a Veterans Minimum Contract